Is we back? February discussion thread

[WinterWolf]

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well when? I have marks from being buckled up since 2023.

You just got two feet!  The week before that you got 8”. 32” in January…For god sakes are you ever happy.  Your TBlizz.  We have two TBlizz’s now.   It’s been frigid, and it’s snowed..quite a bit.  What else do you expect out of a winter in SNE? 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

You just got two feet!  The week before that you got 8”. 32” in January…For god sakes are you ever happy.  Your TBlizz.  We have two TBlizz’s now.   It’s been frigid, and it’s snowed..quite a bit.  What else do you expect out of a winter in SNE? 

2015 I guess 

[WinterWolf]

51 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Totally depends on if , huge if, modeling doesn't change 24 times in 4 days. 

This is a good post.  Some folks looks at modeling and just assumes it’s 100% correct at 4-5 days lead. When is that ever even close to right?  

[Typhoon Tip]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There's luck involved in everything....chaos, whatever you want to call it."

You know ..philosophically, all luck is, is just not knowing why things occurred.  

If we look at a system, and assume all inputs into that system, then ... "air apparent" ( puns always on purpose to annoy - ) something unexpected occurs, we tend to call that luck - something unpredictable must have been introduced that was not a part of those inputs.    

SO, it begs the question ... if one was able to predict, thus reduce the unpredictable quotient to zero, does that remove luck?      It seems the answer to this question is rather academic - there is no luck. There is just knowing, or not knowing.  So the term luck is really just a semantic dance around the notion that we are limited in our outlooks - limited by the fact that we are not clever enough to predict all inputs into the system.   

This is why I wonder if Quantum Mechanics, which deals ultimately in probabilities of location in time and space, ... in fact, all probabilities, is just really a limitation of human perception - 

  

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

2015 I guess 

I guess so. Guy is at it every morning…every day the last month we heard how dry  and boring it looks.  Yet some how he got crushed.  And here we go again, still saying the same shit…every morning.  The two footer jackpot, an absolute frigid temps  didn’t satiate the greedy guy in Weymouth.  

[wx2fish]

42 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Absolutely! I don’t think there have been many AN days since Thanksgiving; at this point a 40 degree day is going to feel like 60!

Jan 8-15th were pretty mild with some double digit positive departures. That stretch kept the month overall from really hitting the next level overall. Still ended up solidly below normal though.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just going by what was mentioned. I had thought weeklies were cold and snowy thru mid Morch but apparently not or things changed. 

It’s changed. That’s not a cold pattern. We lose the source. But given climo hopefully good enough especially interior. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I guess so. Guy is at it every morning…every day the last month we heard how dry  and boring it looks.  Yet some how he got crushed.  And here we go again, still saying the same shit…every morning.  The two footer jackpot, an absolute frigid temps  didn’t satiate the greedy guy in Weymouth.  

It is what it is. Flaccid and boring. Now we watch it slowly melt.

[WinterWolf]

46 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

This winter seems much colder than last, right?

3 straight months(Nov Dec Jan) BN. It’s been a good run of consistent cold. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It is what it is. Flaccid and boring. Now we watch it slowly melt.

You’re silly. You sound like such a dumb person when you talk like that. Has been nothing of the sort.  You sir..are misled. Go back into your hole, and wimper some more. . Sad. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s changed. That’s not a cold pattern. We lose the source. But given climo hopefully good enough especially interior. 

Well when does the mild/warm pattern begin? Like next week ?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You’re silly. You sound like such a dumb person when you talk like that. Has been nothing of the sort.  You sir..are misled. Go back into your hole, and wimper some more. . Sad. 

Truth hurts 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Well when does the mild/warm pattern begin? Like next week ?

It’s not mild and warm. Closer to normal. But potentially more active which is fine with me. 

[The 4 Seasons]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It is what it is. Flaccid and boring. Now we watch it slowly melt.

glad to have you back

[CoastalWx]

We missed this, so called clip seems paltry and nothing for awhile. Sounds active to me. Hope everyone gassed up the snow blowers.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

glad to have you back

Sounds like 2-3’ incoming for Southington CT.

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That probably is a month not repeated for a long long time. The amount of storms and ferocity can’t be matched. 

You know what can’t be matched…is your propensity to constantly moan. Even if you are buried in two feet and single digit temps.
 

