2026-2027 Super El Nino

[LakePaste25]

Jet extension is going full steam in the southern hemisphere winter, with copious amounts of snow in the Andes:

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Absolutely classic, strong El Niño VP and OLR standing wave convection in place in the PAC now. Fully coupled and Bjerknes feedback has become well established, making it a self-sustaining system. The MJO waves are constructively interfering as well. In your maps, you can see the subsidence around the MC and Indonesia, which is only going to increase when the +IOD gets established over the next month.
 
It’s off to the races now with another massive WWB coming up and another DWKW barreling itself east to warm the subsurface and surface even more, I think we see anomalies reach +10C to +12C in the subsurface in the coming weeks

This is a textbook east-based (EP) event:






And that OHC….wow

Your Modoki Nino composite has cool anomalies in the east greater than warm anomalies in Nino 4. That's not accurate. Actually, a Modoki Nino typically has no negative anomalies anywhere in ENSO. +0.4c max in the west vs -0.6c max in the east is not an El Nino.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

Jet extension is going full steam in the southern hemisphere winter, with copious amounts of snow in the Andes:

It looks like that Southern Hemisphere version of PNA is coming along pretty nice. TT only has 2m, if someone has global 500mb anomaly for GEFS and EPS can you post the link?

384hr 12z GEFS

[jaxjagman]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Absolutely classic, strong El Niño VP and OLR standing wave convection in place in the PAC now. Fully coupled and Bjerknes feedback has become well established, making it a self-sustaining system. The MJO waves are constructively interfering as well. In your maps, you can see the subsidence around the MC and Indonesia, which is only going to increase when the +IOD gets established over the next month.
 
It’s off to the races now with another massive WWB coming up and another DWKW barreling itself east to warm the subsurface and surface even more, I think we see anomalies reach +10C to +12C in the subsurface in the coming weeks

This is a textbook east-based (EP) event:






And that OHC….wow

Thats not going to ever happen with the EWB off SA.These winds are killing KW from getting that far east and the MJO should go back into the WP,if anything you might see an expansion  from downwelling but 10-12/Not going to happen

[LakePaste25]

14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It looks like that Southern Hemisphere version of PNA is coming along pretty nice. TT only has 2m, if someone has global 500mb anomaly for GEFS and EPS can you post the link?

384hr 12z GEFS

They exist on Tropical Tidbits, but they’re smoothed 5 day means. World view.

 

[michsnowfreak]

On 7/16/2026 at 10:01 AM, GaWx said:

This map agrees with many of the official SE station temps being NN (and even BN in FL as Jacksonville and other official temps confirm). It also shows that the torch was centered in the Midwest and Plains with no torch near the E coast (ex: NYC was ~+1.3F, not a torch). Much of NE coast was only 1-2 F AN per the city by city official temps.

 

On 7/16/2026 at 9:37 AM, csnavywx said:

Here's the continental composite using the 1861-1900 average to detrend. Note that a simple detrend, while helpful, still assumes that SST changes since then will scale linearly in terms of forcing (almost certainly not going to be the case). Nevertheless, the overall pattern makes it clear that the continent will mostly suffer from high frequency intrusion of downslope events, enhanced by anomalous moisture transport and a surplus moist static energy.

Interesting to see a map of 1877-78. I knew the core of warmth was in the upper midwest, because while it was certainly a mild winter at Detroit, it wasnt nearly as extreme as in Minneapolis.

Ive mentioned it before, but the 1875-1882 period had a very odd "every other year" pattern locally of very cold winter followed by very mild winter. 1875-76, 1877-78, 1879-80 & 1881-82 were all warm winters overall. I have no idea how ENSO played into it outside of 1877-78.

1877-78 at Detroit (using present-day departures):

Nov: 39.2F (-2.0F)....Snow 1.0" (-0.9")
Dec: 38.1F (+6.8F)....Snow 1.9" (-7.0")
Jan: 27.3F (+1.5F)….Snow 23.1” (+9.1”)
Feb: 29.2F (+1.2F)….Snow 17.4” (+4.9”)
Mar: 41.3F (+4.1F)…Snow M (est 1-2"))
Apr: 53.4F (+4.5F)…Snow 0 (-1.5”)

Huge storm Jan 31st (14.8"). 

The winter followed a somewhat similar path as other strong Ninos in that there were some very good winter blasts but the warmth won out. And realistically, thats the best formula to run a strong Nino in the north. You want that roller coaster up and down, helps with some good storms and assures you get some arctic blasts with the warm spells. Way better than mundane, stagnant 40s every day.

[Jebman]

4 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Jet extension is going full steam in the southern hemisphere winter, with copious amounts of snow in the Andes:

 

Man I wish they had a live webcam - They make Mammoth Ski Resort look like the DMV in a La Nada winter.

