2026-2027 Super El Nino

[LakePaste25]

Here’s the SH the pac jet extension and +U

 

 

[raindancewx]

Which is more likely? ONI at 3.5, or 3.5 pages without mention of snow in the Northeast. I know what I'd bet on.

July 2015 was actually very much dead on the long-term temp correlation for Nino 1.2, 3, 3.4, 4, etc. This year has been less so month to date.

The pattern right now for July looks a lot like the 2023-24 winter - very warm NE 1/4 of the US, a bit cool or near average West & South. But July 2023 itself was cold North Central.

The Modoki El Ninos that are cold in the East in winter tend to be cold in July in the East: 2004, 2009, 2014 were all cold in the East or Northeast for both.

Best indication that everything is "clicking" correctly for US El Nino impacts is the long-term precipitation tendency. We're not there yet. Amarillo-Boise zone is not behaving yet. Northeast and Florida should be much better too. 

 

The map (even accounting for Tropical Tidbits adjusting for global SSTs by global mean above average) for oceans looks very different to July 2023.

[raindancewx]

You can see on the maps four major differences to now if it isn't clear:

1) In 2023, you had hot water east of Mexico, cold water west of Mexico. That implied high pressure off the West Coast, and low pressure of the east coast. Absolute worst possible case for monsoon development. Followed the hottest June on record in Mexico, and coincided with the hottest July (and month) ever locally. in 2026, the warm water west of Mexico implies low pressure and the colder Gulf implies high pressure - nearly ideal pattern for moisture. Monsoon has been quite strong in Mexico since May and should pick up locally here too in the next week.

2) NE/SE Atlantic are night and day different - much colder now than 2023.

3) Coldest waters are relatively in the Atlantic now. Not the Pacific.

4) The SE Pacific (SW of South America) is much warmer, consistent maybe with steady weakening of the -PDO, just as the -PDO seems to be weakening somewhat in the NE Pacific. Still present though for both spots.

[so_whats_happening]

Im not going to play catch up since I have last been on here but here is TAO from May through July 4th, I'll be taking out May next update around mid month.

 

[so_whats_happening]

The difference in overall depth of the warm anomalies looks to be an artifact of the -PDO still being around. During the 2023-24 Nino this was centered around 130-140W. We also are lacking a significant negative anomaly region developing near the Dateline. I gotta ask the question though are we seeing Nino take on a new form with SSTs the way they are globally?

[GaWx]

 The strong left-sidedness of the MJO continues:

[GaWx]

Per The Long Paddock website, which hasn’t shown a new SOI daily since July 2nd:

 June/July SOI values have been subject to an incorrect data feed. The values will return after the data source has been replaced and values are recalculated.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[snowman19]

11 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

[mention=13098]snowman19[/mention]
 

100%. The 30C isotherm is already east of the dateline and the EURO seasonal started showing this happening last month, projecting that the 30C isotherm will push all the way to 120W by November, which would be an all time record. I absolutely believe it given the huge WWBs we’ve been seeing since April. This year, unlike 2015, we have a complete trade wind reversal with WWBs/westerlies and DWKWs pushing well east of the dateline with no resistance….that is going to keep pushing the 30C warm pool east. We didn’t see that in 2015, in fact, we actually saw EWBs and the trade winds fighting back even up to this point in time…this year, not even close. The surface from region 3.4 to region 3, to region 1+2 is warmer and the subsurface is warmer than 2015 with more substantial WWBs and DWKWs. Region 4 is actually cooling now, also unlike 2015. The TC/typhoon parade projected to begin this month in the WPAC and the EPAC and the MJO progression is only going to reinforce it (WWBs, DWKWs)


 

 

 

 

Wow:


 

 

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

 

 

[bluewave]

The PDO continues to operate independently of El Nino. The more Niña-like pattern which resulted in record heat in the East caused the PDO to fall and the AMO to rise. This is a result of the strong mid-latitude ridges warming the ocean surface below.

The Atlantic City, NJ with the airport on the edge of the Pine Barrens just tied its all-time highest temperature. Most other years above 100° were La Ninas like 2011 or weaker El Niños or more neutral years. 
 

