2026-2027 Super El Nino

[EasternLI]

I think we'll see a pretty darn robust STJ, eventually. Remember there's some resistance in the pacific with the -PDO too. That's a battle royale there IMO but I think the sheer magnitude of this el nino overwhelms it. But it's going to take some time to do that. Aifs-ens would suggest we see it start to fire up a little bit towards mid Aug. Will be interesting to see if that's accurate and if it starts to ramp up more as we move towards autumn. If we see that, I'd feel more confident. 

 

As far as the QBO is concerned. That's an area of ongoing research. Which has been noticed more and more as an important factor in various areas. So it has been gaining more and more interest. Here's some newer work that also included the Pacific jet. The image below is actually a cross section of the jet in late winter. Same conclusion. El nino + WQBO is the combo for the strongest jet. ERA5 data in top row model runs in the rows underneath. 

 

QBOi El Niño–Southern Oscillation experiments: teleconnections of the QBO

https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/1419/2025/

 

Quote

In the subtropics, the QBO has a direct influence on the subtropical jet through its secondary circulation. Observational studies have indicated that the QBO can affect the subtropical jet variability, particularly in the Pacific sector (e.g. Garfinkel and Hartmann, 2011a, b). During QBO-W, a horseshoe-shaped zonal wind anomaly forms in the UTLS associated with an equatorward shift of the Asian-Pacific jet (APJ) (Crooks and Gray, 2005; Simpson et al., 2009) This response is evident even near the surface over East Asian (Park et al., 2022; Park and Son, 2022).

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I was just mentioning that your analog composite of <-60dm for DJFM is probably too low. I used 6 straight months of -PNA as an example. That doesn't mean I expect the PNA to be negative, just that there are competing forces right now. 

I understand all of that....and I have tried to explain to you that you are taking that composite far too literally....it's not a forecast composite....it does't even incorporate the extra tropical Pacific.  It's literally just a composite derived from solar, QBO and ENSO data, as that is how I assess the polar fields.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

I think we'll see a pretty darn robust STJ, eventually. Remember there's some resistance in the pacific with the -PDO too. That's a battle royale there IMO but I think the sheer magnitude of this el nino overwhelms it. But it's going to take some time to do that. Aifs-ens would suggest we see it start to fire up a little bit towards mid Aug. Will be interesting to see if that's accurate and if it starts to ramp up more as we move towards autumn. If we see that, I'd feel more confident. 

 

As far as the QBO is concerned. That's an area of ongoing research. Which has been noticed more and more as an important factor in various areas. So it has been gaining more and more interest. Here's some newer work that also included the Pacific jet. The image below is actually a cross section of the jet in late winter. Same conclusion. El nino + WQBO is the combo for the strongest jet. ERA5 data in top row model runs in the rows underneath. 

 

QBOi El Niño–Southern Oscillation experiments: teleconnections of the QBO

https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/1419/2025/

 

 

QBO is a great forecasting tool....I've been killing it the past couple years integrating the QBO with solar cycle.

[chris21]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

1997-1998 was a great example of what happens when the STJ overpowers the pattern with too much warmth. NYC only finished with 5.5 inches of snow that season. Many lows running to the Ohio Valley and then tracking very close to the area. I made a composite of the 12 heaviest precipitation days that winter. 
 

12 heaviest precipitation storm days in NYC during DJF 1997-1998 and the storm track progression 

 

 

Interestingly, this was one of the snowiest winters on record for the Southern Appalachians. 

[snowman19]

As expected:

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Back in May, Eric Webb argued that the ++PMM was acting as a defacto +PDO. +PMM or not, my guess is that we see a flip to a weak positive PDO by the end of fall given the historic strength and strong coupling of this El Niño

One thing is for sure, this El Niño looks more and impressively by the day, regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2 are in overdrive, as are the WWBs, subsurface, SOI and DWKWs….

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It would be interesting to know what caused the WWBs to be so much stronger this year than in 2023-2024 and 2015-2016? We noticed the record WWBs developing back in December north of Australia.

These record WWBs are the reason that this is turning into an east based event over the last month. Nino 1+2 has pulled just ahead of 1997-1998 and 3 and 3.4 are significantly ahead of 1997-1998. Nino 4 has been declining this month.

