2026-2027 Super El Nino

[GaWx]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the other overlapping marine heatwaves are adding warmer La Niña-like influences to the mix. Especially when the forcing extends closer to the Maritime Continent which pumps the Southeast ridge. 

This is why the pattern has been so much warmer in the East this spring into June than we have typically have seen during past developing super El Niños.

But the next 10 days look more Nino-like with a trough centered near the Great Lakes and less warmth in the East.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=24&which=cd&csector=conus&var=high&w=rank&p=day&year=2026&month=5&sdate=2026%2F06%2F01&edate=2026%2F06%2F19&cmap=RdYlBu&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

2026 warmed to +1.2 relative OISST on June 17th, which is 0.1 warmer than the warmest week on record (back to 1982) centered nearest to June 17th, 1997’s +1.1:
 
2026: +1.2

1997: +1.1

1987: +1.0

2015: +0.9

1982: +0.8

1994: +0.7

1991: +0.6

2002: +0.5

2009: +0.4

2023: +0.4

 

Data source:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

[40/70 Benchmark]

Grain of salt....this guy is kind of a weenie IMHO.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/

 

[bluewave]

58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Grain of salt....this guy is kind of a weenie IMHO.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/

 

While the warmth in the Northeast during super El Niño winters has been a main feature for us, the snowfall has been more variable.

Would need SPV activity at least somewhat like 2015-2016 to at least make the snowfall a little more interesting than 1997-1998 and 2023-2024. But probably wouldn’t be able to forecast such a reversal until the winter is already underway.

So not many people would be willing to include it in their seasonal forecasts with the warmer risks of such an extreme El Niño event that is developing.  

Plus not sure if we could go 3 winters in a row with such strong blocks like we had in February 2025 and the 2025-2026 winter at different intervals.

2015-2016 was a reversal of the record +NAO +AO pattern in 2014-2015 +AO. So may not be able to use it as a reasonable blocking analog. Very extreme NAO and AO reversals have become the norm since 2009-2010. 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016JD025288

In January 2016, Asia and North America experienced unusual cold temperatures, although the global average of surface air temperature broke the warmest record during a strong El Niño event. This was closely related to the remarkable phase transition of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which can be explained by stratosphere-troposphere interactions. First, the quasi-biennial oscillation changed to its westerly phase in summer 2015 and the stratospheric polar vortex was stronger in early to midwinter 2015/2016. As blocking did not occur in December, the associated downward propagation signal resulted in a strongly positive AO in late December 2015. Second, after late December, the positive phase of Pacific-North America pattern became apparent in El Niño event, which strengthened the Aleutian anticyclone in the stratosphere. In addition, an equivalent barotropic (“blocking”) anticyclone was established in the troposphere over Asia. The coexistence of blocking over Asia and North America characterized the negative AO and a strong zonal wave number 2 pattern. Due to stronger zonal wave number 2 signals from the troposphere, the stronger stratospheric polar vortex was elongated, with two cyclonic centers over Asia and the North Atlantic in January. The resultant southward displacement of polar vortices was followed by rare snowfall in the subtropical region of East Asia and a heavy snowstorm on the East Coast of the United States.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the warmth in the Northeast during super El Niño winters has been a main feature for us, the snowfall has been more variable.

We would need SPV activity at least somewhat like 2015-2016 to at least make the snowfall a little more interesting than 1997-1998 and 2023-2024. But we probably wouldn’t be able to forecast such a reversal until the winter is already underway.

So not many people would be willing to include it in their seasonal forecasts with the warmer risks of such an extreme El Niño event that is developing.  

Plus not sure if we could go 3 winters in a row with such strong blocks like we had in February 2025 and the 2025-2026 winter at different intervals.

2015-2016 was a reversal of the record +NAO +AO pattern in 2014-2015 +AO. So we may not be able to use it as a reasonable blocking analog. We have been experiencing very extreme NAO and AO reversals since 2009-2010.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016JD025288

In January 2016, Asia and North America experienced unusual cold temperatures, although the global average of surface air temperature broke the warmest record during a strong El 

I nailed it in 2016, though granted I was too cold and snowy. I have no issue with a big snow risk, but the cold that Europe site was selling is BS....maybe an arctic outbreak like Feb 2016, but not in the seasonal mean.

[LakePaste25]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the warmth in the Northeast during super El Niño winters has been a main feature for us, the snowfall has been more variable.

Would need SPV activity at least somewhat like 2015-2016 to at least make the snowfall a little more interesting than 1997-1998 and 2023-2024. But probably wouldn’t be able to forecast such a reversal until the winter is already underway.

