2026-2027 El Nino

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, roardog said:

It’s not just 2023 though. Didn’t Nino years like 1976(or was it 1977) and 2002 do the same? I know 2002 had April heat and a very cool May. Obviously those years didn’t end up being strong Nino. I think it’s more of just a “Nino thing” regardless of eventual strength.

Yes, we have had numerous 90°+ events in the Northeast during developing El Niños in April. But the 500mb forecast most closely matches 2023 with a shift to strong blocking. Makes sense since this one is coupling with the atmosphere and is much stronger early on like 2023.
 

 

[LakePaste25]

Can really see how things start to diverge in terms of position of the warmest SSTa’s after December. With Nino 1+2 warmth (east-based), Jan and Feb are also warm. With Nino 3.4, the correlation starts to break in Feb. With Nino 4 (central to west pacific), it actually correlated to a cold Feb. So while December is universally expected to be mild regardless, whether we get a backloaded winter or near wall to wall torch is based on whether the anomalies are focused on the Eastern Pacific vs Central.

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

 

 

 Based on the above maps for Jan, I’m going to consider renting a place in Anniston, AL, just for that month. 

[roardog]

I see the SOI has gone strongly positive in the last couple of days. I don’t know how long that’ll last though.

[snowman19]

Subsurface anomalies over +5C showing up:

[GaWx]

42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Subsurface anomalies over +5C showing up:
 

The 5+ is centered pretty far west (140-160 W, which is west central 3.4. Hoping that’s a sign that El Niño will be center to west based like Cansips suggests and not east based like NMME shows.

[so_whats_happening]

Well this was quite the surprise to see

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

Feb/Mar MEI at -1, responses were starting to show in March but I will be curious if Mar/Apr will start to move toward neutral at least. While oceanic response seems to be there atmospherically something is off.

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The 5+ is centered pretty far west (140-160 W, which is west central 3.4. Hoping that’s a sign that El Niño will be center to west based like Cansips suggests and not east based like NMME shows.

The KW is about to emerge on the South American coast. The models are showing it developing as an east-based/East Pacific event. Then we will have to see if it stays east-based or becomes basin-wide:

 

 

 

Research shows that +PMM El Nino’s strongly support east-based events. We have a very strong (record strong actually) +PMM this year:

“A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.”

^Link: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other%20climate%20modes%20further%20complicate,and%20NPO%2C%20on%20ENSO%20evolution.

+PMM:

 

 

 

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Based on the above maps for Jan, I’m going to consider renting a place in Anniston, AL, just for that month. 

That is one funky looking standout of blue. Jokes aside, I know you know it, but remember its all relative. The coldest winter ever recorded in Anniston, AL is warmer than the warmest winter ever recorded here. I feel like when we are so far out from the next winter, its easy to focus too much on temps. 

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

Keep in mind that these are straight 1991-2020 anomalies rather than RONI equivalent anomalies that are relative to warm average global tropical anomalies. So, there’d still be some blue if that were the case being that there’s ~0.5C diff.

[roardog]

5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Well this was quite the surprise to see

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

Feb/Mar MEI at -1, responses were starting to show in March but I will be curious if Mar/Apr will start to move toward neutral at least. While oceanic response seems to be there atmospherically something is off.

I feel like our indices, oscillations, etc are becoming more distorted as time goes on due to the warming oceans. The SOI for March was also quite positive so I guess that’s another sign of the atmosphere being off from the oceanic response.

[snowman19]

[chubbs]

Recent rise in Nino 3.4 SST is similar in timing and magnitude to last 3 super ninos. Chart below shows 1982, 1997 and 2015 along with this year.

[snowman19]

I don’t think we are going to have to wait for the spring barrier to end with this one. It has already tipped its hand, just like 1982, 1997 and 2015 did by this time. The big ones all do. IMO this one is headed to super and very likely to be an east-based/EP event
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Well this was quite the surprise to see

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

Feb/Mar MEI at -1, responses were starting to show in March but I will be curious if Mar/Apr will start to move toward neutral at least. While oceanic response seems to be there atmospherically something is off.

As we saw back in 2023-2024, the atmospheric response from the El Nino Ridge parked just north in Canada and the Northern Tier of the CONUS was one of the strongest on record. But the El Niño trough expression through the Aleutian Low and trough across the south to the Mid-Atlantic was much weaker than usual for such a strong Nino ridge which lead to the record warmth with that event.

So even the ONI reaching 2.1 really didn’t do that event justice since it failed to incorporate the record Nino 4 +30C warm pool which was the warmest on record. You will notice that the MEI and SOI responses were also much weaker than usual for such a strong event.