I am SOOOOOOOO damn Jealous of all their snow.

I'd love to kick back on a Texas lawn chair on their ski parking lot and watch that snow pile up all around me lol.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, Jebman said:

I am SOOOOOOOO damn Jealous of all their snow.

I'd love to kick back on a Texas lawn chair on their ski parking lot and watch that snow pile up all around me lol.

I've always wanted to do that. In Mt. Shasta, CA the mountain clears completely in the Summer, then in September/October huge amounts of snow start piling up on the top. How cool would it be to camp on top of that mountain when the first 4-8' falls? It's easy to climb to. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Another Aleutian ridge! Since the El Nino began, N. Pacific ridge vs troughs lasting 5 days more more: 6-0. July will likely be the 6th consecutive month of -PNA

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

@Gawx

[EasternLI]

I wanted to make a post about this last fall, never got around to it. Watching a super nino develop now, and drinking some surfside iced tea's, I feel compelled once again to bring up something that's kind of interesting. Perhaps a clue that a super nino would have been on the horizon the following year? I thought the severely negative IOD last year was quite interesting. I had found a paper at that time discussing purely very strong negative IOD events. 

 

Diversity of strong negative Indian Ocean dipole events since 1980: characteristics and causes

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-023-07008-x

 

Notice the years where the strongest of negative IOD events occurred...

 

Quote

In this study, the diverse features of four strongest negative Indian Ocean dipole (nIOD) (1996, 1998, 2010 and 2016) since 1980 are quantitatively examined.

 

It's really interesting to me how 3 out of 4 of those years came on the heels of very respectable el nino years. But one however did not, and that one occurred the year prior to a super el nino. That one occurred prior to 97-98. 

 

They noted that three of those events are attributed to monopole events (mainly the warmth in the east). Not surprising, these three are the ones following the respectable el nino years.

 

Quote

 The growth of SSTA in Dipole Mode Index (DMI) indicates one event (1996) being a dipolar pattern and the other three (1998, 2010 and 2016) being monopolar patterns during their mature phases.

 

The one year that was an actual dipole and featured the cooling in the west in conjunction with the warming in the east. Had the super el nino the following year (97-98). Unlike the others. 

 

Quote

During 1996 case, SSTA in west (IOD-W) and east (IOD-E) poles are both significant and comparable though with different physical origins. Effective Bjerknes-feedback dominated in accumulating warm-water in IOD-E and Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) activity constructively enhances this IOD-E warming, while the heat loss induced by the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) and cloud-radiation-SST feedback lead to a fast and profound cooling in IOD-W. Developing on a non-La Niña background, the IOD-E warming is initiated with positive heat flux anomalies that lead the linear temperature advection by 1-month(s), indicating this dipole pattern as a local independent event that possibly triggered by interior-basin disturbances in the Indian Ocean (IO).

 

The authors attribute that lone occurrence to local processes (in the IO) mainly. The other monopole cases are attributed to WWB in the IO which have links to enso. So when we look at last years case, what is the prognosis of that one? Clearly, there was no respectable el nino the year prior. Clearly, it was of the dipole variety in the sst anomaly data (image below). So it's interesting as hell to me watching this super el nino developing now. Potentially record breaking at that, following after a type of negative IOD which only really matches the year prior to 97-98. (I think the PDO is a major difference from that year specifically. May try to dig into that more later) Cheers.

 

[EasternLI]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Another Aleutian ridge! Since the El Nino began, N. Pacific ridge vs troughs lasting 5 days more more: 6-0. July will likely be the 6th consecutive month of -PNA

 

Personally, I have a sneaking suspicion that the reason for that is a long term deep multidecadal -pdo state (since 2000). Which is evident on the H300 PDO plots (image below). I'm wondering if this might mitigate the super el nino effects somewhat. As there is research out there suggesting that possibility. Sort of would explain the lack of the north Pacific low thus far... If / when one would develop. It would explain it being weaker than one would expect in a super el nino according to said research. This is also quite interesting...

 

[snowman19]

[EasternLI]

Ah, but are we talking sst pdo, or upper air pdo (like the one I posted)?

[LakePaste25]

IMO, I think of the PDO like snow cover. If a large area has deep snow cover (or lack thereof), it can enhance (or weaken) a polar high, which can impact an individual storm track. But it can only do so much. If you have a cutter going into ORD, snow cover in new england or the mid atlantic won’t stop it from cutting. And over time, as we know, those repeated cutters will weaken the snow cover. 

