2026-2027 El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^CPC was putting out long range Winter outlooks that looked like that: warm in the SE, cooler in the NE. Then last month they updated with a full on El Nino composite for the Winter. 

[LakePaste25]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The new Cansips has winter anomalies significantly colder in the NE than the SE:

 For all of the Ninos peaking at +1.5+, not a single one going back at least to 1895-6 had a colder NE than SE anomaly wise! Not even one!
 
 These are the winters: 2023-4, 2015-6, 2009-10, 2002-3, 1997-8, 1991-2, 1987-8, 1986-7, 1982-3, 1972-3, 1965-6, 1957-8, 1940-1, 1930-1, 1925-6, 1918-9, 1902-3, 1899-00, and 1896-7. That’s 19 winters, a nice sample size suggesting the CANSIPS E US winter temp. anomalies and a strong El Niño prog aren’t at all jibing with history.

 Here is the aggregate of those 19 winters:

 

Edit: Even going all of the way down to peaks of +1.0 yields the same result, no winter colder in NE than SE. That adds 13 more for a total sample size of 33!

I see it has some split forcing showing up with some lingering convection in the west pacific. Also appears to be more basin-wide. I agree - i think a +TNH outcome like that is probably overkill even if there’s split forcing.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I see it has some split forcing showing up with some lingering convection in the west pacific. Also appears to be more basin-wide. I agree - i think a +TNH outcome like that is probably overkill even if there’s split forcing.

 

Yea, I could buy some vestige of it remaining, but it's probably overdone.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@bluewaveLooks to me like the Pac jet was up to it's old tricks again in March, as the blocking for met winter abated and the MJO, albeit largely favorable, remained weak.

[FPizz]

47 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Oh no! That's the best site on the internet! Why the heck would they stop it?

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It did well last year. I was skeptical it would end up that cold. Interesting to see how it does this year.

I’m looking for it to bust badly assuming El Niño verifies. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I’m looking for it to bust badly assuming El Niño verifies. 

Last Summer the CANSIP had -5 anomalies around the Great Lakes and Midwest at 0.0 month (the 1st of the month). It verified +2-3 lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

I’m looking for it to bust badly assuming El Niño verifies. 

What does it look like in the ENSO region?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What does it look like in the ENSO region?

Brings ENSO warm as far west as New Guinea lol

[GaWx]

52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What does it look like in the ENSO region?

What Chuck said. It has a healthy strength Nino, probably nearing or exceeding +1.5 ONI. That doesn’t as you know at all jibe with the La Ninaish temperature anomaly pattern it has for the US and Canada. Like I said, I’ve found no +1.0+ Nino winter anything close to the Ninalike configuration Cansips has out of 32 of them! Really weird and why I expect its overall Ninaish US temp. configuration to badly bust if a decent El Niño were to verify.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Tomorrow we might hit +5c in the subsurface on TAO/Triton. I don't think I've ever seen it so warm. Will have to compare vs analogs. 

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Tomorrow we might hit +5c in the subsurface on TAO/Triton. I don't think I've ever seen it so warm. Will have to compare vs analogs. 

I think 1997 might have gotten that warm or close to it in the subsurface at one point 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I think 1997 might have gotten that warm or close to it in the subsurface at one point 

Yeah, April 1997 had a really warm subsurface

[snowman19]

32 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, April 1997 had a really warm subsurface

Image links aren't working. I'll try to upload image later

Yea, 1997 got insanely warm in the subsurface starting in the spring like this one appears to be doing. SSTs ended up peaking in region 3.4 on the weeklies at +2.8C the last week of November, 1997

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The way Nino 4 is warming is so interesting. Again, only 2 April's on record had higher than +0.500 monthly for later in year >+1.2 El Nino's (out of 15):

April 1997: +0.59

April 2015: +0.98

We are at +0.511 on April 1. There is so much warm potential energy for things to easily go strong. 

PhillyEaglesfan may not get his Strong Nina for a while. 

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The way Nino 4 is warming is so interesting. Again, only 2 April's on record had higher than +0.500 monthly for later in year >+1.2 El Nino's (out of 15):

April 1997: +0.59

April 2015: +0.98

We are at +0.511 on April 1. There is so much warm potential energy for things to easily go strong. 

PhillyEaglesfan may not get his Strong Nina for a while. 

Said it the other day, but I think “high-end” strong is going to be the floor with this event, with super prospects increasing 

@bluewave

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think it will be basin-wide like 2015-16

2015-16 is also a +QBO match later in the year, and Phoenix which broke it's DJFM Temp record by 4.2 degrees this past Winter, number 2 on record was 2014-15, before the 2015 El Nino. 

