2026-2027 El Nino

[A-L-E-K]

U all ready 2 torch?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

34 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

U all ready 2 torch?

You keep saying the same thing over and over

[snowman19]

 

Here comes more WWBs. I think this is going to be a record-breaking TC season in the PAC….

 

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

[A-L-E-K]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You keep saying the same thing over and over

So that's a no?

Better get your mind right

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

So that's a no?

Better get your mind right

Not sold on a super el nino and especially not on a torch. I do think it will be milder here than the last 2 cold winters, however.

[snowman19]

The models are starting to go bonkers with multiple TC’s developing in the PAC over the next week…..
 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

+3c subsurface now stretches all the way from 160E to 90W

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

So that's a no?

Better get your mind right

Worse yet -- you don't read the thread. You are just copy and pasting what you said B4

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

[George001]

On 4/24/2026 at 8:32 AM, GaWx said:

 Even if the KW were to verify as strongest in history (however long the recorded history of KWs is), why the “Very very massive yikes”? That wording implies to me that that’s worrisome. Why would that be something to get worried about? Are we in trouble? To me this is just more of his being over the top and not professional.

Agree. The facts are fairly straightforward. An El Niño is developing, and it is developing similarly to previous strong and super ninos. If it does become a super Nino it won’t be the first one, and certainly won’t be the last. Personally I don’t think it’s a huge deal, I mean im not too happy about it because it’s an unfavorable ENSO state for cold and snow for my area, but it’s not like the El Niño itself is an actual threat to our lives or anything. 2015-2016 happened, life went on. Same thing will happen with this event.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for posting.

 I like how Leon Simons’ tweet shows the stats and how strong the latest CFSv2 has RONI peaking. But I don’t like that he used the word “dystopian” and said “No one is prepared.” What do you and others think?

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks for posting.

 I like how Leon Simons’ tweet shows the stats and how strong the latest CFSv2 has RONI peaking. But I don’t like that he used the word “dystopian” and said “No one is prepared.” What do you and others think?

Well we survived the 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 super Ninos. I think we’ll make it through this one too….

[snowman19]

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

That second post is entirely generated by AI. Cool to know that you’re fine with posting slop so long as it hits all of the Paul Roundy super El Niño talking points. 

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

That second post is entirely generated by AI. Cool to know that you’re fine with posting slop so long as it hits all of the Paul Roundy super El Niño talking points. 

Dear stupid cow,

That’s actually what the new RONI forecast shows, which is not generated by AI you vapid little airhead

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Dear stupid cow,

That’s actually what the new RONI forecast shows, which is not generated by AI you vapid little airhead

The raw RONI and Cfs forecasts are usually way more extreme than the bias corrected, which often more accurate at this range. Bias corrected RONI still <2. I've never seen any of these posters mention the bias corrected. 

[roardog]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The raw RONI and Cfs forecasts are usually way more extreme than the bias corrected, which often more accurate at this range. Bias corrected RONI still <2. I've never seen any of these posters mention the bias corrected. 

I wonder what type of tweets the bias corrected Snowman19 would post. They would probably be more moderate to strong El Niño tweets instead of super. Its too bad we don’t have access to that. 

[GaWx]

 Phase 1 peaked way up at ~2.73 amplitude this month. Only 2018 (also ~2.73) and 2009 (~2.75) had a higher phase 1 peak in April going back to 1975. Both were pre-Nino years like 2026.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

I wonder what type of tweets the bias corrected Snowman19 would post. They would probably be more moderate to strong El Niño tweets instead of super. Its too bad we don’t have access to that. 

Im taking a stab in the dark, but i think snowman is going with a super nino.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 days of strong -SOI, moving the 30-day average to the lowest since 23-24 El Nino

26 Apr 2026	1010.40	1011.90	-28.05	-9.61	3.89
25 Apr 2026	1010.94	1012.50	-28.48	-9.08	4.09

[GaWx]

 OHC and buoys both show sharp warming since early April:

OHC: only ~+1.6 early April

OHC: ~+2.0 to +2.1 mid April!

 

[paulm]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 OHC and buoys both show sharp warming since early April:

OHC: only ~+1.6 early April

OHC: ~+2.0 to +2.1 mid April!

 

Tracking 1997 closely in the upper ocean. Currently well above recent non-super El Nino years. Chart from James Hansen as of March.

https://mailchi.mp/caa/super-duper-el-nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Does anyone trade weather derivatives or is familiar with it? It's kind of frustrating that this May pattern was predictable far in advance -- March was 2nd most +NAO on all of records, going back to 1950. The +2 month, following May's had a strong below average temp signal:

So here we are in May, and it's verifying

Sometimes in weather forecasting there are these strong leads -- and I would like to be able to use knowledge to increase capital. 

PNW warmth was very predictable from pre-El Nino year May's, a composite that has been working out every month since November 2025:

[Cobalt]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Dear stupid cow,

That’s actually what the new RONI forecast shows, which is not generated by AI you vapid little airhead

Not the chart (which you already reposted with a Tweet 2 posts before this one btw), but the entire content of the tweet leading up to it

Every line containing the hallmarks of AI, completely synthetic fluff packaged into a tweet format. I sincerely hope you don't follow this guy and just found them by searching up keywords like "Super El Nino", but I also wouldn't put it past you. 

[snowman19]

2 days of strong -SOI, moving the 30-day average to the lowest since 23-24 El Nino

26 Apr 2026	1010.40	1011.90	-28.05	-9.61	3.89
25 Apr 2026	1010.94	1012.50	-28.48	-9.08	4.09

[snowman19]

^”The RONI.. newer “relative” index - which takes our warmed climate into account - is like +2.7 which would be close to a record (if averaged over 3 months). The current record is +2.5°C in 1982-83.”
 

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

 OHC and buoys both show sharp warming since early April:

OHC: only ~+1.6 early April

OHC: ~+2.0 to +2.1 mid April!

 

We can see why the recently initialized models like the CFS are going higher. This is the first time since 1997 with an OHC reading reaching over 2.0° in April.

Remember, 1982 didn’t reach this level of heat until October. Plus even 2015-2016 only peaked at 1.91 and not until October.

My guess is that the ECMWF release on May 5th will increase its forecast over the April 5th levels once this record kelvin wave and OHC is initialized.

So it appears we are on track for our first two El Nino events with a peak over +2.0 only separated by 3 years. We may not know what the ceiling is on this one until we get into late May or June. But it looks higher than 2023-2024 due to how strong this is becoming early on.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt