2026-2027 El Nino

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

 Nino 3.4 SSTa levels have finally started rising during the last 2 days, a 0.2C increase. Often there’s a delayed response to strong -SOI levels as they usually don’t produce SST rises immediately (reminder: these are straight rather than relative but the point is the rise):

[GaWx]

It’s the 15th and still no March QBO has been released. What in the wide, wide world of sports is going on? It never has taken more than a few days into the new month to release it.

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

It’s the 15th and still no March QBO has been released. What in the wide, wide world of sports is going on? It never has taken more than a few days into the new month to release it.
 

 

@GaWx This is all I’ve seen so far:

 

 

 

 

And on a side note, this WWB is about to blow 1997 away…..

Paul Roundy: ”I'm really just highlighting that over the next couple of weeks, this signal will explode beyond anything we presently see in these indicators, because the wind stress accrued to the Pacific over the last several days is 50% more intense, in terms of wind stress at the ocean surface, than the comparable event in 1997.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

 The EWs have cooled considerably for Apr 20-26 in the NE vs 5 days ago:

5 days ago: mild NE 

 

Today’s: cool NE

[raindancewx]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have a very low tolerance for people who can't disagree without hurling insults......talk about a tell-tale sign of feelings of inadequacy. Ball-busting sarcasm is one thing, but there is simply no place for calling anyone an idiot, or referring to their postulation as "idiotic". 

You are an idiot. The fact that it offends you just means you believe it. Presumably if I called you an pedophile you wouldn't be offended because you're not a pedophile. You spend these threads trashing ideas hiding behind idiotic premises of "bull busting" so no one can call your behavior. Its an excuse to criticize what you don't like and then when someone dares criticize you you hiss and moan like a little baby and run to the mods. You dish and refuse to take.

You never actually learn anything. Here are all the Super that don't "self destruct" which has been the entire premise of your theory this entire thread out of the left side of your mouth, while on the right side you hem and haw about how it won't be a super event anyway. Literally half of the ENSOs at/over +2.0C haven't self-destructed, so yes it is an idiotic idea that could be disprove with five seconds of thinking, which you don't do. Anything that has a 50/50 tendency is not a tendency.

1957-58 became 1958-59 after hitting +2.0C. 1965-66 became 1966-67, 1991-92 became 1992-93 - none of those are La Ninas. 1997-98, 1982-83, 1972-73, 2015-2016 arguably became La Nina but even those are kind of bullshit La Nina since 1983-84 and 2016-17 were extremely warm by South America and below the surface. So the entire premise...is at best 50/50 which is again...stupid as a baseline for forecasting.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

You are an idiot. The fact that it offends you just means you believe it. Presumably if I called you an pedophile you wouldn't be offended because you're not a pedophile. You spend these threads trashing ideas hiding behind idiotic premises of "bull busting" so no one can call your behavior. Its an excuse to criticize what you don't like and then when someone dares criticize you you hiss and moan like a little baby and run to the mods. You dish and refuse to take.

You never actually learn anything. Here are all the Super that don't "self destruct" which has been the entire premise of your theory this entire thread out of the left side of your mouth, while on the right side you hem and haw about how it won't be a super event anyway. Literally half of the ENSOs at/over +2.0C haven't self-destructed, so yes it is an idiotic idea that could be disprove with five seconds of thinking, which you don't do. Anything that has a 50/50 tendency is not a tendency.

1957-58 became 1958-59 after hitting +2.0C. 1965-66 became 1966-67, 1991-92 became 1992-93 - none of those are La Ninas. 1997-98, 1982-83, 1972-73, 2015-2016 arguably became La Nina but even those are kind of bullshit La Nina since 1983-84 and 2016-17 were extremely warm by South America and below the surface. So the entire premise...is at best 50/50 which is again...stupid as a baseline for forecasting.

I'm not offended. I'm proud of my work over the last decade plus...learned a ton. I'm just tired of your loathsome, vile persona acting as though you're superior to everyone and always spewing venom.

When in the hell did I run to the mods? I know as a byproduct of your incredibly meager existence you repeatedly made baseless claims of me plagiarizing your work....I called that out, but I don't recall ever getting mods involved. That accusation is every bit as accurate is your idiotic claim about the "smiley" snowfall pattern leading to another shitty east coast winter. Of course, you never acknowledged that. 

Okay, cool...you found a couple of exceptions ....of course, within this context the sample size is no longer an issue, and those examples can be used to completely debunk my assertion because it's convenient. "The sample size" crap is so fraudulent when you aren't consistent with it. 

