2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Should be a brief cooldown as the AO dips but the PV is going to strengthen.  Going to be a warm November and December.

I hate strong El Ninos and strong La Ninas.

Our last strong la nina (2010-11) had a great snow season, though.

[stadiumwave]

https://x.com/Statisticizer/status/2117490059796484274?a=37IteOi_Ly62Baqdd2I&s=19

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

https://x.com/Statisticizer/status/2117490059796484274?a=37IteOi_Ly62Baqdd2I&s=19

Yea, 1807 was up there on my list.

Good stuff, though...he reminds me a bit of Jim Hughes with the space weather focus.

[forkyfork]

 

[michsnowfreak]

12 hours ago, Newman said:

1982-83 was a rough winter for the Dakotas regarding seasonal snowfall totals:

Grand Forks ND: 16.9" of snow (31.5" below normal)

Aberdeen SD: 18.9" of snow (23.8" below normal)

Fargo ND: 23.2" of snow (28.2" below normal)

Rapid City SD: 24.9" of snow (23.5" below normal)

Bismarck ND: 32.2" of snow (18.3" below normal)

International Falls MN: 46" of snow (26.9" below normal)

 

However, some other places across the upper Midwest ended up near normal to even well above normal like Duluth, Minneapolis, Marquette, other portions of Wisconsin and UP Michigan. So it's important to remember that, even on these maps showing a blazing red torch across the upper Midwest, it's all relative to normal and it can still snow there.

It always snows in the upper midwest and Lakes. The bigger issue in strong ninos for northern areas is ice thickness, snow retention, and potential abnormally dry weather patterns. Winter recreation is big in northern states, and warm nino winters put a damper on the norm....but it certainly snows.

[GaWx]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Any cooler conditions in the Southeast will mostly be a function of all the clouds and rain keeping the high temperatures down. The eastward displaced Pacific vortex and the frequent jet extensions will flood North America with mild Pacific air. Those climatology packages beyond 15 days are defaulting to general El Niño climatology. This event is much more extreme than general El Niño climatology. 

1. A lot of it in the South is, indeed, from clouds limiting the high temps and rain leading to evaporative cooling. But there’s also dynamically induced cooling during storms due to the strong ST jet. I realize it isn’t modeling a “cold pattern” with Arctic air dominating, which I never said.

2. CWG referred to an EW H5 map at day 45 and in a blanket fashion said this was a “very warm” pattern. That same model’s 2m maps for weeks 4-6 are literally disagreeing with CWG’s “very warm” pattern. That’s what first got me to post about this. Most (S 2/3) of the U.S. is NN to BN on that model run!

3. Despite the typical climo of very strong El Niño, nothing is anywhere close to being certain especially for shorter periods within the winter. Even during very strong El Niños, there have been intervals of Arctic cold dominating though Jan/Feb have had them more frequently than Dec. For example at NYC:

-1/18-24/2016

-2/11-15/2016

-1/15-20/1992

-2/9-13/1992

-12/9-14/1982

-1/16-22/1983

-2/5-13/1983

-1/6-13/1973

-2/9-18/1973

-1/25-2/7/1966

-12/12-23/1888

-2/1889 very cold

-1/1-9/1878

-1/28-2/5/1878

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

[michsnowfreak]

54 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 They may or they may not. That remains to be seen. There is no certainty about this. Yes, Nov 1-22 (weeks 1-3) is coming in warmer than was being shown earlier. But that doesn’t mean that weeks 4-6 (Nov 23-Dec 13) will definitely do the same.

 I’ll add that should the current SSW actually lead to colder, that wouldn’t per @Stormchaserchuck1be expected to happen for 30-35+ days afterward, which isn’t even til early to mid Dec (weeks 5-6 on the EW). OTOH, it often is warm in the E US near and for a couple of weeks after SSWs.

 This is a forecasting discussion, not a crystal ball discussion.

The Euro weeklies were absolutely bullied in this forum last winter for their expected inaccuracy past week 2 (they showed cold), but i have a feeling we will be seeing the same ones posting weeks 5 and 6 often this winter.

[chris21]

I would describe that is a shitty pattern that while not prohibitively warm, per se, isn't good enough for the coast...especially early in the season.

My average temp in December is 31-32 degrees. If I’m 1-2 degrees below average with that much precip, I’m going to be in business. Dec 97 redux


.

[michsnowfreak]

46 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Our last strong la nina (2010-11) had a great snow season, though.

Textbook year of what you want in a Nina winter here. Well above avg snowfall, well above avg snowcover/snow depth, and well below avg temps.