Is we back? February discussion thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah but you can see how their could be influence into the favorable phases in 2018. Interesting though.

Tough to say, but not necessarily...no more than MC....but would need to see a hovmoller to know for sure.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

At least metfan stopped posting his bullshit.

Hey Ants an OG here 

[HoarfrostHubb]

20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That was one damaging month. Probably as anomalous as Feb 34 15. But we learned from the past to never say never 

Was that the one when you got some insane rates for a while?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pretty good consistency with that VD Day Miller B on the GFS.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Was that the one when you got some insane rates for a while?

2011 8 in an hour 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pretty good consistency with that VD Day Miller B on the GFS.

Have 2014 VD sleet in my nightmares. Couldn't snow blower 8 inches of sleet and if you like shoveling sand it was cool 

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 The hope is that we change that look to more blocking. I’d like to see a better NPAC though. Some signs it was trying to happen.

Or perhaps there is no torch . Just some days in the 30’s. Certainly possible 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tough to say, but not necessarily...no more than MC....but would need to see a hovmoller to know for sure.

I wish we had those VP anomalies vs those diagrams. That would be better at showing the forcing. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Or perhaps there is no torch . Just some days in the 30’s. Certainly possible 

Nobody said a torch. Although verbatim that might end up one if briefly. 
 

Next week is not a torch. Even next weekend. It’s beyond that. Later next week into the week is when we start to ride the line. Just hope we are on the good side of it. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nobody said a torch. Although verbatim that might end up one if briefly. 
 

Next week is not a torch. Even next weekend. It’s beyond that. Later next week into the week is when we start to ride the line. Just hope we are on the good side of it. 

Well there were certainly texts and a few posts about a torch . I see a text about being torchy after V Day . I’ll leave it there 

[CoastalWx]

The reason why I go off on ACATT stuff both here and from online is how they either just assume ACATT no matter what and don’t look at anything, or they completely misinterpret things like PV disruption. Look at what’s happened now with the split. And btw the weeklies failed too so let’s not hump them just because they are cold and snowy. So many clowns out there.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Well there were certainly texts and a few posts about a torch . I’ll leave it there 

Yes as I said verbatim it would probably be a torch if guidance was right later in the 11-15 day. I’m not focused there yet. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Or perhaps there is no torch . Just some days in the 30’s. Certainly possible 

I think we get at least a couple in the 40s.

[ORH_wxman]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My main March analog along with 2001. 

2001 also kind of didn’t have the PV on our side for the most part. It was more over toward Europe and east Atlantic. Monster blocking in 2001 though. We did get a PV lobe in southeast Canada early that month which phased with the main trough to produce the interior New England HECS. 
 

But 2018 is prob the best example of not having the PV anywhere near us but still a prolific month due to the excessive blocking. That month didn’t have high end cold at all. We had basically a climo airmass for the first snow bomb on 3/7-8. A little colder for the Wilmington jackpot storm but still nothing impressive temp-wise. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I mentioned a few pages ago… But it’s going to be a torch unless something similar takes place to what took place nearing January 20, which was a resurgence of blocking that the models were not really handling very well – in other words it might be a little unexpected, but we could prove this to be another interlude more than an actual end to winter - post the 15th 

That question needs to be answered. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think we get at least a couple in the 40s.

I certainly can buy that. But that certainly is not a torch in late Feb when normals are near 40. With sun this time of year that can happen relatively easy 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The reason why I go off on ACATT stuff both here and from online is how they either just assume ACATT no matter what and don’t look at anything, or they completely misinterpret things like PV disruption. Look at what’s happened now with the split. And btw the weeklies failed too so let’s not hump them just because they are cold and snowy. So many clowns out there.

How can something fail if it hasn't happened yet ? My recollection is weeklies had a moderation mid month before it dug back in? Those 5 day averages fool people 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

How can something fail if it hasn't happened yet ? My recollection is weeklies had a moderation mid month before it dug back in? Those 5 day averages fool people 

They had this period coming up a lot colder. 

[JustinRP37]

I’m so confused by what is all going down in here. Normally I come here for more sensible discussions from the ny metro area. This has been a pretty great winter overall compared to the last half decade, but it has been dry. I see some moderation after this next cold shot, but I definitely don’t think winter’s back is broken. Some of the models are already hinting that the moderation may be short-lived. But today was about the best skiing at Belleayre I have ever had. Their snow depth is literally insane with also snowmaking whales 10+ feet high on many trails. 

I would absolutely be completely shocked if any of the Northeast gets shutout for the rest of the season. At a minimum I think we will see a few smaller snowfalls. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I wish we had those VP anomalies vs those diagrams. That would be better at showing the forcing. 

Phase 6-7

Look like east-based to perhaps hybrid regime.

From east to west...

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Phase 6-7

Look like east-based to perhaps hybrid regime.

From east to west...

Voodoo someone once told us 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pattern def did NOT match phase 6-7, which makes sense because it was so weak...blocking from the Feb SSW ran the show.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This what I said earlier...if anything it was weak MC forcing, which had no impact.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Voodoo someone once told us 

It was COD.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah Mar 2018 blocking was epic you’d have shortwaves pretty amplified out in the plains/Rockies and the thing would turn into a snow threat. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah Mar 2018 blocking was epic you’d have shortwaves pretty amplified out in the plains/Rockies and the thing would turn into a snow threat. 

Kind of like what the GFS is going VD Day.

[Typhoon Tip]

That was a significant move by the GEFs comparing the 12z to the 18z for the 15th.  Some deep members sprinkled around the spread  area with a mean closed low passing underneath

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think we are going to get a similar pattern...maybe dates don't coincide precisely and we don't get 50" of snow, blah, blah....but elite analog IMHO.

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Today was really nice.

Got up into the 20s at most elevations.  I could go for more of that.  Felt comfortable out there for once lol.

Been over a week since the last snowfall but I’ve still got my spots for fresh tracks.

It was a spectacular day. I was stuck inside working but it was my son’s day off and he went riding. Beautiful view of Mt. Washington from Groton, VT

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That was a significant move by the GEFs comparing the 12z to the 18z for the 15th.  Some deep members sprinkled around the spread  area with a mean closed low passing underneath

I'm going to take a big interest in that pretty quickly if it keeps that up and other guidance follows suit...has my attention. I love, love , LOVE the fact that we poised to head into a strong east QBO/cool ENSO finish with potential strat implications and SSTs about as cold as can be.