So not many people would be willing to include it in their seasonal forecasts with the warmer risks of such an extreme El Niño event that is developing.  

Plus not sure if we could go 3 winters in a row with such strong blocks like we had in February 2025 and the 2025-2026 winter at different intervals.

2015-2016 was a reversal of the record +NAO +AO pattern in 2014-2015 +AO. So may not be able to use it as a reasonable blocking analog. Very extreme NAO and AO reversals have become the norm since 2009-2010. 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016JD025288

In January 2016, Asia and North America experienced unusual cold temperatures, although the global average of surface air temperature broke the warmest record during a strong El Niño event. This was closely related to the remarkable phase transition of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which can be explained by stratosphere-troposphere interactions. First, the quasi-biennial oscillation changed to its westerly phase in summer 2015 and the stratospheric polar vortex was stronger in early to midwinter 2015/2016. As blocking did not occur in December, the associated downward propagation signal resulted in a strongly positive AO in late December 2015. Second, after late December, the positive phase of Pacific-North America pattern became apparent in El Niño event, which strengthened the Aleutian anticyclone in the stratosphere. In addition, an equivalent barotropic (“blocking”) anticyclone was established in the troposphere over Asia. The coexistence of blocking over Asia and North America characterized the negative AO and a strong zonal wave number 2 pattern. Due to stronger zonal wave number 2 signals from the troposphere, the stronger stratospheric polar vortex was elongated, with two cyclonic centers over Asia and the North Atlantic in January. The resultant southward displacement of polar vortices was followed by rare snowfall in the subtropical region of East Asia and a heavy snowstorm on the East Coast of the United States.

 

 

PV aside, if we can shift that warm pool east it’ll allow for some brief periods of -EPO/+TNH during jet retractions. We missed out on that during ‘23-‘24 because W pac forcing instantly reverted us to the canonical Aleutian ridge La Niña pattern whenever the jet retracted. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

PV aside, if we can shift that warm pool east it’ll allow for some brief periods of -EPO/+TNH during jet retractions. We missed out on that during ‘23-‘24 because W pac forcing instantly reverted us to the canonical Aleutian ridge La Niña pattern whenever the jet retracted. 

Yes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

No way in hell this is going to be a cold winter in the mean for the NE...even 1957 and 1965 were near normal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I feel like we are going to be playing with fire a lot between periods of Modoki forcing and MC forcing....probably a good deal of variability after a consistently mild early season.

[snowman19]

Out of the last 3 super El Niños (82-83, 97-98, 15-16), with the exception of the obvious +PDO back then, this current El Niño structure, intensity, along with the ++PMM, most closely resembles 1997 at this point in time

[Stormchaserchuck1]

+8C! How healthy does this look (also notice there's no major cold water building in the west)?

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

+8C! How healthy does this look (also notice there's no major cold water building in the west)?

+8C is insanity. The closest match: 1997

[Stormchaserchuck1]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

+8C is insanity. The closest match: 1997

Best I could do is 20c isotherm depth, but here's most recent day vs that day in 1997

Depth average temp

Edit: I found 1997's full subsurface profile

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No way in hell this is going to be a cold winter in the mean for the NE...even 1957 and 1965 were near normal.

65-66 would have been well above normal if it wasn't for strong -NAO. Not saying we can't have -NAO this Winter, it's more random vs ENSO

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

65-66 would have been well above normal if it wasn't for strong -NAO. Not saying we can't have -NAO this Winter, it's more random vs ENSO

Was 09-10 a strong -NAO?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Was 09-10 a strong -NAO?

Strongest on record, since the mid 1800s. 

[snowman19]

The EURO is getting more aggressive with the +IOD, now showing a strong positive event come September

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Strongest on record, since the mid 1800s. 

I guess for those who want a cooler and snowy winter, root on for a -NAO to be the fly in the ointment for the robust el nino.

[GaWx]

42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 Keep in mind that these tend to run too high when forecasting extremes out several weeks:

 

Note it’s now <0.5. Compare that to this 6/3 forecast, which had it at +2 for today!

[GaWx]

Further to my post above, the 0Z 5/25 fcast had a mean +3+ for now vs actual <+0.5! These like to overshoot severely:

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The EURO is getting more aggressive with the +IOD, now showing a strong positive event come September

Euro progging peak of impressive +1.4 Oct, which would beat 11/1997 record of +1.3! However, avg IOD has been rising with CC and thus in theory would need to be adjusted down to be comparable and would be < the +1.3 of ‘97. Otherwise, even the adjusted IOD prog could very well be 2nd strongest on record!