This is going to be a really extreme case study. Since these anomalies would allow the +30 C warm pool to get further east in the ENSO regions than it ever has been before.

 

[George001]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It would be interesting to know what caused the WWBs to be so much stronger this year than in 2023-2024 and 2015-2016? We noticed the record WWBs developing back in December north of Australia.

These record WWBs are the reason that this is turning into an east based event over the last month. Nino 1+2 has pulled just ahead of 1997-1998 and 3 and 3.4 are significantly ahead of 1997-1998. Nino 4 has been declining this month.

This is going to be a really extreme case study. Since these anomalies would allow the +30 C warm pool to get further east in the ENSO regions than it ever has been before.

 

If the model projections are correct this event will be the strongest in history by a wide margin. In my opinion this could actually make analog forecasting tougher, because even other super Ninos like 2015-2016, 1997-1998, 1982-1983 have a decent chance ending up a full 1C weaker than this event. I’d still use those years because they are the closest matches we have to this one, but this truly is a once in a lifetime Godzilla El Niño. I’m thinking we see almost a more extreme version of those super Nino years (eg even stronger STJ than 97-98), but I’m really not sure what the implications are. What are your thoughts? As a northern skier I’m not too happy about this developing Godzilla nino, but at the same time I’ve always been drawn to extreme weather events, so it will be interesting to keep following this and see how things play out regardless. This one has a good what 5 months left of strengthening and is already above 2C on the dallies for ENSO 3.4, 3C for ENSO 3, and 4C for ENSO 1.2, and the subsurface is much more impressive than even 97-98. So really no ambiguity here, this Nino already is a beast and will continue to break records.

[George001]

On 3/5/2026 at 9:30 PM, GaWx said:

Whew. All signs are increasingly pointing to a significant, if not strong to very strong, El Niño event. I'll have more to say in coming weeks & months, but for now I'll just say that this is increasingly likely to become a major regional-to-global climate driver in 2026-2027.

https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/2029694752199754045?

 

 

My thoughts on this newest Euro 3.4 prog:

- They’ve generally been getting stronger the last few months.

-This run implies a super Nino peak.

-Keep in mind, however, that this is a prog of ONI, not RONI. RONI currently is ~0.5C lower. So, this implies Aug RONI to be near +2.1 -0.5 = +1.6.

-Keep in mind that the Euro has a warm bias in 3.4 of several tenths. So, a bc prog of RONI would very likely be only in the low +1s range in Sept.

Wow this was back in March, well done.  Interestingly the spring predictability barrier went the other way in that guidance was underestimating the strength of the El Niño. Imo this was a very well predicted event, it tipped its hand early and guidance already was flagging a potential super Nino in late winter/early spring. The biggest events really do tip their hand early, I recall the subsurface began warming as early as February. At the time I didn’t think much of it, but in hindsight that was a sign of things to come.

[GaWx]

 Going back to when I started following the CFSv2 AAM forecasts in Nov of 2023, the latest release (7/28/26 0Z) easily has THE strongest CFSv2 ensemble forecasted mean AAM of any I’ve ever seen/saved. The mean exceeds +2.5 by day 8 (Aug 5th), +3.0 by day 16 (Aug 13th), and +3.5 by day 20 (Aug 17th)! Although days 1-7 are a little shy of the strongest for week one of the forecast, all of the days day 8 to the end (day 32) are THE earliest periods in the forecast to get that strong of those that I’ve saved. Granted these have a notable +AAM bias starting ~day 15 that rises further with time as I’ve noted a number of times. But regardless, this one is very strong by day 8, which is early enough to be fairly reliable, and this run is as I said the strongest of any run that I’ve seen as a whole, which bodes well for the chance for a very strong +AAM dominating at least through the 1st 1/2 of August:

[Keith Central PA]

17 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

La Niña or cold neutral is likely after any super Nino because the cold waters in the W pac propagate eastward/promote trades, and a lot of the ocean heat in the tropics is released into the atmosphere. 

