2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[GaWx]

The most solid Nino support from AAM yet if this CFS prog is to be believed:

 

[snowman19]

The South American weather service just declared that an “El Nino Costero” (coastal) has developed…..
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The South American weather service just declared that an “El Nino Costero” (coastal) has developed…..
 

I think I'm fluent in 12 different languages as a result of following your ENSO updates.

[rclab]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The South American weather service just declared that an “El Nino Costero” (coastal) has developed…..
 

 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think I'm fluent in 12 different languages as a result of following your ENSO updates.

S 19, it’s a bit of refreshing humor and a compliment. Perhaps just a bit left handed but a compliment just the same. Your post attachments give me the impression that you must be multi lingual. Im sincere, if you think not, I’ll accept your ‘pito’ Stay well, as always ….

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, rclab said:

 

S 19, it’s a bit of refreshing humor and a compliment. Perhaps just a bit left handed but a compliment just the sane. Your post attachments give me the impression that you must be multi lingual. Im sincere, if you think not, I’ll accept your ‘pito’ Stay well, as always ….

Yea, just having some fun. I appreciative his insight and refreshers in espanol.

[michsnowfreak]

17 hours ago, GaWx said:

1957-8, 1972-3, and 1982-3 had the most wintry precipitation of the super Ninos in the SE US. Also, 1957-8 was cold vs the NN of 72-3 and 82-3. 65-6 was also cold.

 

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it's the only decent one out here.

To clarify...I meant 1982-83 was the absolute shittiest winter of the bunch here. I grew up with my winter-hating dad saying he remembers how "great" that winter was. My mom (who loves winter) was pregnant with me and said she remembers feeling sick at Christmas Eve midnight mass because it was warm in her coat. It was pretty much on its way to being the least snowy winter on record, with only 9" falling thru March 19, but then two spring snowstorms (Mar 21 & Apr 17) added 11" so the winter finished at 20". No winter since has seen that little snowfall. Also, it still stands as the least snowy astrononomical winter on record with only 5.8" falling Dec 21-Mar 19.

1957-58 and 1965-66 at least had some cold, white stretches but were also absolutely atrocious snow years. In fact, both finished UNDER 20" of snowfall. I only give them the nod above 1982-83 since they had some cold & white stretches in winter. With the abysmal snowfall, as you would imagine, the snowdepth was only 2-3" during these wintry stretches

1997-98 and 2023-24 sucked overall, but were better than 1957-58, 1965-66, and 1982-83.

1972-73, 1987-88, 1991-92, 2015-16 all had some fun winter stretches and while none of them were great winters Id take any of them in a heartbeat over the others.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

To clarify...I meant 1982-83 was the absolute shittiest winter of the bunch here. I grew up with my winter-hating dad saying he remembers how "great" that winter was. My mom (who loves winter) was pregnant with me and said she remembers feeling sick at Christmas Eve midnight mass because it was warm in her coat. It was pretty much on its way to being the least snowy winter on record, with only 9" falling thru March 19, but then two spring snowstorms (Mar 21 & Apr 17) added 11" so the winter finished at 20". No winter since has seen that little snowfall. Also, it still stands as the least snowy astrononomical winter on record with only 5.8" falling Dec 21-Mar 19.

1957-58 and 1965-66 at least had some cold, white stretches but were also absolutely atrocious snow years. In fact, both finished UNDER 20" of snowfall. I only give them the nod above 1982-83 since they had some cold & white stretches in winter. With the abysmal snowfall, as you would imagine, the snowdepth was only 2-3" during these wintry stretches

1997-98 and 2023-24 sucked overall, but were better than 1957-58, 1965-66, and 1982-83.

1972-73, 1987-88, 1991-92, 2015-16 all had some fun winter stretches and while none of them were great winters Id take any of them in a heartbeat over the others.

Yea, I know what you mean. 1957 and 1965 were very good here, but they were kind of borderline strong versus super. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

57-58 and 65-66 also didn't have a strong east-based orientation. Since 1948, only 5 events: 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, and 23-24 have been basin wide Super Nino. Kind of interesting that this will be the 3rd one in 12 years, in the midst of many weaker La Nina's. 

[paulm]

We are starting to see guidance latch onto a highly anomalous ridge over Canada going into next weekend, which is a key part of the pattern we saw in May/June 2023 as well. It is plausible wildfire season could start to take off in Canada as a result.

[snowman19]

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I know what you mean. 1957 and 1965 were very good here, but they were kind of borderline strong versus super. 

Yikes its pretty much the best ones here are the worst ones there and vice versa.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, paulm said:

We are starting to see guidance latch onto a highly anomalous ridge over Canada going into next weekend, which is a key part of the pattern we saw in May/June 2023 as well. It is plausible wildfire season could start to take off in Canada as a result.

@bluewaveIs that you?

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yikes its pretty much the best ones here are the worst ones there and vice versa.