IOD data back to 1870, which shows the ‘97 record and longterm rise:

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

[BlizzardWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Euro progging peak of impressive +1.4 Oct, which would beat 11/1997 record of +1.3! However, avg IOD has been rising with CC and thus in theory would need to be adjusted down to be comparable and would be < the +1.3 of ‘97. Otherwise, even the adjusted IOD prog could very well be 2nd strongest on record!

IOD data back to 1870, which shows the ‘97 record and longterm rise:

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

And it's worth noting it's not just really warm vs less warm. ECMWF seasonal shows genuine cool anomalies near the MC as part of that +IOD  along with the eastward leaning nino. I think if this roughly happens it really would kill the split forcing Bluewave is always talking about. Even further north the ECMWF seasonal is mostly breaking down the warm water in the west Pacific with what is a neutral to maybe slight +PDO look. This would be a genuine change from the last decade. And that's to say nothing of what still looks to be a marginally negative AMO. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

And it's worth noting it's not just really warm vs less warm. ECMWF seasonal shows genuine cool anomalies near the MC as part of that +IOD  along with the eastward leaning nino. I think if this roughly happens it really would kill the split forcing Bluewave is always talking about. Even further north the ECMWF seasonal is mostly breaking down the warm water in the west Pacific with what is a neutral to maybe slight +PDO look. This would be a genuine change from the last decade. And that's to say nothing of what still looks to be a marginally negative AMO. 

Yea, that's more of a traditional, canonical-intense El Niño response, more in line with 1997. NAO will be crucial to salvaging a winter. Probably cooler than 2023 in the NE in the absence of that competing MC element.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Nice write up. Been saying it, but in addition to the east-based super Nino, +IOD, maybe slightly +PDO and -AMO, the Copernicus suite is showing the 30C isotherm getting pushed all the way to 140W, which would be the first time it history, the previous record being 155W. If that actually happens, it would effectively end the “split forcing” that we saw in 2015-16 and 2023-34. IMO, given these basically non stop major WWBs and DWKWs since April, which look to continue, that entire equatorial WPAC/Indo warm pool gets sloshed/shunted east (finally)

I would welcome this, regardless of how we fare this coming winter.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I guess for those who want a cooler and snowy winter, root on for a -NAO to be the fly in the ointment for the robust el nino.

Even a -NAO -AO during a super El Niño can be warm with very little snow like we saw in January 1998. The issue was how strong the El Niño ridge was in the Great Lakes into the Northeast to the south of the block over Greenland. Also note that the forcing to the east of the Dateline didn’t help since it was so strong. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Even a -NAO -AO during a super El Niño can be warm with very little snow like we saw in January 1998. The issue is how strong the El Niño ridge was in the Great Lakes into the Northeast to the south of the main block over Greenland. Also note that the forcing moving to the east of the Dateline didn’t help since it was so strong. 

 

Never any guarantees with an El Niño that powerful, but we can all agree that we'll need some negative NAO to have an appreciable shot.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1957-1958 also had quite a bit of -NAO.....but Chris is correct to question how effective it would be today because even if the west warm pool relents, we still need to account for the exaggerated ridge and attenuated trough responses in our modern climate.

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

And it's worth noting it's not just really warm vs less warm. ECMWF seasonal shows genuine cool anomalies near the MC as part of that +IOD  along with the eastward leaning nino. I think if this roughly happens it really would kill the split forcing Bluewave is always talking about. Even further north the ECMWF seasonal is mostly breaking down the warm water in the west Pacific with what is a neutral to maybe slight +PDO look. This would be a genuine change from the last decade. And that's to say nothing of what still looks to be a marginally negative AMO. 

The December forecast map shows the +IOD becoming more neutral following the fall peak with the SSTs rebounding a bit near the Maritime Continent

So we’ll have to see how things verify once we get that far out in time. 

Also note the December forecast chart has warmer SSTs east of Japan and over the Atlantic. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

All the January, 1998 -NAO/-AO did was trap Pacific air underneath the blocks

WPO....it's usually + in these uber warm ENSO events, but 1982-1983 was negative....I could see us pulling that off again given the recent changes on the North Pacific. May be another notable difference between this year and 2023-2024.

[40/70 Benchmark]

They still haven't calculated the QBO since February. What an absolute nightmare this administration is.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here's an interesting stat: 13 straight February's with +NAO (CPC). 10/13 have been >+1.00. For comparison, our last Winter month (DJFM) with any monthly NAO <-1.11 was Dec 2010.