2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I still think it’s too cold. If I were to reconstruct the expected pattern you just described on a T2M map for the Feb mean, I’d expect more light red in Western Canada and lighter blue in the SE. That CFS map implies deeper and more persistent Arctic cold, which I don’t agree with. 

As @bluewave has shown, much of the seasonal guidance has verified too cold for +ENSO episodes. 

They're all pretty BN in the SE, so they'll all be wrong ir right to one degree or another. 

[forkyfork]

clinging to the february cfs like a displaced ukrainian child clinging to a doll

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

As @bluewave has shown, much of the seasonal guidance has verified too cold for +ENSO episodes. 

-2016: much less E based Nino

In the E US, the mid-Oct ‘15 forecast mean CFSv2 for Feb ‘16 actually verified slightly too warm overall in the E US!

Verification of Feb ‘16 (vs 1981-2010):

 

-2024, much weaker and less E based Nino:

The mid-Oct ‘23 mean CFSv2 forecast for Feb ‘24 verified too cold NE but wasn’t too far off in the SE and was very close deep SE:

 

Verification of Feb ‘24 (vs 1991-2020):

 

 How will it do for Feb ‘27? We’ll see! Yes, although I’m not at all trusting any model, I’m excited about the Feb potential (not Dec at all and not much for Jan though that could very well be transitioning):

 

[forkyfork]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

-2016: much less E based Nino

In the E US, the mid-Oct ‘15 forecast mean CFSv2 for Feb ‘16 actually verified slightly too warm overall in the E US!

Verification of Feb ‘16 (vs 1981-2010):

 

-2024, much weaker and less E based Nino:

The mid-Oct ‘23 mean CFSv2 forecast for Feb ‘24 verified too cold NE but wasn’t too far off in the SE and was very close deep SE:

 

Verification of Feb ‘24 (vs 1991-2020):

 

 How will it do for Feb ‘27? We’ll see! Yes, although I’m not at all trusting any model, I’m excited about the Feb potential (not Dec at all and not much for Jan though that could very well be transitioning):

 

the models from four months ago missed the warmest october on record

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the models from four months ago missed the warmest october on record

no one's asked me buuut,   personally, confidence in any seasonal modeling is lower than even the usual eye-rolling when the model being use has "climate" baked into it's title and/or physical make-up.

[GaWx]

 Feb in the E US will likely be heavily affected by the Feb NAO. The CFSv2 is implying a strong -NAO in Feb ‘27.

-These Ninos had a strong +NAO in Feb: 1992, 2016, 2024

 Here’s the Feb temp anom composite:

 

-These Ninos had a strong -NAO in Feb: 1958, 1966, 2010

Here’s the Feb temp anom composite:

[forkyfork]

lol at using any year from before 2016

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

If this is indeed the most east based event it would also explain a shifted IOD signature instead of it being on the west coast of Indonesia, we see the cool water signature just north of Darwin. Which would put the 'warm' signature side around the SW coast of India.

I agree with Typhoontip I look at IOD as a result of ENSO state not additive (the Baja waters could also be argued a result), more so I see PDO as an additive to the overall sentiment of El Nino.
I do find it fascinating though we can reach extremely +IOD events in non existent Nino years (ala 2019), yet 2015 barely made it past +1 in the index. Same with Baja, 2023 had a strong cold tongue for an event measured in ONI data near +2.
https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/overlay-iod/
 

Very strong/super El Niños do “force” a +IOD to develop, I’d agree. It would be near impossible for one not to form with a Nino this strong. Then once it does form it constructively interferes and complements the Nino. As far as the ++PMM (Baja) this year, I believe that’s one of the main factors that caused this El Nino to be the most east-based we’ve ever seen, surpassing the previous most east-based Nino on record (1997-98). The strong +PMM/east-based Nino relationship was discussed in a research paper I shared on here back in the spring and it turned out to be correct

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[EasternLI]

Looks like they recently raised the scale a degree on these. +12C has expanded. Let's get some +13...

 

[snowman19]

Looks like they recently raised the scale a degree on these. +12C has expanded. Let's get some +13...
 

The 30C isotherm/warm pool has actually strengthened and expanded in size. The center of it is at 140W. Absolutely insane

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Feb in the E US will likely be heavily affected by the Feb NAO. The CFSv2 is implying a strong -NAO in Feb ‘27.

-These Ninos had a strong +NAO in Feb: 1992, 2016, 2024

 Here’s the Feb temp anom composite:

 

-These Ninos had a strong -NAO in Feb: 1958, 1966, 2010

Here’s the Feb temp anom composite:

@GaWx

Your SE trough is showing up nicely on the last 2 weeks of today's weeklies. Pretty much in line with seasonal. 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

@GaWx

Your SE trough is showing up nicely on the last 2 weeks of today's weeklies. Pretty much in line with seasonal. 

Pretty snowy overall on the weeklies for alot of the country going into December. Even some snow up here.

[so_whats_happening]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Very strong/super El Niños do “force” a +IOD to develop, I’d agree. It would be near impossible for one not to form with a Nino this strong. Then once it does form it constructively interferes and complements the Nino. As far as the ++PMM (Baja) this year, I believe that’s one of the main factors that caused this El Nino to be the most east-based we’ve ever seen, surpassing the previous most east-based Nino on record (1997-98). The strong +PMM/east-based Nino relationship was discussed in a research paper I shared on here back in the spring and it turned out to be correct

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please post the paper or tag your old post. The issue with many of these oscillations and indices is we bound them to very specific regions. Yes more often than not they tend to fall in those areas we have bounded them into but not always the case and we need to take that into consideration when relying on them for forecasts. Again if this is the most east based event we have seen then it would make sense that IOD is displaced from the normal bounds which would put us at much lower anomaly come late November when it typically peaks.

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Looks like they recently raised the scale a degree on these. +12C has expanded. Let's get some +13...

 

The +12 scale has been there the whole time even back to the 90's. We are on track to peaking now so roughly a month ahead of 1997/98. SON likely the peak trimonthly and OND will either hold or slightly weaken.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

These are absolutely, positively related, and over the next couple of weeks, I'll be alienating myself from my family to explain in the most vivd detail imaginable why, and how.

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

Latest CFSv2 10 day mean 850 mb fcast anomalies for Feb of 2027: note that >75% of Conus BN, including ~1/3 of Conus 2-4 C BN, along with the extreme warmth in E Canada that is consistent with strong blocking there allowing the diverting of dominant Arctic cold into much of Conus:

——————
In stark contrast, mid-Oct forecast for Feb ‘24: 85% AN in Conus/no block in E Canada in that much weaker/much less E based Nino vs 26-7:

—————
In sharp contrast to mid-Oct forecast for Feb ‘16: only <15% BN, none sub -2C, and less extreme Canadian warmth centered >1,000 miles W of the Feb ‘27 forecast in that much less E based Nino vs 26-7: