2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Typhoon Tip]

15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

95 faded west...it was more east-based, pretty much evenly distributed at peak.

Fwiprobablynotworth ...  this ACME road-runner show quality graphic over at CPC seems to suggest there's a secondary +anomaly node ( if not primary...) situated around the 3.4 ... interestingly trying to connect to the marine heat wave going on around San Diego ...  

The nearby coastal cooling astride El Salvador - I suspect - is an artifact of the enhanced TC trafficking over the last 1.5 months running up just W of that area and imposing offshore SS stressing ..speculation.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiprobablynotworth ...  this ACME road-runner show quality graphic over at CPC seems to suggest there's a secondary +anomaly node ( if not primary...) situated around the 3.4 ... interestingly trying to connect to the marine heat wave going on around San Diego ...  

The nearby coastal cooling astride El Salvador - I suspect - is an artifact of the enhanced TC trafficking over the last 1.5 months running up just W of that area and imposing offshore SS stressing ..speculation.  

Yes, that is the dual forcing I have been alluding to...it's from about 130-150 degrees longitude....I think early on, the eastern node will dominate, then we will see more variability beginning beyond the ides of January, as that western node starts to constructively interfere with some other aspects at higher latitudes in addition to ENSO perhaps leaking westward a bit overall/weakening at that juncture.

[bluewave]

That’s a near record STJ off the Baja being forecast which will help to amplify the ridge over the Great Lakes and Northeast moving into early November. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

No, it's not going to turn into a Modoki...I agree that that is laughable at this point.

[soadforecasterx]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, it's not going to turn into a Modoki...I agree that that is laughable at this point.

Would basin wide still be on the table?

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

Would basin wide still be on the table?

In the seasonal mean? No....I don't think so. I mean, technically speaking, it's basin-wide now, but I would certainly consider it heavily eastern biased...it will probably grow somewhat more evenly distributed around mid season before perhaps collapsing back eastward early next spring.

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s a near record STJ off the Baja being forecast which will help to amplify the ridge over the Great Lakes and Northeast moving into early November. 
 

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One aspect I've been coveting that has me deeply concerned for the state of public mental health/America Forum winter zealotry ( eh hm), is a notion that I haven't heard any one or source mention. 

Speculatively:   the STJ may end up N of the climatological normal latitudes - as a mean ...

For the general reader ... try to be nuanced aware and open idiosyncratic minded about how nature actually works for a minute here. We're talking about integrating behaviors, an integral that will end up containing examples both subtle and gross.

It may not be overly obvious at all times...  Sometimes yes, other times no.  But in that integrated mean, could suggest a "lean" on the polar side of canonical. Events tend to go left (say).  Warm penetration events a bit more robust than mid range model means - I suspect AI sources, which don't bear any compunctions ( haha ) would be unabashed. Something like that is already tantalizingly suggestive in the current Euro-AI version matter of fact... 

As an aside, something I'm noticing about AI so far in it's techno-infancy ... it seems to be on the amplified lean of all possibilities when looking at specifics.

If whatever aspect is driving the -PDO continues, I still personally believe that needs to persist. That "tension" may be our best hope for that population of d-drippers, lest the manic state drives them to voting self-destructively for the wrong people.  haha.  No but  (CC base +historic positive ENSO)/2) doesn't otherwise intuitively feel hopeful if operating on the hemisphere alone.

 

[LakePaste25]

incredibly early in the season to be seeing this pattern. 

 

[forkyfork]

but the stratosphere! 

[GaWx]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s a near record STJ off the Baja being forecast which will help to amplify the ridge over the Great Lakes and Northeast moving into early November. 
 

 

 With this record breaking and possibly even record shattering weak early Nov SPV very likely, what do you and others think that leads us to for Dec? Previously I was thinking based on @snowman19+QBO/Nino analogs that Dec overall would likely be mild in the E US outside of possibly NN in the SE. But, I noticed that while Nov warmed considerably on the latest 10 day mean CFS (2-3F) since the runs from ~3 weeks ago, it has also cooled considerably (~2F) for Dec since just 10 days ago. I’m wondering if this is related to the 35-40 day @Stormchaserchuck1typical cooling lag for the E US after an SSW this time of year:

 

CFS 10 day mean from 10 days ago: torchy

 

Latest CFS 10 day mean for Dec: ~2F colder E US: not torchy

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

One aspect I've been coveting that has me deeply concerned for the state of public mental health/America Forum winter zealotry ( eh hm), is a notion that I haven't heard any one or source mention. 

Speculatively:   the STJ may end up N of the climatological normal latitudes - as a mean ...

For the general reader ... try to be nuanced aware and open idiosyncratic minded about how nature actually works for a minute here. We're talking about integrating behaviors, an integral that will end up containing examples both subtle and gross.

It may not be overly obvious at all times...  Sometimes yes, other times no.  But in that integrated mean, could suggest a "lean" on the polar side of canonical. Events tend to go left (say).  Warm penetration events a bit more robust than mid range model means - I suspect AI sources, which don't bear any compunctions ( haha ) would be unabashed. Something like that is already tantalizingly suggestive in the current Euro-AI version matter of fact... 

As an aside, something I'm noticing about AI so far in it's techno-infancy ... it seems to be on the amplified lean of all possibilities when looking at specifics.

If whatever aspect is driving the -PDO continues, I still personally believe that needs to persist. That "tension" may be our best hope for that population of d-drippers, lest the manic state drives them to voting self-destructively for the wrong people.  haha.  No but  (CC base +historic positive ENSO)/2) doesn't otherwise intuitively feel hopeful if operating on the hemisphere alone.

 

Chris has said that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 With this record breaking weak early Nov SPV very likely, what do you and others think that leads us to for Dec? Previously I was thinking based on @snowman19+QBO/Nino analogs that Dec overall would likely be mild in the E US outside of possibly NN in the SE. But, I noticed that while Nov warmed considerably on the latest 10 day mean CFS (2-3F) since the runs from ~3 weeks ago, it has also cooled considerably (~2F) for Dec since just 10 days ago. I’m wondering if this is related to the 35-40 day @Stormchaserchuck1typical cooling lag for the E US this time of year:

CFS 10 day mean from 10 days ago: torchy

 

Latest CFS 10 day mean for Dec: ~2F colder E US: not torchy

Not a torch, per se...but not a good look, either....really no avenue for cold to get here.