 

 

Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature 
for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1943-08-01 to 2026-07-06
1	106.0	2026-07-04 through 2026-07-04
-	106.0	1969-06-28 through 1969-06-28
2	105.0	2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03
-	105.0	2011-07-23 through 2011-07-23
-	105.0	2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22
3	104.0	1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03
4	103.0	2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02
-	103.0	2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09
5	102.0	2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25
-	102.0	2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24
-	102.0	2011-06-09 through 2011-06-09
-	102.0	2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06
-	102.0	1966-07-04 through 1966-07-04
-	102.0	1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26
6	101.0	2012-07-18 through 2012-07-18
-	101.0	2007-08-08 through 2007-08-08
-	101.0	1993-07-10 through 1993-07-10
7	100.0	2019-07-21 through 2019-07-21
-	100.0	2012-07-07 through 2012-07-07
-	100.0	2011-07-24 through 2011-07-24

 

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

@snowman19

 

 

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The strong left-sidedness of the MJO continues:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The stagnation of the MJO on the lefthand side makes sense

[LakePaste25]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The stagnation of the MJO on the lefthand side makes sense

As opposed to 2015, where it was either in the COD or 4-5-6

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

As opposed to 2015, where it was either in the COD or 4-5-6

 

I get what @snowman19is saying....good shot it keeps going east, but I would prefer that as opposed to having it remain in the MC. Forcing probably won't remain in the Modoki zone, but give me east-based forcing over the MC-hybrid crap. At least with the former there should be some windows and it will be active.

[LakePaste25]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get what @snowman19is saying....good shot it keeps going east, but I would prefer that as opposed to having it remain in the MC. Forcing probably won't remain in the Modoki zone, but give me east-based forcing over the MC-hybrid crap. At least with the former there should be some windows and it will be active.

Yeah plus I think it’s likely to give us a better decade. Warm pool will recover somewhat after this year for sure, but we’re also removing a lot of ocean heat content this way, and it won’t be such an extreme gradient.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Yeah plus I think it’s likely to give us a better decade. Warm pool will recover somewhat after this year for sure, but we’re also removing a lot of ocean heat content this way, and it won’t be such an extreme gradient.

I would bet my life that the 2030's are better for east coast winter enthusiasts than the 2020's....how much better is the focus of debate.

[forkyfork]

of course you think that

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

of course you think that

Just like I thought this decade would be worse than the 2010's...and winter 1996-1997 would be worse than 1995-1996. It's not rocket science. 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

of course you think that

We know you think this will be the warmest winter on record. 

[forkyfork]

i'm sure the +2c climate base state after this nino will be great for snow

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

100%. The 30C isotherm is already east of the dateline and the EURO seasonal started showing this happening last month, projecting that the 30C isotherm will push all the way to 120W by November, which would be an all time record. I absolutely believe it given the huge WWBs we’ve been seeing since April. This year, unlike 2015, we have a complete trade wind reversal with WWBs/westerlies and DWKWs pushing well east of the dateline with no resistance….that is going to keep pushing the 30C warm pool east. We didn’t see that in 2015, in fact, we actually saw EWBs and the trade winds fighting back even up to this point in time…this year, not even close. The surface from region 3.4 to region 3, to region 1+2 is warmer and the subsurface is warmer than 2015 with more substantial WWBs and DWKWs. Region 4 is actually cooling now, also unlike 2015. The TC/typhoon parade projected to begin this month in the WPAC and the EPAC and the MJO progression is only going to reinforce it (WWBs, DWKWs)

I would bet it ends up around 140W.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i'm sure the +2c climate base state after this nino will be great for snow

Any seasonal meteorologist worth a damn would understand that there are multidecadal trends and oscillations at play that are independent of the background warming.....they have all been about as hostile as it gets for east coast winter enthusiasts throughout the 2020s. If you feel the planet is going to warm enough to negate the more favorable shift of the multidecadal hemispheric trends and increased moisture availability, then I would be more than willing to wager against you.

[forkyfork]

blah blah blah

[forkyfork]

snow, all the time

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

blah blah blah

Epitomizes your online contributions over the course of the past two decades....what a waste of a degree. Plenty of highly esteemed contributors like @bluewaveand @raindancewx are pretty painfully objective with regard to east coast winter prospects...it's not about that. You just don't offer much of value not because you aren't capable, but you allocate all of your time and energy towards mindless trolling.

[forkyfork]

the pac warm pool won't reload after this nino and we'll get dateline forcing forever

[40/70 Benchmark]

If we have another decade like this during the 2020s, then yes....I will assume we have reached a tipping point at which the back ground warming has rendered the pattern irrelevant for east coast snowfall prospects, but I am just not there yet. I think that's a pretty fair stance.