Jan 30th-February 1st 2026 Arctic Blast/ULL Snow OBS Thread.

[Mrwolf1972]

Patiently waiting for the backfill 

[midwoodian]

Signal Mtn in with a dusting and picking up. Very fine snow.


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[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Should backfill over next couple of hours. 

I can see empty sky and the moon.  Gonna need some backfill clouds to start with.  LOL.

[Carvers Gap]

Per the 18z 3K NAM…I do think this builds some to the north and west of 81 in TRI….but just not sold this goes to anywhere near Euro levels in that area.  What I am getting is just cold air wringing out moisture at the lower levels.  I would guess the 3K NAM adjusts sharply downward at 0z for areas west of 81.  But I am willing to give it a chance.   With storms like these, I have watched this set up too many times to name…often it just never builds back this direction.  Holding steady at 1.25” of snow.   

[Tucker1027]

This is what the HRRR says is happening right now….


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[BlunderStorm]

2.6 inches on the measurement site and closing in on 4 in the grass with the old stuff. A combination of artificial and moonlight has visibility around three quarters of a mile with the flakes being very fine but numerous.

20F with calm breeze from the NNE. Patiently waiting for reinforcements hoping I'm not too NW yet I can't complain, this is one of the prettiest snows I have seen this decade.

[dwagner88]

There is an initial round of snow working its way through Hamilton County. The orientation is wrong for what I expect the main show to be. It honestly just resembles normal NW flow. I think as the ULL moves in this will re-orient into nearly a due N-S direction. Seeing some ground truth MPING reports in the city now. Nothing IMBY yet, but we should get some light precipitation shortly. 32 here.

[GBOVolz]

Just guessing…I’ve got a little over an inch


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[dwagner88]

1 minute ago, Tucker1027 said:

This is what the HRRR says is happening right now….


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While obviously too light overall, the heaviest portions of this are present, but are displaced to the west by 20-30 miles. If that holds true for the entire event, could be good news for SE TN.

[ShawnEastTN]

Got a nice dusting now, very wind blown snow.  If get any appreciable snow I could see there being drifts.

[ShawnEastTN]

Also this Arctic front has all on its own over performed from what most models seemed to show.  I expect we'll have a bit of a lull with maybe just flurries after this initial fropa before the actual ULL snows start up.

[bearman]

Looking east of me in west knox it seems the Radar wants to build in. It will kind of pulse and make you think it is going to then backs off. Just Don't have enough knowledge to know what or if this means anything. I know we have got a little less than a half inch, and we need it to fill in much more to get more than that.

[Scottie16]

Also this Arctic front has all on its own over performed from what most models seemed to show.  I expect we'll have a bit of a lull with maybe just flurries after this initial fropa before the actual ULL snows start up.

KOAX radar showed it catching up pretty quick.


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[Scottie16]

Looking east of me in west knox it seems the Radar wants to build in. It will kind of pulse and make you think it is going to then backs off. Just Don't have enough knowledge to know what or if this means anything. I know we have got a little less than a half inch, and we need it to fill in much more to get more than that.

It’s coming, this thing is moving sloooow.


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[Scottie16]

Fluffier flakes are moving east slowly past 27.


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[Silas Lang]

16 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

This is what the HRRR says is happening right now….


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I don't really understand the purpose of the HRRR? I hardly ever look at it even in regardless of season. Never seems it initialize with correct radar from the start and does not seem to recognize terrain as I never see any rhyme or reason to precipitation patterns. Never seems to pick up on NWF showers or any lighter moisture either.  Not trying to dunk on it, legitimately asking: what is this model good at and what is it used for? 

I prefer NAM and RGEM. Way better at temps and noticing dry slotting depending on scenario. 

[Scottie16]

I don’t think any model picked up on the moisture moving due south outta Michigan. Might be another suprise tomorrow.


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[John1122]

I guess it's NW flow with the Arctic air but it's still rolling quarters and nickels here. Down to 21.6 degrees. It's extremely fluffy, a normal snowball sized handful gets you about a ping pong ball sized one. 

I've somewhat overperformed the half inch forecast now. 

 

[TellicoWx]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I guess it's NW flow with the Arctic air but it's still rolling quarters and nickels here. Down to 21.6 degrees. It's extremely fluffy, a normal snowball sized handful gets you about a ping pong ball sized one. 

I've somewhat overperformed the half inch forecast now. 

 

Maybe it was a typo...suppose to be a 5 not .5 lol

[ShawnEastTN]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I guess it's NW flow with the Arctic air but it's still rolling quarters and nickels here. Down to 21.6 degrees. It's extremely fluffy, a normal snowball sized handful gets you about a ping pong ball sized one. 

I've somewhat overperformed the half inch forecast now. 

 

Dang I thought it over performed with my nearly half inch!  

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I guess it's NW flow with the Arctic air but it's still rolling quarters and nickels here. Down to 21.6 degrees. It's extremely fluffy, a normal snowball sized handful gets you about a ping pong ball sized one. 

I've somewhat overperformed the half inch forecast now. 

 

Close to mine but I'm not fortunate enough to get those big Flakes for whatever Reason. 

[John1122]

Just now, TellicoWx said:

Maybe it was a typo...suppose to be a 5 not .5 lol

They could try that but the text said half! I think it even said less than a half inch. 

911 scanner here is already starting with the donuts on the highway calls. 

[McMinnWx]

Finally got snow here in Athens. Flurrying right now, but coming down at a good clip! 

[John1122]

Just now, Daniel Boone said:

Close to mine but I'm not fortunate enough to get those big Flakes for whatever Reason. 

Mine were just tiny tiny flakes for an hour or two but they went up to nickels, then quarters and have been a mix since. 

[Greyhound]

Temp is at 26, been snowing steady for about three hours and have a decent amount from what I can tell……but surprised the roads are clear in our neighborhood. Kinda confused on that one.


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[GBOVolz]

The snow has been pretty moderate to maybe even a little more than moderate at times but now the flake size is getting bigger


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[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Mine were just tiny tiny flakes for an hour or two but they went up to nickels, then quarters and have been a mix since. 

Hopefully we get in on some of those. The main circulation should produce some heavy area's. May be more banded in nature but could be pretty intense imo. 

[Save the itchy algae!]

Not a huge fan of the radar right now. Snow has basically stopped in my neck of the woods.

[dwagner88]

Flurries in Apison. 

[Uncle Nasty]

Can confirm snow and 32° in Ooltewah. Went outside 10 minutes ago and nothing was falling, but it had that "smell and feel" in the air with the snowy looking sky. Let's hope it continues.

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