2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Not your typical strong El Nino

Negative PDO is the opposite of what they have. It's not a cooler north pacific. Where they have a Low pressure is really a High pressure. 

[LakePaste25]

38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't know why you've taken on the stance that everything is normal with the El Nino and H. Hemisphere pattern. It clearly is not. We have not seen more than 4 consecutive N. Pacific low days since the El Nino began in April. 

Oct-Nov.. -0.38 max

Dec.. -0.32 max

To say that too much on the correlations and then post QBO correlation is ridiculous! I know the QBO is not anything different from random. It's not a practical surface level indicator perhaps beyond the AO effects. 

It definitely is more influential than the PDO. The PDO is a cumulative reflection of the base ENSO state over the years, it is an extratropical oceanic index that has little to no effect on the long wave pattern. 

[Jebman]

20 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Not your typical strong El Nino

What this means is:

Mid Atlantic will see more cold air intrusions, some of which WILL time with immense moisture to produce HECS in DC;

Texas will get chilly but end up dry as crud. What else is new.

So, in summary----- EXCITING atypical Nino Winter in the Mid Atlantic which will have frequent Siberian intrusions, some resulting in major snows, flooding rains in the Southeast, and cool weather in the Southwest and mostly dry (Texas is well west of The Plume), and the Midwest will be drier than normal, milder than normal, West and Pac NW will be milder with some storminess and the SNE/NE may see a few Nor'easters.

[SnoSki14]

On 10/14/2026 at 1:42 AM, MJO812 said:

Not your typical strong El Nino

Definitely will see tons of volatility but that doesn't mean snow either.  We could have powerful, wet systems though if any arctic air gets involved then maybe. 

[snowman19]

The new EURO run is off the charts. All time record-breaking in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4 and by a lot. This is the projected traditional ONI for each region next month, keep in mind that the El Niño will still be strengthening at this point. It has the final peak happening in December



My guess is that the ONI/RONI peaks in December. Guess for peaks:

ONI: +4.1C - +4.2C

RONI: +3.5C - +3.6C

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Negative PDO is the opposite of what they have. It's not a cooler north pacific. Where they have a Low pressure is really a High pressure. 

Eh, details...it looks awesome, though, right?

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

It definitely is more influential than the PDO. The PDO is a cumulative reflection of the base ENSO state over the years, it is an extratropical oceanic index that has little to no effect on the long wave pattern. 

Right, but it's a refection of hemispheric forcing that absolutely has a profound effect on the long wave pattern. You are missing the point....it's like seeing a juiced-up disturbance ridging the STJ and up the coast, but telling people not to worry about the arctic high parked over Ottawa because it can't produce precipitation. Sure, but it will interact with entities that absolutely can. Stop viewing the atmosphere in a vacuum and focus on how everything interacts. You don't consume a bag of flower for dessert, right? No, you bake into the pie first.

[A-L-E-K]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The new EURO run is off the charts. All time record-breaking in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4 and by a lot. This is the projected traditional ONI for each region next month, keep in mind that the El Niño will still be strengthening at this point. It has the final peak happening in December



My guess is that the ONI/RONI peaks in December. Guess for peaks:

ONI: +4.1C - +4.2C

RONI: +3.5C - +3.6C

ready 2 torch

[40/70 Benchmark]

@LakePaste25I'd love to hear why the PDO isn't reflective of crucial forcing. The "X" emoji's are similar to the gaudy AI visuals in that they add very little value.

-PDO is not reflective of El Nino, but rather a competing force...you can ignore it at your own peril, or figure out what said force is and account for it.

[LakePaste25]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@LakePaste25I'd love to hear why the PDO isn't reflective of crucial forcing. The "X" emoji's are similar to the gaudy AI visuals in that they add very little value.

-PDO is not reflective of El Nino, but rather a competing force...you can ignore it at your own peril, or figure out what said force is and account for it.

-PDO is reflective of a multi year La Nina state, which we have been in up until this event started. The idea that we should expect the strongest El Niño in our lives to be impacted by extratropical <20C waters in the pacific due to the fact that we were in a multi year Niña is not something I agree with. PDO regions do not show up on any Rossby wave map as a source. The multiple posts in here suggesting that the pattern we have had in summer and autumn was not only influenced by the PDO but primarily caused by the PDO is absurd to me.  

[bluewave]

It’s great that the JMA has a chart showing the actual forecast SSTs. The current run now has the potential of the +30C warm pool getting pushed all the way east into Nino 1+2.

Since Nino 1+2 reaches its annual peak from late winter into spring, at least one daily +4 in February would be possible since the average starts to climb above 26C. Nino 3 is similar to these values. So it’s a good bet the +30C warm pool will make it at least as far east as Nino 3. 

The 30C warm pool is usually the area where the tropical forcing tends to gravitate to. So while the ENSO anomalies will probably peak in December, the absolutes may not peak in the Nino 3 and 4 regions until February. 

So this first +30C warm pool getting so far east may produce a delayed El Niño peak forcing effect due to the historic buildup of record EPAC warmth. 