Most Super Nino's lead to La Nina's the next year..66,73,83,98 and 2016..looks like this one will be no exception.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

If the model projections are correct this event will be the strongest in history by a wide margin. In my opinion this could actually make analog forecasting tougher, because even other super Ninos like 2015-2016, 1997-1998, 1982-1983 have a decent chance ending up a full 1C weaker than this event. I’d still use those years because they are the closest matches we have to this one, but this truly is a once in a lifetime Godzilla El Niño. I’m thinking we see almost a more extreme version of those super Nino years (eg even stronger STJ than 97-98), but I’m really not sure what the implications are. What are your thoughts? As a northern skier I’m not too happy about this developing Godzilla nino, but at the same time I’ve always been drawn to extreme weather events, so it will be interesting to keep following this and see how things play out regardless. This one has a good what 5 months left of strengthening and is already above 2C on the dallies for ENSO 3.4, 3C for ENSO 3, and 4C for ENSO 1.2, and the subsurface is much more impressive than even 97-98. So really no ambiguity here, this Nino already is a beast and will continue to break records.

I'd bet against this being once in a lifetime given the acceleration of CC....it's not a coincidence. 

[GaWx]

-July’s -SOI, which is headed toward sub -25, is going to end up the strongest on record by a wide margin. The current record July -SOI is 1965’s -21.0. The next lowest are at -19.8 (1905 and 1882).

 This will at least give support to the progged record rate of warming of 3.4 within 30 days being shown by several models between the means for July and Aug of 2026.

-The avg of June and July is also headed to a record low. The current record is the -23.8 of 1905.

-The beauty of the SOI is that it apparently isn’t biased to any significant degree in any direction by CC. Thus, this measure is one of the most objective ways to measure the strength of ENSO without having to worry about GW/looking at relative vs raw.

[snowman19]

This Nino is about to go nuclear:
 

^ IMO the subsurface peaks at or around +12C. And the EURO keeps getting stronger with the next WWB forecast for August, which is going to cause another DWKW:



Here comes the NH coupling:
 

The IOD is now officially positive:



And the “ELI” ENSO Longitude Index, which measures how far east or west the deep convection/forcing (standing wave) is, is now in 2nd place for the furthest east on record to date. Only, you guessed it, 1997, was further east and not by much. With the 30C isotherm east of the dateline, it’s virtually guaranteed that this year takes 1st place on that index soon for having the furthest east main tropical convective forcing:
 
 

 

ELI:

 

@LakePaste25
 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

The Pacific mid-latitude SSTs are also near the record for the date. This has helped to drive the daily -PDO closer to -2. So no surprise that global SSTs are at record levels also.

 

 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^This is going to be about the best El Nino/-PDO analog we are ever going to get. You can probably also flip this Fall/Winters anomalies around in the future for La Nina/+PDO

[EasternLI]

Yeah, it's up up up and away with the AAM it sure seems. You can see what's been driving that so far too. The SH and the tropics. The tropics for obvious reasons. NH hasn't been involved. Feels like the PDO would have some kind of hand in something like that. The south pacific jet though has been impressive. It's also been slamming into the Andes mountains creating periods of +MT. Giving boosts to the AAM. A very slight relaxation after mid July, but the far right of the chart shows it's already firing up again. There was actually a decent -MT recently during that relaxation and AAM remained quite elevated anyway. Now it's climbing again and slated to continue for the same reasons as before. Wait until the NH starts getting more involved in addition to all of that. Models suggesting that could begin to occur as soon as mid August. Will be interesting to see if that timeframe gets delayed or not. 

 

[snowman19]

^ Holy GLAAM!

 

 

I may have underestimated the MEI. Given this extreme coupling, it may have already hit +2 this month, I was thinking August. Now, I think we rival, if not exceed the all time highest MEI on record of +2.9 (set during the 1982-83 super El Niño). Breaking the all time traditional ONI and RONI is a guarantee 

[raindancewx]

Last I looked, Jun-Jul precip totals here were tracking pretty close to 1982. That's generally a sign that pressure patterns and moisture levels are similar. Much colder/wetter than 2023 so far.

