2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Keith Central PA]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

someone tell me how the east coast is going to get a snowstorm with that vortex parked there all winter

Because patterns change in every winter for a time. It did in 83 and 2016 briefly and we got historic blizzards. To say it can't snow is a pretty bold statement no matter what agenda you have.

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, Keith Central PA said:

Because patterns change in every winter for a time. It did in 83 and 2016 briefly and we got historic blizzards. To say it can't snow is a pretty bold statement no matter what agenda you have.

those events were not this strong or far east. the vortex isn't going to move

[forkyfork]

how is forcing going to shift west if the entire warm pool is in the east pacific?

[Keith Central PA]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

those events were not this strong or far east. the vortex isn't going to move

So when it snows will you come back here and say you were  wrong? You predicting 0 snow for NYC I guess..ok we'll see in March if you were right. And if you are I will commend you forky!

[forkyfork]

50 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

So when it snows will you come back here and say you were  wrong? You predicting 0 snow for NYC I guess..ok we'll see in March if you were right. And if you are I will commend you forky!

you're avoiding my question

[GaWx]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been the warmest October 1st to 22nd at Atlanta by a wide margin during a super El Niño.

October 1st to 22nd Average Temperatures at Atlanta

2026….68.6°

2023….65.5°

2015….64.9°

1997….64.5°

1982….65.2°

1972…..62.1°

 Thanks, Chris. Good find!
 
 I went further and looked at all ATL Octs for +1.3+ Ninos back to the late 1800s (24 of them) and found only three that were 1.8+ warmer than normal, which is ~where the full Oct 2026 is projected. But they were all only higher end moderate:

 

1918 (+1.4 Nino): 65.8 (3.1 AN)

1941 (+1.3 Nino): 69.4 (5.9 AN)

2002 (+1.3 Nino): 65.4 (1.8 AN)

 
 The full Oct 2026 is projected to come out to ~66.1F or ~1.8 AN, which would tie with 1899 for the warmest vs normal for any Nino stronger than +1.4 peak. (I count 17 of them back to late 1800s). The warmest ATL Oct anomalies for El Niños stronger than +1.4 peak are:

 

1899 (1.8 AN)

1991 (1.6 AN)

2023 (1.4 AN)

1986 (1.2 AN)

1994 (1.1 AN)

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

They’ve been trying to go to a N Pacific low after day 10 for about a month now but it never materializes closer in time. I guess we’ll see if it finally does this time. 

They’re just delaying the inevitable. It’ll happen, whether it’s the last week of October or sometime in November. 

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

how is forcing going to shift west if the entire warm pool is in the east pacific?

shorter wavelengths can help pull the vortex west later in the season, but it’s also negated if the warm pool keeps shifting further east like it has been. Precisely why Feb 1998 didn’t get better. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

you're avoiding my question

I've answered this question, and your highly cerebral response was "I don't give a shit".

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

shorter wavelengths can help pull the vortex west later in the season, but it’s also negated if the warm pool keeps shifting further east like it has been. Precisely why Feb 1998 didn’t get better. 

Then how was it more favorable earlier in the season if the vortex was so far to the east? I had well over a foot of snow right before xmas... February had no method of cold delivery into the CONUS in 1998....I don't feel like that will be the case this during that particular potion of the season, though it will in the mean. Forcing is also stronger and more expansive not only to the east, but to the west.

I feel like people are getting too carried away with the magnitude and orientation of El Niño and are far too linear in their thought process...obviously it's going to play a huge role around the globe and will thus impact our sensible weather to a significant extent, but it's not at all the only factor....a few of you guys are acting like nothing else exists and it operates in a vacuum. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Quick question....we have established that the climate is warming, so why is it news that this was the warmest October in a super El Niño?

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Quick question....we have established that the climate is warming, so why is it news that this was the warmest October in a super El Niño?

Not speaking for anyone in particular but ... I 'sense' the posts are implicitly dancing around an ominous look/portents for winter.    

[LakePaste25]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Then how was it more favorable earlier in the season if the vortex was so far to the east? I had well over a foot of snow right before xmas... February had no method of cold delivery into the CONUS in 1998....I don't feel like that will be the case this during that particular potion of the season, though it will in the mean. Forcing is also stronger and more expansive not only to the east, but to the west.

I feel like people are getting too carried away with the magnitude and orientation of El Niño and are far too linear in their thought process...obviously it's going to play a huge role around the globe and will thus impact our sensible weather to a significant extent, but it's not at all the only factor....a few of you guys are acting like nothing else exists and it operates in a vacuum. 