The JMA forecast charts show the actusl SSTs leveling off in December in Nino 3.4 and continuing to rise right into February in Nino 3 and 1+2.

 

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/wmc/products/model/indices/3-mon/indices1/shisu_forecast.php

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

-PDO is reflective of a multi year La Nina state, which we have been in up until this event started. The idea that we should expect the strongest El Niño in our lives to be impacted by extratropical <20C waters in the pacific due to the fact that we were in a multi year Niña is not something I agree with. PDO regions do not show up on any Rossby wave map as a source. The multiple posts in here suggesting that the pattern we have had in summer and autumn was not only influenced by the PDO but primarily caused by the PDO is absurd to me.  

Thanks for the elaboration. We can agree to disagree. I don't think it's the <20C waters that is the issue, but rather the continued high-octane OHC that has been building in the western portion of the basin relative to the eastern section over the past decade plus. Obviously the west PAC has always been warmer given the Walker Cycle, but I think part of the reason we have seen this barrage or La Nina events this decade is due to the growing disparity between the west/eastern basins as a product of CC augmenting the cool phase of the multidecadal cycle. Sure, now we have the unprecedented magnitude of this El Nino finally working to restore some balance, but I have a hard time believing there won't be any resistance.....I think we are seeing that with respect to the lethargic rate of recovery of the PDO, most prominently evidenced by the warmth building east of Japan, as well as the residual disconnect between the El Nino and sensible weather over the course of the summer and into the fall. This battle is why I feel the forcing is modeled west of the intense-El Nino composite.

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s great that the JMA has a chart showing the actual forecast SSTs. The current run now has the potential of the +30C warm pool getting pushed all the way east into Nino 1+2.

Since Nino 1+2 reaches its annual peak from late winter into spring, at least one daily +4 in February would be possible since the average starts to climb above 26C. Nino 3 is similar to these values. So it’s a good bet the +30C warm pool will make it at least as far east as Nino 3. 

The 30C warm pool is usually the area where the tropical forcing tends to gravitate to. So while the ENSO anomalies will probably peak in December, the absolutes may not peak in the Nino 3 and 4 regions until February. 

So this first +30C warm pool getting so far east may produce a delayed El Niño peak forcing effect due to the historic buildup of record EPAC warmth. 

The JMA forecast charts show the actusl SSTs leveling off in December in Nino 3.4 and continuing to rise right into February in Nino 3 and 1+2.

 

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/wmc/products/model/indices/3-mon/indices1/shisu_forecast.php

 

 

You were resisting me on the importance of the 30C warm pool with respect to forcing when it was modeled south of Hawaii, and I was arguing it would compete with the east-based El Nino, but now that there is support for it getting further east it's full-steam ahead. lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm not crazy about the JMA this season....it has continued to try to turn this event into a Modoki, which never made much sense to me, and makes even less since now that it's getting the warm pool that far east.

[LakePaste25]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks for the elaboration. We can agree to disagree. I don't think it's the <20C waters that is the issue, but rather the continued high-octane OHC that has been building in the western portion of the basin relative to the eastern section over the past decade plus. Obviously the west PAC has always been warmer given the Walker Cycle, but I think part of the reason we have seen this barrage or La Nina events this decade is due to the growing disparity between the west/eastern basins as a product of CC augmenting the cool phase of the multidecadal cycle. Sure, now we have the unprecedented magnitude of this El Nino finally working to restore some balance, but I have a hard time believing there won't be any resistance.....I think we are seeing that with respect to the lethargic rate of recovery of the PDO, most prominently evidenced by the warmth building east of Japan, as well as the residual disconnect between the El Nino and sensible weather over the course of the summer and into the fall. This battle is why I feel the forcing is modeled west of the intense-El Nino composite.

It likely will not flip positive long-term because of subsurface warmth in the extratropical W pac from the semi-permanent La Niña state that we’ve been in. So if it flips (I’m confident it will, it won’t last). PDO is very slow to respond and it’ll take a multi-year Nino state to reverse it, just like it took a multi year Nina state to get it where it is today. To get that multi year Nino we need a stretch of Modoki’s just like during the 2010s. East based supers are not very conducive unfortunately. 

I think it’ll we will get that favorable stretch in the 2030s, but just to be clear, my position on this is that a +PDO in the 2030s will not be the reason for any favorable pattern in the E, it’ll simply be a consequence of a multi year modoki/favorable pattern.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said:

It likely will not flip positive long-term because of subsurface warmth in the extratropical W pac from the semi-permanent La Niña state that we’ve been in. So if it flips (I’m confident it will, it won’t last). PDO is very slow to respond and it’ll take a multi-year Nino state to reverse it, just like it took a multi year Nina state to get it where it is today. To get that multi year Nino we need a stretch of Modoki’s just like during the 2010s. East based supers are not very conducive unfortunately. 

I think it’ll we will get that favorable stretch in the 2030s, but just to be clear, my position on this is that a +PDO in the 2030s will not be the reason for any favorable pattern in the E, it’ll simply be a consequence of a multi year modoki/favorable pattern.  