Yea, precipitation is the problem from your area into NNE....temps pretty near equally as correlated to snowfall here...close. Slight hedged towards precip from my area near the NH border and on up.

[snowman19]

Even the new RONI projections are up to +3C now:
 
 

^ “Getting this sort of MJO-driven reinforcement of the developing #ElNiño with a massive westerly wind burst is a pretty good indicator that this event is going to be a very strong one. No sustained easterlies to interrupt the last Kelvin Wave, and this next WWB should push the warm pool even further east. Probably why even the *relative* SST anomalies are pushing 3-3.5C in some of the latest forecasts.”

Check out this animated thermocline progression over the last month…..just wow:

 

 

[mitchnick]

@Stormchaserchuck1

How's the May NAO index off Newoundland looking so far if you don't mind me asking? 

[snowman19]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

25 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

@Stormchaserchuck1

How's the May NAO index off Newoundland looking so far if you don't mind me asking? 

The CDC Daily climate composites page hasn't been working so I can't do exact measurements on the data is was based on, but the SSTA on Tropical Tidbits looks about Neutral so far, close to 0.0. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'd be careful going extreme on RONI Super Nino snowman19, we are little behind at this time of the year. Only 1991 had a May RONI of +0.5 and become Super but that was the lowest, the average per Super event later in the year was +0.8/yr in May. I think we are around 0.4-0.5, which is last place I think. 

[snowman19]

24 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'd be careful going extreme on RONI Super Nino snowman19, we are little behind at this time of the year. Only 1991 had a May RONI of +0.5 and become Super but that was the lowest, the average per Super event later in the year was +0.8/yr in May. I think we are around 0.4-0.5, which is last place I think. 

We are +0.58 on today’s RONI (OISST)

 

The CRW RONI is slightly warmer at +0.65C

[LakePaste25]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We are +0.58 on today’s RONI (OISST)

 

The CRW RONI is slightly warmer at +0.65C

Plenty of gas in the tank out in the west pac and Nino 4 regions to go higher too. 

 

[snowman19]

13 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Plenty of gas in the tank out in the west pac and Nino 4 regions to go higher too. 

 

IMO this Nino goes nuclear after this upcoming major WWB/ERW and subsequent (new) DWKW. It think that entire WPAC/Indo warm pool gets sloshed east by the end of this event

@roardog Yes on the +PDO

[roardog]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO this Nino goes nuclear after this upcoming major WWB/ERW and subsequent (new) DWKW. It think that entire WPAC/Indo warm pool gets sloshed east by the end of this event

Do you think we will flip to a +PDO this year?

[raindancewx]

No PDO flip this year. If you call 1957/1958 spiking positive in the -PDO cycle prior as the same point as 2014/2015, we're around 1968 now. We're within a decade, as it's not exact, but I'd bet the PDO doesn't average positive for Nov-Apr. We're probably in something like 1965-66 El Nino strength at 1968 timing cyclically, which was a big El Nino about a decade from the +PDO flip. I'd expect continuing regression toward 0 and a month or two may poke above it, but Nov-Apr won't be over 0.

AMO on the other hand...might be this year. Atlantic in May is night and day different to 2023.

The colder water by NZ v. 2023 also bodes well for more typical El Nino conditions in the West. Cold/Colder AMO is a decent wet signal and cold signal in winter for a lot of the US.

 

[LakePaste25]

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

 

Yep. El Nino standing wave. This upcoming WWB and follow up DWKW is going to be monstrous. And in other news, the models are getting more aggressive with a strong +IOD forming by this fall

 

Wow, look at the WWB animation…

 

 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

18 hours ago, raindancewx said:

 

Decadal research through the 1900s shows that the AMO is correlated to SE ridge/trough patterns.

-AMO ibb.co/bR3LvKW

+AMO ibb.co/KctZCPm

-AMO ibb.co/wKX4YCC

+AMO ibb.co/sFSwm0j

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Pretty interesting what continues to transpire in the North Pacific, despite El Nino

I don't think we'll be getting a follow up-Strong La Nina anytime soon (years), there is an ebb and flow to the Pacific-ENSO pattern. 

[roardog]

31 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Pretty interesting what continues to transpire in the North Pacific, despite El Nino

I don't think we'll be getting a follow up-Strong La Nina anytime soon (years), there is an ebb and flow to the Pacific-ENSO pattern. 

Despite the twitter chatter about the atmosphere/ enso coupling, it sure doesn’t look like it in North America in early June if ensembles are correct. I wouldn’t be surprised if the MEI is still not very Nino. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, roardog said:

Despite the twitter chatter about the atmosphere/ enso coupling, it sure doesn’t look like it in North America in early June if ensembles are correct. I wouldn’t be surprised if the MEI is still not very Nino. 

They are just expressing what they think should happen. We continue to be in this mid latitude Hadley Cell expansion phase, despite El Nino.