2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Oct/Nov 1972 had a warm Stratosphere

But there are only 5 Super Nino analogs since satellite data in 1948 so it's not like you can say something that usually happens 10-15% of the time not happening is statistically relevant.

It's interesting that we are diverging from the Super warm Dec - 2015

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, EasternLI said:

While I do agree that a SSW is an outside outlier chance, as I have been saying. The chance is not zero as of yet. Clearly having one NOT occur is the favored outcome. As it would be an unprecedented event for the time of year. As such that will never be favored. At the same time, seeing the powerhouse Ural block and an unprecedented El Nino, maybe it's best to keep an open mind about something unprecedented. We did have the end of November action in the strat last year, which was largely dismissed by most (myself included) at the time as not being much of a factor. However it proved itself to be an important player further down the line. So it's probably wise to just keep tabs on it for now until the path forward becomes much clearer. 

 

As of the 00z 10-25 runs, the EPS achieves wind reversals on quite a few members 42%. That's not insignificant. The GEFS, after having zero interest at all originally, has started to have some lately. Now some of you might be thinking, but it looks like a torch during that period. You would be right, that is also a part of what usually happens during these types of things too. Even if it doesn't go off, there's probably ramifications either way. Worth watching imo.

 

I actually had 1981 as an analog, so I wasn't suprised by the early warming last year...I just didn't think it would end up as a full reversal..it was close.

[stadiumwave]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Oct/Nov 1972 had a warm Stratosphere

But there are only 5 Super Nino analogs since satellite data in 1948 so it's not like you can say something that usually happens 10-15% of the time not happening is statistically relevant.

It's interesting that we are diverging from the Super warm Dec - 2015

 

72 with the strong -PDO as well. Pretty sucky winter. 

[snowman19]

I actually had 1981 as an analog, si I wasn't suprised by the eaeky warming last year...I just didn't think it would end up as a full reversal..it was close.

I am sticking by the well established trend we’ve had for the last 46+ years…..El Nino/+QBO = warm December in the northeast/midatlantic. It’s not just a strong signal, it’s an EXTREMELY strong signal. All of them ended that way without any exceptions. I see no reason to believe otherwise right now. If I’m wrong then oh well, I’ll own it

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

72 with the strong -PDO as well. Pretty sucky winter. 

-PDO for different reasons, though...which is important down the line IMO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I am sticking by the well established trend we’ve had for the last 46+ years…..El Nino/+QBO = warm December in the northeast/midatlantic. It’s not just a strong signal, it’s an EXTREMELY strong signal. All of them ended that way without any exceptions. I see no reason to believe otherwise right now. If I’m wrong then oh well, I’ll own it

Warm, yea...2015? No.

[forkyfork]

why not? we have a decade of climate change on top of the baseline

[jaxjagman]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Warm, yea...2015? No.

Dont agree with 2015.The early onset of the strong NIno happened in 2014 comprared 82-97 and for that matter this year.In the NINO that developed in 2015 the Walker circulation broke down and you didnt see these WWB but saw EWB off South America

[mitchnick]

Lowest yet I believe. Maybe @GaWx or @Stormchaserchuck1 will correct me.

Bottom map is 10mb.