So think of the super Nino as the pattern driving the cutters, and the -PDO as the snow cover. The super Nino will continuously override it over time with a zonal jet until it flips to +PDO. I know this is not a perfect analogy because El Niños mean less cutters literally. But you get the idea. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

PDO is less related to ENSO than people think. Maybe more so west-based events correlate, but east-based events primarily effect the North Pacific High 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

IMO, I think of the PDO like snow cover. If a large area has deep snow cover (or lack thereof), it can enhance (or weaken) a polar high, which can impact an individual storm track. But it can only do so much. If you have a cutter going into ORD, snow cover in new england or the mid atlantic won’t stop it from cutting. And over time, as we know, those repeated cutters will weaken the snow cover. 

So think of the super Nino as the pattern driving the cutters, and the -PDO as the snow cover. The super Nino will continuously override it over time with a zonal jet until it flips to +PDO. I know this is not a perfect analogy because El Niños mean less cutters literally. But you get the idea. 

I think there are global things in motion/phase, and you see this reflected in the PDO. I agree SSTs are secondary to air patterns. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

39 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

 

Personally, I have a sneaking suspicion that the reason for that is a long term deep multidecadal -pdo state (since 2000). Which is evident on the H300 PDO plots (image below). I'm wondering if this might mitigate the super el nino effects somewhat. As there is research out there suggesting that possibility. Sort of would explain the lack of the north Pacific low thus far... If / when one would develop. It would explain it being weaker than one would expect in a super el nino according to said research. This is also quite interesting...

 

Honestly the pattern since 1998 looks like a Hadley Cell expansion, which you see in both the North and South Hemisphere, which usually points to equilateral Pacific as a main cause

[raindancewx]

The PDO should continue to erratically weaken with this event toward neutral. You probably will see it move slightly positive in a few months from Oct-May, but on net I still expect it to be about neutral. I've always found if PDO & Nino 1.2 are opposite states in October, that's when you start to see rapid regression of the PDO toward Nino 1.2. But the movement toward the 1.2 state is sort of dependent on far out 1.2 is from local averages and the PDO baseline. 

1.2 is where water below the surface comes up and fills into the rest of the ocean which changes the dynamics in the North Pacific eventually. With more storminess in the North in fall-spring, its harder to change what areas of water are warmer/colder than average from sunlight/high pressure (almost no sunlight in Fall-Spring in the North, especially if stormy), so at that point you're seeing current driven changes. With only ~8 hours of day light at 50N in winter, relatively rapid fluctuations in SSTs v. means have to be tied to storminess/current changes.

Globally, July SSTs look like a 1972/1991/2023 blend to me, with 2015 in there weakly too. 1997 had a very positive +PDO already by July, as did 2014. 2015 had so much warm water in the N. Pacific that is sort of mechanically forced the PDO negative by making the cold tongue east of Japan warm too.

 

[EasternLI]

8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Honestly the pattern since 1998 looks like a Hadley Cell expansion, which you see in both the North and South Hemisphere, which usually points to equilateral Pacific as a main cause

Actually, I think that makes a lot of sense. As the long term trend of the H3 PDO had been signaling something similar. The biggest question IMO, is do we see a change going into the 2030's. Mixed feelings on that.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, EasternLI said:

Actually, I think that makes a lot of sense. As the long term trend of the H3 PDO had been signaling something similar. The biggest question IMO, is do we see a change going into the 2030's. Mixed feelings on that.

Will definitely be interesting to see how it progresses through the rest of this year with Super Nino! Battle of forces! If the PDO holds neutral or negative through the Winter it's probably going back to negative after this year. I don't intuitively feel like we will see a lot of -500mb in the North Pacific this year, but I could be wrong! 

[LakePaste25]

56 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Honestly the pattern since 1998 looks like a Hadley Cell expansion, which you see in both the North and South Hemisphere, which usually points to equilateral Pacific as a main cause

The lack of H5 over the central equatorial pacific does indicate a skew towards La Niña the last 20-30 years, which could also be contributing. I don’t have the research handy, but climate models argue that more frequent La Niña will not be the case long term. Possibly a temporarily aberration the past couple of decades. We are probably due for a major decadal regression the other way. Not necessarily right now, but it could happen eventually. 

[MarcmmKU]

On 7/14/2026 at 4:38 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Thats all good points. I feel like the excess moisture is a huge thing. The assumption that El Nino always means dry has been failing in recent years, especially with stronger Ninos. Really thinking we get some good wet paste storms this year. 

The wet paste low ratio dense snow is the prettiest looking. It clings to everything and whitens everything up better.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

The lack of H5 over the central equatorial pacific does indicate a skew towards La Niña the last 20-30 years, which could also be contributing. I don’t have the research handy, but climate models argue that more frequent La Niña will not be the case long term. Possibly a temporarily aberration the past couple of decades. 