As a whole, so far this winter has been good to very good depending on exactly where one lives. And with another half still to go…And the snowiest month in front of us climatologically speaking,  we’ll see how we end up. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Truth hurts 

There’s zero truth in what you said. Zero! 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sounds like 2-3’ incoming for Southington CT.

I’m surprised at you. I’ll take 2-3” end of This week. Not a greedy person. Thank you. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Just imho, but any below normal month in this era+ is quite an achievement.  

There's probably a relativity value, like a monthly RONI for atmospheric departures, where a -1 month in 2026 becomes a greater significance compared to doing that in 1986   

A more here and now subject, I find this interesting from NASA for December.   I wonder what January will work out to.  I'm guessing it will be more negative in the mid latitudes ... just by arithmetic from the Climate Analyzer folks.  Their on-going monitoring has a whopper warm arctic domain, while the N.H. et al has sunk some... so in terms of anomaly distribution that only leaves the sub-arctic regions to be driving that downward trend.   

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Happy Feb 1st…

 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You know what can’t be matched…is your propensity to constantly moan. Even if you are buried in two feet and single digit temps.
 

As a whole, so far this winter has been good to very good depending on exactly where one lives. And with another half still to go…And the snowiest month in front of us climatologically speaking,  we’ll see how we end up. 

I’m talking about last week right through the 10th. Flaccid and boring. Unless you see a magic snowstorm that I don’t. Sun and cold doesn’t give me movement. I’ve taken advantage of what Mother Nature Has given me, but  fact is it looks boring for awhile.

[The 4 Seasons]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That probably is a month not repeated for a long long time. The amount of storms and ferocity can’t be matched. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

The amount of damage from the first storm on the coast wasn’t seen since 1991. It looked like a hurricane went through. Poles bent over, houses gone. Even though there was little snow, I won’t forget that wind.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

38/60 ish here well within reach with 8 weeks left.

I said six weeks because I know if I said eight people would jump down my throat about how March is barely a winter month and we rarely get March snow anymore, etc.

[CoastalWx]

That s/w on Friday does look tasty. Hopefully that can produce.

[WinterWolf]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We missed this, so called clip seems paltry and nothing for awhile. Sounds active to me. Hope everyone gassed up the snow blowers.

The so called clipper isn’t being completely modeled correctly at this juncture… so before you sell everything off Mr. Happy, just relax and enjoy the wintry feel and snowy landscape.  

 

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m talking about last week right through the 10th. Flaccid and boring. Unless you see a magic snowstorm that I don’t. Sun and cold doesn’t give me movement. I’ve taken advantage of what Mother Nature Has given me, but  fact is it looks boring for awhile.

You didn’t see any of the 32” that just hit you the last 2-3 weeks either. We can go back and find your posts saying exactly that. Saying boring and how you just can’t believe how it won’t snow in Weymouth. That sound just like todays posts do now. Yet somehow you’re at normal snowfall to date there.  Funny how that worked out.

Sit back and see what happens. got a whole second half about to start. Sucks we missed this one…I agree. Would have really been nice. But we’re in a good spot at the moment. Best winter since ‘21…Keep your chin up. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That s/w on Friday does look tasty. Hopefully that can produce.

Exactly.  

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The so called clipper isn’t being completely modeled correctly at this juncture… so before you sell everything off Mr. Happy, just relax and enjoy the wintry feel and snowy landscape.  

 

You didn’t see any of the 32” that just hit you the mast 2-3 weeks either. We can go back and find your posts saying exactly that. Saying boring and how you just can’t believe how it won’t snow in Weymouth. That sound just like todays posts do now. Yet somehow you’re at normal snowfall to date there.  Funny how that worked out.

Sit back and see what happens. got a whole second half about to start. Sucks we missed this one…I agree. Would have really been nice. But we’re in a good spot at the moment. Best winter since ‘21…Keep your chin up. 

Incorrect. I felt good about last week coming north. I posted exactly that and mocked that webb dude for saying it wasn’t. It looks quiet for awhile. Only thing is mane a few inches possible Friday night but that’s it until the pattern shakes up. There are no magic storms popping until that happens. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Destiny prove me wrong and so be it,   Friday is just an intense arctic boundary - probably one that also attenuates a little in guidance as the week goes forward.