December it was shifted west vs. Feb. The vortex getting backed up and tucked into Alaska was more favorable than over the GOA. Yea I know, there were other factors such as solar. But this added to it.

 

[LakePaste25]

i believe 15/16 the forcing started West in December. But we had a further west starting point (MC —> Dateline). 

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Quick question....we have established that the climate is warming, so why is it news that this was the warmest October in a super El Niño?

 Ray,

 I personally don’t think it is all that big of a deal that ATL is projected to be ~1.8 F above normal for the FULL Oct of ‘26. I didn’t mean to imply that. After all, Oct of 1991 was almost as far AN with it at 1.6F AN.
 

 Of course he was just referring to Oct 1-22, which came in ~2.2 AN vs the normal of 66.4F. But even that isn’t a strong warm anomaly.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

December it was shifted west vs. Feb. The vortex getting backed up and tucked into Alaska was more favorable than over the GOA. Yea I know, there were other factors such as solar. But this added to it.

 

Right....intraseasonal variability, which proves my point....it's always going to exist to some extent and there are folks acting as though it will not.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

i believe 15/16 the forcing started West in December. But we had a further west starting point (MC —> Dateline). 

We won't have any MC this season and the forcing still extends into the region SSE of Hawaii...which is where guidance has consistently placed the highest precip rates. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Ray,

 I personally don’t think it is all that big of a deal that ATL is projected to be ~1.8 F above normal for the FULL Oct of ‘26. I didn’t mean to imply that. After all, Oct of 1991 was almost as far AN with it at 1.6F AN.
 

 Of course he was just referring to Oct 1-22, which came in ~2.2 AN vs the normal of 66.4F. But even that isn’t a strong warm anomaly.

I wasn't signaling anyone out....general question.

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

December it was shifted west vs. Feb. The vortex getting backed up and tucked into Alaska was more favorable than over the GOA. Yea I know, there were other factors such as solar. But this added to it.

 

December was the only month that winter with a significant -NAO (-.96), hence the best month of the season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not speaking for anyone in particular but ... I 'sense' the posts are implicitly dancing around an ominous look/portents for winter.    

Oh, totally get that.....plenty of reason to think that, and we all have our stances, but it's perhaps more important to look for reasons that your forecast rationale will NOT work out.

[GaWx]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wasn't signaling anyone out....general question.

My answer:

 That’s why I prefer to compare 30 year normals rather than compare absolutes since temps are obviously warming due to GW, which is why I did that in my reply to Chris. 

 Now in terms of 30 year climo based anomalies for Oct, ‘26 is coming in a bit warmer than the avg super Nino anom. at ATL for sure. So, I agree with Chris’ general idea about that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, GaWx said:

My answer:

 That’s why I prefer to compare 30 year normals rather than compare absolutes since temps are obviously warming due to GW, which is why I did that in my reply to Chris. 

 Now in terms of 30 year climo based anomalies for Oct, ‘26 is coming in a bit warmer than the avg super Nino anom. at ATL for sure. So, I agree with Chris’ general idea about that.

Gotcha, my bad there.

 

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right....intraseasonal variability, which proves my point....it's always going to exist to some extent and there are folks acting as though it will not.

I can’t speak for people speaking in absolutes. My position/prediction is that the pattern will be unfavorable the vast majority of the time. Not going to sugar coat that part. Also won’t say “it won’t ever snow.” I don’t even do snow predictions on a seasonal scale, not my thing or main area of interest. 

[MJO812]

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Then how was it more favorable earlier in the season if the vortex was so far to the east? I had well over a foot of snow right before xmas... February had no method of cold delivery into the CONUS in 1998....I don't feel like that will be the case this during that particular potion of the season, though it will in the mean. Forcing is also stronger and more expansive not only to the east, but to the west.

I feel like people are getting too carried away with the magnitude and orientation of El Niño and are far too linear in their thought process...obviously it's going to play a huge role around the globe and will thus impact our sensible weather to a significant extent, but it's not at all the only factor....a few of you guys are acting like nothing else exists and it operates in a vacuum. 

 

[EasternLI]

30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Euro op verbatim actually had a SSW wind reversal at 12z. That's an outlier, obviously needs to be tossed. There's been no support for that. Weird set of runs at 12z though. It's strange to me seeing the EPS more bullish than the GEFS in the strat... Usually it's the opposite. Euro AI is more like American guidance, but I don't know how well the Euro AI handles the strat either. Will be interesting to see which idea is more correct. It's crazy early to be just considering any of that too but here we are.