It will be interesting to see as this one develops whether the SOI, MEI, and RONI lag behind again. All I can say at this early juncture is that the WWB atmospheric component from March and April was much stronger than in 2023 near all time record values leading to the very impressive OKW beneath the surface.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

The only strong el ninos that didn't tip their hand early were 1986 and 2009.

Super El Ninos (when they reached el nino threshold for good)

1972 - RONI MAM (0.8); ONI AMJ (0.7)

1982 - RONI MAM (0.6); ONI MAM (0.5)

1997 - RONI MAM (0.5); ONI AMJ (0.8)

2015 - RONI FMA (0.5); ONI SON 2014 (0.5)

Strong El Ninos (when they reached el nino threshold for good)

1957 - RONI FMA (0.7); ONI MAM (0.7)

1965 - RONI AMJ (0.6); ONI AMJ (0.5)

1986 - RONI JAS (0.6); ONI ASO (0.7)

1991 - RONI AMJ (0.5); ONI AMJ (0.5)

2009 - RONI ASO (0.6); ONI JJA (0.5)

2023 - RONI JJA (0.6); ONI AMJ (0.6)

[snowman19]

@Bluewave This El Niño is projected to become extremely well coupled (ocean-atmosphere) with a “Bjerknes feedback” response by June. Mirroring the super events of 1982, 1997 and 2015. A very strong +IOD is also forecasted to develop this summer, which will further constructively interfere with the Nino. I have a feeling we are going to remember this one for a very long time:

“When it comes to El Niño, atmospheric changes matter just as much as changes in sea temperatures.

That's because it's a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon.

Looking at velocity potential, which marks areas of rising air (green) and sinking air (brown) in response to warming and cooling tropical seas, a strong atmospheric El Niño response is forecast this year starting in June.

That response is predicted to be quite similar to past big El Niño events, such as in 2015, 1997, and 1982.

However, the atmospheric response in 2026 is forecast to be much different — and much stronger — than in 2023.

These changes in the Walker Circulation arise from warm seas shifting from west to east across the tropical Pacific, which causes more thunderstorms in the east and fewer toward the west.

This ultimately has flow-on effects on weather patterns across the planet due to changes in jet streams, as those thunderstorms release heat into the atmosphere.”

[GaWx]

 The cold biased CDAS 3.4 is still rising rapidly as it is now up to +0.404, a rise of ~0.1/day the last 4. Equivalent RONI is ~-0.1 although bc RONI is probably ~+0.1:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

As we saw back in 2023-2024, the atmospheric response from the El Nino Ridge parked just north in Canada and the Northern Tier of the CONUS was one of the strongest on record. But the El Niño trough expression through the Aleutian Low and trough across the south to the Mid-Atlantic was much weaker than usual for such a strong Nino ridge which lead to the record warmth with that event.

So even the ONI reaching 2.1 really didn’t do that event justice since it failed to incorporate the record Nino 4 +30C warm pool which was the warmest on record. You will notice that the MEI and SOI responses were also much weaker than usual for such a strong event.

It will be interesting to see as this one develops whether the SOI, MEI, and RONI lag behind again. All I can say at this early juncture is that the WWB atmospheric component from March and April was much stronger than in 2023 near all time record values leading to the very impressive OKW beneath the surface.

You know we're screwed when Chris starts saying "it will be interesting to see".....thereafter, you can insert a means for the demise of the impending winter.

Are you able to access the latest ERA 5 data...ie for the entire month of March? I am encountering the same issue as with NCAR...

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, chubbs said:

Recent rise in Nino 3.4 SST is similar in timing and magnitude to last 3 super ninos. Chart below shows 1982, 1997 and 2015 along with this year.

Current RONi equivalent is ~+0.1 though it’s risen ~0.4 the last 4 days. So, in a few days it would be up a few more tenths if the same rise rate were to hold.

 How does +0.1 compare to RONI equivalent for the other 3?

1982/97: +.0.4

2015: +0.9 but it had a head start vs others

 

 So, it could be near 82/97 soon IF the rapid rise continues.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

[snowman19]

[chubbs]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Current RONi equivalent is ~+0.1 though it’s risen ~0.4 the last 4 days. So, in a few days it would be up a few more tenths if the same rise rate were to hold.

 How does +0.1 compare to RONI equivalent for the other 3?

1982/97: +.0.4

2015: +0.9 but it had a head start vs others

 

 So, it could be near 82/97 soon IF the rapid rise continues.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

April RONI - 1982 - 0.48 and 1997 - 0.49. Closer to ONI as expected since tropics were cooler