You can really see it in the SOI over the last 30 years. We are breaking it hard now however, but if the N. Pacific Hadley Cell was +SOI driven it should be reversing around now and that has not happened yet but it is mid-warm season

Streak of the last 30 years really makes the current -26 30-day that much more impressive. I think I calculated something like 72% of months were +SOI since 1998. 

[raindancewx]

My local indicators based on Summer don't support full-on idealized El Nino conditions locally. I have two approaches for that:

Low Solar + ENSO Prior + ENSO Current. So ideal is a) solar minimum plus b) big La Nina in prior winter c) big El Nino in current winter.

Factors B/C are relational - cold winters here are directly correlated to the biggest warm-ups y/y in Nino 3.4.

2023-2024 was a notable failure - although that's likely due to both high solar and the strong -PDO offsetting a strong y/y warm up to some extent (Nino 3.4 warmed +2.4C from 2022-23 to 2023-24 in Nino 3.4, v. +1.7C from 2017-18 to 2018-19, but 2018-19 had low solar, and a neutral PDO. So with solar/PDO more favorable 2018-19 was much colder than 2023-24 even though 2023-24 was stronger.)

2018-19 netted out to about 2.2F colder than the 1991-2020 average high, while 2023-24 was 1.1 warmer than that 1991-2020 average high.

For 2026-27, you have potentially:

+3.5C in Nino 3.4 (biggest gain on record, call it  -0.4C to +3.1C in DJF y/y)

High Solar (75-100 sunspots for July 2026-June 2027)

So I'd expect temps colder than 2023-24 locally as both the SST gain and solar conditions are better, especially with the -PDO looking weaker. The biggest misses on this image are also tied to volcano influenced El Ninos (1963-64 Agung is the big cold miss, 1994-95 is the big warm miss (54F) and then 2023-24 (Tonga?). Low solar is more directly correlated to lower lows and less rain/snow here, but it tends to indirectly make highs colder too (El Ninos starting 1963, 1965, 1976, 1986, 1997, 2006, 2009, 2018 are all low solar and very cold here).

My other indicator is Summer conditions.

Snowy winters tend to follow Summers that are cold in June-Sept, El Nino, with a wet Monsoon, and three years or more since above average snow.

Right now, we're on track for:

Hot June (-) / Hot July (-) / Mild/Hot Aug (= or -) /Mild/Hot Sep (= or -)

Dry Monsoon (-) /El Nino (+) / ENSO + Monsoon (=) / Duration since big Winter (+)

The monsoon could still flip. But I doubt we get a cold Aug AND Sept.

Best case: There was a signal in the data locally, hottest Marches on record tend to precede cold August unusually often. Same for extreme -WPO/+NAO Marches.

That would need to coincide with a wet month. So -

Good (El Nino, Wet Monsoon, ENSO + Monsoon, Aug Cold, Duration since big winter)

Neutral (Hot Sept)

Bad (Hot Jun, Hot July)

Nets Out to ~10 inches of snow based on my historical testing, and that'd be accurate within 4 inches of snow in 70%+ of all cases.

 

I need to dig out some of my older research. I have it on a blue thumb drive somewhere.

[raindancewx]

These are your y/y changes in 27.0C DJFs in Nino 3.4 winters.

I've also found this to be essentially four real patterns: Cold South/Warm North, Cold SW/NE, Cool East/Warm West, Cold East/Hot West. 

El Nino Y/Y Change Nino 3.4
1951 +1.3
1953 +0.4
1957 +2.0
1958 -1.2
1963 +1.5
1965 +2.0
1968 +1.7
1969 -0.6
1972 +2.5
1976 +2.3
1977 +0.0
1982 +2.2
1986 +1.7
1987 -0.4
1991 +1.3
1994 +0.9
1997 +2.7
2002 +1.0
2004 +0.2
2006 +1.6
2009 +2.3
2014 +1.0
2015 +1.9
2018 +1.7
2019: -0.3
2023 +2.4
2026 +3.1?

Look at the signals -

+2.0C gain or more: 1957, 1965, 1972, 1976, 1982, 1997, 2009, 2023

+1.0C to +1.99C gain: 1951, 1963, 1968, 1986, 1991, 2002, 2006, 2014, 2015, 2018

+0.0C to +0.99C gain: 1953, 1977, 1994, 2002, 2004, 2014

<0.0C gain: 1958, 1969, 1977, 1987, 2019

 

Big Gain El Ninos (2.0C or greater warmer y/y in Dec-Feb). Coldest Southeast US.

Average Gain El Ninos (1-2C warmer y/y Dec-Feb). Coldest SW & NE US.

Small Gain El Ninos (0-1C warmer y/y Dec-Feb). +PDO driven / cold East & warm West.

Small Loss El Ninos (0-1C colder y/y Dec-Feb than prior El Nino, but still El Nino). All pretty severe Eastern winters, except 2019-20.