Like I said, put your money where your keyboard is and take the bet, if I'm such an idiot. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't "use it to forecast". It's just something I have noticed about the strongest of events. I love how 1983 and 2016 are qualified as BS when in fact they were officially designated as La Niña....that is BS. 1966-1967 sure as hell seems cool-neutral to me........1957 and 1991, sure....I'll grant that. Must be a sample size issue

I don't think I used any offensive language in my response to Chuck.....if he feels as though I did, by all means, let me know. At least to me, employing sarcasm is different than using incendiary terms like "idiot". And yes, as a father of four young children and a licensed independent social worker/therapist, I would be immensely offended if I were called a pedophile, despite the fact I have never harmed any child. Frankly. I find your analogy utterly disgraceful, but it doesn't surprise me coming from you.

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The EWs have cooled considerably for Apr 20-26 in the NE vs 5 days ago:

5 days ago: mild NE 

 

Today’s: cool NE

Yeah, the atmosphere seems to be following the April 2023 developing El Niño script. Both April 2023 and 2026 have featured early record 90°+ warmth in the Northeast. Then a reversal to cooler and strong blocking to close out the month. 
 

 

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the atmosphere seems to be following the April 2023 developing El Niño script. Both April 2023 and 2026 have featured early record 90°+ warmth in the Northeast. Then a reversal to cooler and strong blocking to close out the month. 
 

 

I could see an evolution like 2023-2024, but hopefully we would have a more conducive western Pacific this go around to the extent that we would at least have a fighting chance to score a decent period or two.

[snowman19]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could see an evolution like 2023-2024, but hopefully we would have a more conducive western Pacific this go around to the extent that we would at least have a fighting chance to score a decent period or two.

I think this one (El Niño) ends up stronger than 2023-24. That said, there are some very notable differences:

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think this one(El Niño) ends up stronger than 2023-24. That said, there are some very notable differences:

 

 

 

 

Yea, I can't even begin to say at this point. Contrary to what some are implying.....I haven't "forecast" anything yet. I have said numerous times that I don't even begin to delve in until after the spring barrier. While I have opined on several occasions throughout the thread that I doubt that a super El Nino will materialize, that is simply an early guess based on superficial observations. If June comes around and the data strongly suggests that we are going over 2.0, then my initial ENSO blogs will reflect that. I don't know why on earth anyone would struggle to distinguish casual discourse on an internet forum from an actual forecast. If it can be found and linked on my blog, then it's a forecast...if you are quoting a guess from an internet thread in March or April, then that isn't a forecast. That said, at the end of the day, the only forecast that is graded is what I post in the seasonal write up released in early November....data changes throughout the year, which is not a novel concept because seasonal forecasting is immensely complex, fluid and multifaceted. 

I often respond to dissenting viewpoints with sarcasm...yes, as I opt to inject humor into any semblance of conflict in an effort to mitigate tension. This is different from name calling in my mind. However, if it turns out that I am wrong, as was the case concerning the El Nino of 2023-2024, I think that both yourself, as well as @bluewavewould attest to the fact that I wholeheartedly capitulated and offered congratulations. I then authored a long blog post in an effort to illustrate where I exactly I went stray as part of a concerted effort to avail of the opportunity to learn from my mistake.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/05/winter-2023-2024-outlook-largely-failure.html

Everyone makes errors, but an "idiot" refuses to own them, and then ultimately acquiesce to an alternative view point in order to gain a greater breadth of perspective. I think I have aptly demonstrated a willingness to do so by way of my online contributions to this forum.

[FPizz]

23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Great...."now batting for East Coast Winter Enthusiasts....Dave....Kingman".

5 out of the last 10 have been mid-range here (between 18-30) just 30 miles SE of NYC.  I'd say that is more Ted Williams. 

[LakePaste25]

CANSIPs shows lingering nina-like convection in the maritime continent, while the CFS shows a classic nino response that slowly propagates eastward into winter.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, FPizz said:

5 out of the last 10 have been mid-range here (between 18-30) just 30 miles SE of NYC.  I'd say that is more Ted Williams. 

Eh....maybe more like replacement level...say Darren Bragg

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/darren-bragg/83/stats/batting

[roardog]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the atmosphere seems to be following the April 2023 developing El Niño script. Both April 2023 and 2026 have featured early record 90°+ warmth in the Northeast. Then a reversal to cooler and strong blocking to close out the month. 
 