Best analog right now imo

[so_whats_happening]

I don't know how anyone is surprised about the lack of data/products.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Global SSTA are about as classic as it gets right now for later in the year Nino 3.4 El Nino

^Even the Atlantic matches lol

[PhiEaglesfan712]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The way Nino 4 is warming is so interesting. Again, only 2 April's on record had higher than +0.500 monthly for later in year >+1.2 El Nino's (out of 15):

April 1997: +0.59

April 2015: +0.98

We are at +0.511 on April 1. There is so much warm potential energy for things to easily go strong. 

PhillyEaglesfan may not get his Strong Nina for a while. 

I wouldn't be too sure. After the 1997-98 event, a double-year strong la nina followed.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I wouldn't be too sure. After the 1997-98 event, a double-year strong la nina followed.

I'm not too sure we go cold ENSO after this El Nino. We had 5/6 recent Nina years. History says 4/6+ reverses +1-4 years 2:1 (El Nino favored 2x over La Nina)

We also had a Strong Nino in 23-24, history says +3-5 years after that, El Nino is also favored 2:1. 

+ENSO tendency for 27-28 and 28-29 may temper the Nina snap back. 

[raindancewx]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

100-180W warmth, 0-300m down for Jan/Feb/Mar. 

2026: +0.49 / +1.15 / +1.28

Closest Matches since 1979 - all too cold v. CFS/Canadian for US temps in April. 1997/2015 are close - but 1997 is more impressive since it followed multiple cold ENSO years while 2015 followed...a weak El Nino. We've warmed up way faster than 1982 or 2023 as well.

2019:  +0.59 / +0.94 / +1.19

2015:  +0.15 / +0.83 / +1.52 

1997:   +0.56 / +1.00 / +1.17

1990:  +0.78 / +1.08 / +1.14

Blend: +0.52 / +0.96 / +1.26

You can verify if "El Nino" ish stuff is happening without the US data. Japan maps anomalies monthly with a bit of a lag.

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/climatview/frame.php?&s=7&r=4&d=0&y=2026&m=2&e=4&t=1000&l=5115&k=0&s=7

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

Upon further review, Cansips is progging a W to C based ~+2 to +2.2 ONI from SON through JFM. I’d assume that would mean ~+1.5 to +1.7 W to C based RONI. Nothing bad about that if it were to verify. But I’m taking it w/grain due to La Niña temp pattern, which doesn’t make sense per history.

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where are we going for daily H5 charts now that this site is no longer updating?

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/

This site is fine for temps and precip.

https://prism.oregonstate.edu/comparisons/anomalies.php

We should still be able use ERA 5 now for 500MB reanalysis dataset which first becomes available about 5 days after the month ends.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, GaWx said:

What Chuck said. It has a healthy strength Nino, probably nearing or exceeding +1.5 ONI. That doesn’t as you know at all jibe with the La Ninaish temperature anomaly pattern it has for the US and Canada. Like I said, I’ve found no +1.0+ Nino winter anything close to the Ninalike configuration Cansips has out of 32 of them! Really weird and why I expect its overall Ninaish US temp. configuration to badly bust if a decent El Niño were to verify.

 

It looks like a weaker El Nino....I would toss that for now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think it will be basin-wide like 2015-16

2015-16 is also a +QBO match later in the year, and Phoenix which broke it's DJFM Temp record by 4.2 degrees this past Winter, number 2 on record was 2014-15, before the 2015 El Nino. 

Best analog right now imo

I could see a somewhat weaker version of that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Winter is going to be mild...let's get that out of the way....but at least a basin-wide deal like 2015 allowed for a couple of wintry intervals, and maybe if it's a somewhat weaker version we can get away with a bit more. That's all I mean when I say "weaker"...I'm not trying to be one of those social medaiologists that are getting roasted by snowman on twitter.

[yoda]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Winter is going to be mild...let's get that out of the way....but at least a basin-wide deal like 2015 allowed for a couple of wintry intervals, and maybe if it's a somewhat weaker version we can get away with a bit more. That's all I mean when I say "weaker"...I'm not trying to be one of those social medaiologists that are getting roasted by snowman on twitter.

2015-2016 is acceptable

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, yoda said:

2015-2016 is acceptable

Right, but I think even the blizzard-zone would like to load the dice a bit more favorably with a somewhat weaker ENSO relative to that season.