2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

none of your little indicies are going to stop the displaced pac vortex from flooding the country with marine air all winter

Winter cancel ?

[Keith Central PA]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This is by far the strongest signal for a warm December since 2015

A +12 month with Christmas Day at 70..I doubt we see that but who knows?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This is by far the strongest signal for a warm December since 2015

Yeah, there are years when you just sniff out a warm December. 2015, 2021, and 2023 were pretty obvious. The Weather Channel had these predicted months in advance. This year looks like that way as well. 2026 would make it the 4 warmest Decembers ever in 12 years.

[snowman19]

A +12 month with Christmas Day at 70..I doubt we see that but who knows?

Nowhere in that post did I say as warm as 2015, I said “the strongest warm December signal since 2015”

[Keith Central PA]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Winter cancel ?

I'm sure they'll be winter weather sometime between late November and late March. Just expect much of the winter to have temps above normal. Probably lots of rain.

[Keith Central PA]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Nowhere in that post did I say as warm as 2015, I said “the strongest warm December signal since 2015”

A good indication will be late October and early November, that's when the torch began leading to that insane Decmber month..Lets see if we see that in a few weeks

[PhiEaglesfan712]

12 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

A good indication will be late October and early November, that's when the torch began leading to that insane Decmber month..Lets see if we see that in a few weeks

2021 and 2023 were warm in October and cool in November before torching in December. Then again, those were -QBO years, with 2021 being a la nina. 2023 was a strong nino.

If I remember correctly, 2015 had a very warm late August and September. October was the odd cool month in the bunch.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2021 and 2023 were warm in October and cool in November before torching in December. Then again, those were -QBO years, with 2021 being a la nina. 2023 was a strong nino.

If I remember correctly, 2015 had a very warm late August and September. October was the odd cool month in the bunch.

Like anything, when warmth dominates a pattern, it doesnt mean there will be no cold shots. And its impossible to pinpoint when they will be. I will be surprised if there isnt a spell of cold/snow in the Great Lakes in November.

[EasternLI]

Another big time WWB is in progress currently. This time pushing east of the dateline. First chart are the actual zonal winds.

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Keith Central PA said:

I'm sure they'll be winter weather sometime between late November and late March. Just expect much of the winter to have temps above normal. Probably lots of rain.

All about blocking.  

[LakePaste25]

+EAMT beginning to show up in the models towards the end of october with high SLP east of the Himalayas. Watch out for a jet extension and +PNA after. 

 

[GaWx]

17 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Euro and AI Euro ensembles are switching to -NAO around Oct 22, fwiw, after +NAO for several weeks

GEFS also sees this:

 

 The most similar El Niño Octobers to this forecast of a solid -NAO in late Oct after a mainly +NAO in early to mid Oct are 1976 and 1963 with 2002 the next most similar.

@Stormchaserchuck1

[MJO812]

Not your typical strong El Nino

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not your typical strong El Nino

Thanks, Anthony. One thing I’ll say is that there’s nothing unusual about having a W QBO during a very strong El Niño as:

-1957, 1982, and 2015 had it

-1965, 1972, 1991, and 1997 didn’t