2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[The Iceman]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its crazy to think an area that relatively far north can have an entire snow season with 0.2" or 1.2".

I’m even further north(20 miles NE of Philly) and have had 2 seasons with 1.5” or less since 2019-2020. (2019-20 and 22-23)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Similarities to 2025 over the past 5 months

2025 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA
2026 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA

2025 Aug +PNA
2026 Aug +PNA

2025 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO
2026 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its crazy to think an area that relatively far north can have an entire snow season with 0.2" or 1.2".

I had 1.8 that winter.

[mitchnick]

11 hours ago, MJO812 said:

How much longer are people going to dismissals what this is showing ? We are getting closer. 

Maybe this winter will not be as bad as people think.

I wonder if the Cfs2 winter 23/24 temp forecast from 9/11/23 was discounted? I guarantee you it was...but it would have been by me! Lol

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/202309/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

They're not always climo come September. Cfs2 was actually on the right path come early September, 2023. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Cold water developing to the west. Also subsurface anomalies approaching -3c below 150E. We may be headed to La Nina for 27-28. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Cold water developing to the west. Also subsurface anomalies approaching -3c below 150E. We may be headed to La Nina for 27-28. 

83-84 and 16-17 early leaders in the clubhouse....

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Aug was the 5th consecutive month of +AO. Here's how that historically rolls forward to the cold season

Doesn't this fly in the face of your theory of summer +AO leading to winter time -AO?

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

83-84 and 16-17 early leaders in the clubhouse....

73-74 if it gets stronger...

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doesn't this fly in the face of your theory of summer +AO leading to winter time -AO?

Since 2012 May-Sept SLP 60-90N is reversing 60-90N H5 for the Winter. A lot of that raw +correlation is NAO-related. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Since 2012 May-Sept SLP 60-90N is reversing 60-90N H5 for the Winter. A lot of that +correlation is NAO-related. 

So that implies +AO/-NAO? I'll bet against that-

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So that implies +AO/-NAO? I'll bet against that-

-AO/+NAO. There is like 90% corrlation between nao and ao, mostly over Greenland. The actual 60-90N Im calling AO but officially it's 90% correlated to NAO domain, further SE. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

-AO/+NAO. There is like 90% corrlation between nao and ao, mostly over Greenland. The actual 60-90N Im calling AO but officially it's 90% correlated to NAO domain, further SE. 

Ah, okay...that makes sense. I agree with that.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 Super east-based Nino's on record since 1948 (ONI) [72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, 23-24] had the following ENSO +1-2 years after (RONI):

9 La Nina's
1 ENSO Neutral
0 El Nino

+1 year:

5 La Nina's
0 ENSO Neutral
0 El Nino

+2 year:

4 La Nina's
1 ENSO Neutral
0 El Nino

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I wonder if the Cfs2 winter 23/24 temp forecast from 9/11/23 was discounted? I guarantee you it was...but it would have been by me! Lol

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/202309/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

They're not always climo come September. Cfs2 was actually on the right path come early September, 2023. 

People were saying canadian would change by September. Well. Its held steady. Not saying its right, but it has not caved to a mild winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

People were saying canadian would change by September. Well. Its held steady. Not saying its right, but it has not caved to a mild winter. 

Often times when seasonal guidance misses, it never caves....it just misses.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Its 0.0 month lead forecasts are so bad that it will probably hold that look up until Dec lol

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Its 0.0 month lead forecasts are so bad that it will probably hold that look up until Dec lol

Or maybe its right . The next two runs will be key .

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Or maybe its right . The next two runs will be key .

I think seeing our first Aleutian low of the El Nino will be key

[bluewave]

The summer 500 mb pattern was as opposite as you can get from a developing super El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere. The 500mb ridges dominated where the troughs were supposed to be. 

But the Southern Hemisphere response during their winter may give us some clues what to expect here.

Notice how the 500mb ridges were stronger than the expected troughs. It was obvious near New Zealand and South America.

This would translate into a weaker Aleutian Low and weaker low pressure near the Southeast U.S and or Western Atlantic than is usual for such a strong El Niño.

Could mean a warmer more dominant ridge pattern over North America than is typically the case for a super El Niño event. 

Should this occur during our winter, then it would follow the general pattern regardless of ENSO of the 500mb ridges being more impressive than the troughs since the 2015-2016 super El Niño.

 

https://www.pyreweather.org/map/?variable=height&level=500&region=World&mode=anomaly&months=202606%2C202607%2C202608&fill_mode=shaded&climo_source=r2-monthly

 

 

 

[qg_omega]

Record warmth summer and winter 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Similarities to 2025 over the past 5 months

2025 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA
2026 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA

2025 Aug +PNA
2026 Aug +PNA

2025 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO
2026 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO

 

-AO/+PNA winter en route.....confirms what I had already figured.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Its 0.0 month lead forecasts are so bad that it will probably hold that look up until Dec lol

Yes, and I'm not being facetious....quite literally.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Or maybe its right . The next two runs will be key .

Sure, but we have good reasons to believe that it isn't. I could still doubt that you're one of NYC's finest after you show me your badge and a pic of you sleeping in the cruiser, but that doesn't change the facts.

No runs are key if the model incessantly suffers from an erroneous initialization. Again, this doesn't necessarily mean an awful winter is en route, it just means that CANSIPS output is highly flawed. Maybe we will make out okay and score a HECS...both can be true, and in fact, I suspect that they are.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/histdata/

 

Its kind of a pain vs the others but at least it is still operational. 

@Stormchaserchuck1

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Proceed with EXTREME caution using the Cansips

 

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

SE yes. But it does climo or better in other areas. 

[LakePaste25]

Sorry but I cannot justify using a model that can’t even initialize the El Niño at its *current* initial state correctly.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

SE yes. But it does climo or better in other areas. 

So it's going to be too low with heights in the southeast, but nail the northeast and mid atlantic?

Good luck-

[mitchnick]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So it's going to be too low with heights in the southeast, but nail the northeast and mid atlantic?

Good luck-

Well, by the shadings, it hasn't in the past been nailing any areas. But has been doing better in some areas over others. For example, last year it did well in parts of the MW, NE, and MA while missing out west. Plus, the bottom map is an average over the last 30 years from what I'm seeing; probably the top one too. I wonder how accuracy would change if only looking back the last 5 years when there are obviously improvements with modeling.

I don't know about you, but there is an obvious concerted effort by the CC monetaryists, if I may call them that, to poo-poo any seasonal forecast that isn't a wall-to-wall Conus toaster oven. And I  would put Jonathan Wall into that category based on the 100+ posts he's made that have shown up on this Board.

Nobody knows with certainty how this winter will play out other than odds definitely favor AN in many areas of the Conus. But efforts to contradict/attack seasonal modeling is always a red flag to me.

[mitchnick]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think seeing our first Aleutian low of the El Nino will be key

Average for last 5 days ending 384 hours off the 0z Geps fwiw.