2026-2027 Super El Nino

[GaWx]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

I’m educatedly guessing that the weekly relative Nino 3.4 will rise from last Monday’s +1.2 to +1.4 in today’s release. I’m guessing 1+2 will be in the +2.7 to +2.8 range. These weeklies are OISST based.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

 Nino 1+2 came in at +2.6 vs my guess of +2.7 to +2.8.

 Nino 3.4 rose only from +1.2 to +1.3 vs my guess of a rise to +1.4. The daily relative 3.4 OISST graph (see below) had suggested a rise of 0.2 rather than 0.1. Perhaps the rise was just under 0.15 and this rounded down to a rise of 0.1?

 But also, the image below of relative OISST for 3.4 suggests the relative 3.4 for last week (7/5-7/11 or the last 7 dots) was actually ~+1.5 (actually a little warmer than +1.5). So what’s going on? How come NOAA had it at only +1.3 being that they state it is OISST based? The +1.3 and this chart don’t jibe:

 

01JUL2026         2.7        1.5        1.2        0.5
 08JUL2026         2.6        1.7        1.3        0.5

[snowman19]

 Nino 1+2 came in at +2.6 vs my guess of +2.7 to +2.8.
 Nino 3.4 rose only from +1.2 to +1.3 vs my guess of a rise to +1.4. The daily relative 3.4 OISST graph (see below) had suggested a rise of 0.2 rather than 0.1. Perhaps the rise was just under 0.15 and this rounded down to a rise of 0.1?
 But also, the image below of relative OISST for 3.4 suggests the relative 3.4 for last week (7/5-7/11 or the last 7 dots) was actually ~+1.5 (actually a little warmer than +1.5). So what’s going on? How come NOAA had it at only +1.3 being that they state it is OISST based? The +1.3 and this chart don’t jibe:

 
01JUL2026         2.7        1.5        1.2        0.5
 08JUL2026         2.6        1.7        1.3        0.5

We likely see a sizable jump come with next Monday’s update based on the ongoing warming in 1+2 and 3.4. I actually expected region 4 to come in around +0.4C as the SST charts were showing a cooling there. That is definitely one difference from previous recent Ninos where we saw region 4 way above average with consistent warming each week. Anyway, the models are already keying in on yet another WWB

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

Thanks, Adam.

It appears that Zeke’s using ONI based climo comparisons. If he were to instead use RONI, it would still be the warmest on record but not by as much as the 0.8C that he refers to. So, it would be an easy record breaker even by RONI standards.

[snowman19]

Thanks, Adam.
It appears that Zeke’s using ONI based climo comparisons. If he were to instead use RONI, it would still be the warmest on record but not by as much as the 0.8C that he refers to. So, it would be an easy record breaker even by RONI standards.

Agreed.

[GaWx]

 We’re probably heading to a new warmest OHC of this Nino per this (often the far right portion of these graphs is later revised due to interpolation…so it isn’t certain yet):

[LakePaste25]

The big question is, does the +ENSO signal become so strong by winter that its forcing overwhelms it in the seasonal mean? Do we start to see the -PDO finally reverse? 

 

[frontranger8]

5 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

 

The northern tier trough signal was more apparent looking at the past 30 days. Focused in the middle of the country. 

[MJO812]

https://hudsonvalleypost.com/new-york-could-see-strongest-winter-in-a-decade/?tsq=sl&fbclid=IwdGRjcATCHlFjbGNrBMIePmV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHjp6J1TGE9ocHNhW8ZxgHKT91qC7PujWKSAcNuIu8S94zzo0OpS9RyHnJfyZ_aem_HlxhPu2lZX-qOcRhk70wDw

[GaWx]

Don’t  the messenger:  I’d like to see, if possible, and if it doesn’t take forever to find out if this JFM really is the coldest ever forecasted going back to 2012. Is it worth my valuable time? Probably not. What do y’all think about this map, which is a mean of a whopping 10 days of runs of its ensemble as opposed to just one run?

Precip anoms from same run:

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

Don’t  the messenger:  I’d like to see, if possible, and if it doesn’t take forever to find out if this JFM really is the coldest ever forecasted going back to 2012. Is it worth my valuable time? Probably not. What do y’all think about this map, which is a mean of a whopping 10 days of runs of its ensemble as opposed to just one run?

Precip anoms from same run:

Knock yourself out! Lol

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/

[PhiEaglesfan712]

15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

https://hudsonvalleypost.com/new-york-could-see-strongest-winter-in-a-decade/?tsq=sl&fbclid=IwdGRjcATCHlFjbGNrBMIePmV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHjp6J1TGE9ocHNhW8ZxgHKT91qC7PujWKSAcNuIu8S94zzo0OpS9RyHnJfyZ_aem_HlxhPu2lZX-qOcRhk70wDw

 

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

Don’t  the messenger:  I’d like to see, if possible, and if it doesn’t take forever to find out if this JFM really is the coldest ever forecasted going back to 2012. Is it worth my valuable time? Probably not. What do y’all think about this map, which is a mean of a whopping 10 days of runs of its ensemble as opposed to just one run?

Precip anoms from same run:

As I said, I'm going to wait until the fall before taking this seriously. If the strong winter signal is still there in September/October, then you know it's going to be a cold and snowy winter. 2009-10 was the last time a strong winter signal held in the fall during a developing strong el nino. Contrast that to 2015-16 and 2023-24, when there was no strong winter signal in the fall months.

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

The big question is, does the +ENSO signal become so strong by winter that its forcing overwhelms it in the seasonal mean? Do we start to see the -PDO finally reverse? 

 

In the old days with super El Niños, the strong low level westerlies would extend north from the tropics into the mid-latitudes like in 1997.

During the 2020s, the subtropical or mid-latitude ridges have grown to record levels. So the westerly flow is much weaker with the high pressure dominating.

The warm pool from Japan to north of Hawaii is allowed to continue leading to the persistent -PDO. This prevents the strong +PDO response that was typical in 1997 and 2015.

This is also why we have see strong to record heat domes across the CONUS since May from time to time instead of the cooler typical El Niño pattern this time of year. 

 

 

[LakePaste25]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

In the old days with super El Niños, the strong low level westerlies would extend north from the tropics into the mid-latitudes like in 1997.

During the 2020s, the subtropical or mid-latitude ridges have grown to record levels. So the westerly flow is much weaker with the high pressure dominating.

The warm pool from Japan to north of Hawaii is allowed to continue leading to the persistent -PDO. This prevents the strong +PDO response that was typical in 1997 and 2015.

This is also why we have see strong to record heat domes across the CONUS since May from time to time instead of the cooler typical El Niño pattern this time of year. 

 

 

Definitely a lack of +U out there in the N pac. Wonder if this changes in the Fall. 

 

[LakePaste25]