 

It’s not just 2023 though. Didn’t Nino years like 1976(or was it 1977) and 2002 do the same? I know 2002 had April heat and a very cool May. Obviously those years didn’t end up being strong Nino. I think it’s more of just a “Nino thing” regardless of eventual strength.

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

It’s the 15th and still no March QBO has been released. What in the wide, wide world of sports is going on? It never has taken more than a few days into the new month to release it.

 

 

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1. March ‘26 QBO: I just emailed the PSL

2. More on the 3.4 warming: these are straight rather than relative

+0.531 for latest OISST, a rise from +0.15 just 4 days ago and implies a RONI having risen back to just above 0.0. Thus despite this rise, I still see almost no way April will average up at +0.6 for RONI, which is what BoM is forecasting: 

 

Latest CDAS, which has a cold bias: +0.25 vs ~0 just 2 days ago
 

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

1. March ‘26 QBO: I just emailed the PSL

I got a quick email reply, but it contains bad news regarding getting QBO updates: 

“Hi

The QBO we have is produced using the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis which has ended production. We are trying to determine how we will compute this time series.

See https://psl.noaa.gov/news/2026/r1datanotice.html

Cathy S.

Your PSL Data Team”

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

I got a quick email reply, but it contains bad news regarding getting QBO updates: 

“Hi

The QBO we have is produced using the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis which has ended production. We are trying to determine how we will compute this time series.

See https://psl.noaa.gov/news/2026/r1datanotice.html

Cathy S.

Your PSL Data Team”

What an absolute disaster that they have ended the NCAR reanalysis.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 4/2/2026 at 7:21 AM, bluewave said:

We should still be able use ERA 5 now for 500MB reanalysis dataset which first becomes available about 5 days after the month ends.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/

 

Chris, I am unable to use the ERA 5 data set to retrieve the latest data, either...am I missing something?

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 4/5/2026 at 9:06 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

El Nino/+QBO December's:

6/6 months were warm in the Great Lakes/NE

 

On 4/14/2026 at 10:26 PM, raindancewx said:

If you look at March 2026, it was very +NAO, very -WPO, transitioning La Nina-->El Nino.

The blend is closest in magnitude to 1986, 2014, and directly opposite March 1980, 2010 for all three factors.

Been decent for March & April so far for a very simple conceptual match, although 2026 has been more extreme.

March: 1986, 2014, -1980, -2010

April: 1986, 2014, -1980, -2010 - might be decent by month end.

Both the super -WPO and super +NAO in March support a pretty cold West in December. The maps are correlation based so +NAO green = warm, blue cold, -WPO green = cold, blue = warm. The 1986, 2014, -1980, -2010 blend is almost identical to the -WPO blend.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 4/9/2026 at 8:10 AM, bluewave said:

Even during a weak La Niña this winter, the ridges were the strongest on record compared to past weak La Niña events like 1995-1996 with -WPO /SW ridge and Greenland blocking.

If we get a strong to very strong El Niño, then it could potentially lead to a stronger 500mb El Nino ridge to the north and weaker Aleutian Low and Southeast trough like 2023-2024. The exact location where the 500 mb ridge maxes out will be important. Remember how all the models underestimated the ridge and overestimated the trough. They incorrectly had the classic strong El Niño stock composite with deep troughs.

Perhaps if the El Niño passes a certain threshold, then at least the Aleutian Low and maybe the Southeast Trough can be stronger. But we may have to wait until the winter to observe the exact response since these seasonal 500mb forecasts usually are missing some key elements.

Even though several models had a -WPO and Southwest ridge for last winter, none came close to how strong it was. 
 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

 

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For the Dec-Mar period, the southwestern ridge reigns supreme. An area over +5 standard deviations from the 1991-2020 normal. The eastern Siberia anomaly was *only* +4.5 standard deviations.

 

 

 

Do you have the link for the site that was used to generate that map?

[michsnowfreak]

On 4/14/2026 at 5:19 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Natural Gas is at the lowest price since 2024, and NG/Crude Oil and NG/Gasoline spread is near record lows. That's a warm sign (or +NAO favored) for next winter. 

How can NG "predict" weather trends months in advance?

[MJO812]

35 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

How can NG "predict" weather trends months in advance?

Its all a crapshoot 

[40/70 Benchmark]

45 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

How can NG "predict" weather trends months in advance?

It's undoubtedly the best indicator...follow the $.