1	2023-07-29	T	0
2	1980-07-29	0.09	0
3	1958-07-29	0.36	0
-	1951-07-29	0.36	0
5	2011-07-29	0.39	0
6	1942-07-29	0.41	0
7	1995-07-29	0.52	0
8	2003-07-29	0.61	0
-	1947-07-29	0.61	0
10	1994-07-29	0.66	0
-	1993-07-29	0.66	0
12	1962-07-29	0.71	0
13	1977-07-29	0.73	0
14	2026-07-29	0.80	1
15	1982-07-29	0.86	0
16	2016-07-29	0.87	0
17	1953-07-29	0.88	0
18	1945-07-29	0.89	0
19	1971-07-29	0.93	0
20	1934-07-29	0.98	0

Highs are close too for July 1-29

1	2023-07-29	99.2	0
2	1980-07-29	99.0	0
3	2003-07-29	97.2	0
4	1978-07-29	97.1	0
5	1951-07-29	96.1	0
6	2016-07-29	95.9	0
-	1979-07-29	95.9	0
8	1994-07-29	95.7	0
9	1983-07-29	95.2	0
10	1963-07-29	95.0	0
11	2026-07-29	94.8	1
12	2011-07-29	94.7	0
13	1993-07-29	94.6	0
-	1982-07-29	94.6	0
-	1934-07-29	94.6	0
16	1954-07-29	94.4	0
17	2005-07-29	94.3	0
-	1981-07-29	94.3	0
19	1995-07-29	94.0	0
-	1953-07-29	94.0	0
21	1947-07-29	93.8	0

[George001]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

^ Holy GLAAM!

 

 

I may have underestimated the MEI. Given this extreme coupling, it may have already hit +2 this month, I was thinking August. Now, I think we rival, if not exceed the all time highest MEI on record of +2.9 (set during the 1982-83 super El Niño). Breaking the all time traditional ONI and RONI is a guarantee 

Yep, we are going to shatter the old records. The daily Nino 3.4 already is above 2C before August, and the subsurface warmth continues to go nuclear. I’m taking the over on ONI and RONI >3C

[Jebman]

Extending that Y-axis is extremely good news for me.

BRING IT THE HELL ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[snowman19]

Comparison of the difference in SSTs, last summer to this summer, same time frame….huge wow, night and day, not just at ENSO, but the +PMM as well. You can also see the IOD flip to positive with the big cooling in the eastern IOD region around Indonesia, not shown but there has also been very substantial warming in the western IOD region

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^This is going to be about the best El Nino/-PDO analog we are ever going to get. You can probably also flip this Fall/Winters anomalies around in the future for La Nina/+PDO

This July was the opposite temperature composite from the other developing super El Niño years.

Notice the record warmth focused in the Rockies and Upper Plains. Rapid City, SD just tied their warmest July.

That’s where the coolest anomalies during the July super El Niños were focused in the past. Notice the past developing super El Niños were among the coolest.

 

 

Time Series Summary for Rapid City Area, SD (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Warmest Average Temperatures
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2026	79.7	2
-	2007	79.7	0
2	2006	79.3	0
3	2012	78.4	0
4	2002	78.3	0
5	1954	77.7	0
6	1974	77.3	0
7	2017	77.1	0
8	2003	77.0	0
-	1989	77.0	0
9	1955	76.9	0
10	1960	76.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for Rapid City Area, SD (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Coolest Average Temperatures
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1992	64.3	0
2	1993	65.1	0
3	1972	65.6	0
4	1950	66.9	0
5	1958	67.0	0
6	1971	68.0	0
7	2009	68.1	0
8	1944	69.0	0
9	1968	69.1	0
10	1962	69.2	0
11	2014	69.5	0
12	2018	70.2	0
13	2010	70.4	0
-	1979	70.4	0
14	2023	70.5	0
15	2019	70.6	0
-	1995	70.6	0
-	1967	70.6	0
16	1994	70.7	0
-	1982	70.7	0
-	1973	70.7	0
-	1948	70.7	0
17	1996	70.8	0
-	1986	70.8	0
-	1951	70.8	0
18	1997	70.9	0
19	2015	71.0	0

[EasternLI]

This area of very warm water pooling that I circled. There's something really curious about that. It's exactly in the region with suggested links to PDO transitions. With a super nino inbound that's fascinating. 

 

[snowman19]

This area of very warm water pooling that I circled. There's something really curious about that. It's exactly in the region with suggested links to PDO transitions. With a super nino inbound that's fascinating. 
 

Also of note, that 30C warm pool keeps migrating further and further east of the dateline, pushed by the non stop WWBs