Right...like I said in my original point, which you disagreed with....PDO is not the driver, but it is reflective of the drivers, so it shouldn't be ignored.

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You were resisting me on the importance of the 30C warm pool with respect to forcing when it was modeled south of Hawaii, and I was arguing it would compete with the east-based El Nino, but now that there is support for it getting further east it's full-steam ahead. lol

I have been taking about the importance of the +30 C warm pool for years now. Back over the summer we were discussing the potential of the +30 C warm pool off of Mexico linking up with the Nino +3 +30C warm pool. So not sure what resistance you are referring to. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I have been taking about the importance of the +30 C warm pool for years now. Back over the summer we were discussing the potential of the +30 C warm pool off of Mexico linking up with the Nino +3 +30C warm pool. So not sure what resistance you are referring to. 

I was arguing that the forcing would be little to the west of the super-El Nino composite due to that, and you disagreed....it was like a couple of weeks ago.

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was arguing that the forcing would be little to the west of the super-El Nino composite due to that, and you disagreed....it was like a couple of weeks ago.

I don’t think we were discussing the same exact parameters.

The Nino 3 Euro forecast is nearly identical to the JMA keeping the Nino 3 anomalies over +4 into late January or February. The Nino 1+2 forecasts for both the JMA and Euro are similar.

The reason I posted the JMA is that the Euro doesn’t  have an absolute forecast on their site only the anomalies. So we have to work out the Euro absolutes manually.

So even if the actual Nino 1+2 absolutes top out at say 29.5 C, there will likely be +30C actual SSTs just to the north near Central America or even near southern Mexico.

You can see the forcing bridge on the Euro developing linking Nino 3.4 all the way over to Central America. This is signaling how far east the +30C warm pool is going to be similar to the JMA and Euro absolutes.

 

 

[snowman19]

Just a friendly disagreement, I think the forcing is actually going to end up to the east of the super El Niño composites because of the anomalously (record) east 30C warm pool. It is going to alter the global heat budget and shift the main forcing IMO

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I don’t think we were discussing the same exact parameters.

The Nino 3 Euro forecast is nearly identical to the JMA keeping the Nino 3 anomalies over +4 into late January or February. The Nino 1+2 forecasts for both the JMA and Euro are similar.

The reason I posted the JMA is that the Euro doesn’t  have an absolute forecast on their site only the anomalies. So we have to work out the Euro absolutes manually.

So even if the actual Nino 1+2 absolutes top out at say 29.5 C, there will likely be +30C actual SSTs just to the north near Central America or even near southern Mexico.

You can see the forcing bridge on the Euro developing linking Nino 3.4 all the way over to Central America. This is signaling how far east the +30C warm pool is going to be similar to the JMA and Euro absolutes.

 

 

Yes, but you are neglecting the western portion of that "birdge", which actually has the heaviest precipitation anomaly...this is why I argue for increased variability relative to the super composite.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just a friendly disagreement, I think the forcing is actually going to end up to the east of the super El Niño composites because of the anomalously east 30C warm pool. It is going to alter the global heat budget and shift the main forcing IMO

You would think that would be reflected in the precip output, but perhaps the models are just in error in that regard.

We shall find out. 

BTW, I think the break did you well....your approach to disagreement is noticeably different and great for discussion.

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, but you are neglecting the western portion of that "birdge", which actually has the heaviest precipitation anomaly...this is why I argue for increased variability relative to the super composite.

With the historic +30C warm pool pushed so far to the east, we are just going to have to wait and see what effects the western extent of the +30C warm pool are relative to the eastern side. 

Plus the pattern since May has been the seasonal models underestimating the southward extent of the ridging across the CONUS.

So it’s possible the typical super El Niño ridge position south of Hudson Bay gets shifted further south than usual. The ridge wound up further south than the 2023-2024 seasonal winter forecasts and that was a much weaker event than this one. 

This stronger mid-latitude ridge has been leading to the persistent -PDO +AMO pattern during the 2020s. 
 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

With the historic +30C warm pool pushed so far to the east, we are just going to have to wait and see what effects the western extent of the +30C warm pool are relative to the eastern side. 

Plus the pattern since May has been the seasonal models underestimating the southward extent of the ridging across the CONUS.

So it’s possible the typical super El Niño ridge position south of Hudson Bay gets shifted further south than usual. The ridge wound up further south than the 2023-2024 seasonal winter forecasts and that was a much weaker event than this one. 

This stronger mid-latitude ridge has been leading to the persistent -PDO +AMO pattern during the 2020s. 
 

 

 

 

Total agreement.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Total agreement.

I also agree with Snowman that the forcing could be stronger further east than the models are showing since this is such an extreme event. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I also agree with Snowman that the forcing could be stronger further east than the models are showing since this is such an extreme event. 

Yea, we'll just have to see. I understand that....this is why it wouldn't be wise to hedge towards an outcome as severe as 1965.

[40/70 Benchmark]

To be fair, models have also be underestimating that warm pool east of Japan, which is the primary driver of the residual -PDO...so that goes both ways...can be said for both competing forces.