The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

As panels advance, the wester differences gets more apparent

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Dunno looks like a east tick

Just now, Ji said:

Okay now it’s west. Let me shut up since Randy is ahead of me

this place is a fucking mess, good night

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

you baited us, ji was right. have ji do the pbp next time

Compare the panels at h5 junior from 60 to 66 where I was at that time and get back to me.

[DDweatherman]

Not looking at the runs, but it’s evident everything being west now isn’t everything for willing it closer. The line to be drawn on the coastal obviously has everything to do with tilt of the trough regardless of the location&base. 

[wxmeddler]

H5 is a tick west. Precip is a tick east. No winners though.

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

this place is a fucking mess, good night

Make sure you don't come back till Sunday.  Night

[stormtracker]

Just now, wxmeddler said:

H5 is a tick west. Precip is a tick east. No winners though.

Thank you.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Compare the panels at h5 junior from 60 to 66 where I was at that time and get back to me.

h5 does look better tho, surface kinda weird in that respect

[overcautionisbad]

Welp gg

[Chris78]

When does the GFS fold?

6z or 12z?

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Thank you.

Not a criticism, genuine question. Would a met reading and doing pbp have been able to see things there and say “well h5 is displaced west of 18z kinda nicely now however XXX happens negating those positive developments”  

[stormtracker]

Just now, Chris78 said:

When does the GFS fold?

6z or 12z?

12z with fresh data

[FatherNature]

Remember guys, Europe has never won a Super Bowl

[Ji]

The ull is in the same place by it was neutral on 18z and so positive on 00z

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, overcautionisbad said:

Welp gg

What does this mean?  

[stormtracker]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Not a criticism, genuine question. Would a met reading and doing pbp have been able to see things there and say “well h5 is displaced west of 18z kinda nicely now however XXX happens negating those positive developments”  

Probably.  I compare h5 first to try to see where things are going.  After that, the sfc didn't correspond in later panels.  Can't help that, but yeah maybe a met would have seen it coming

[overcautionisbad]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

When does the GFS fold?

6z or 12z?

12z while you are eating lunch. That's how life goes. Ruin your meal. Lol

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Ji said:

The ull is in the same place by it was neutral on 18z and so positive on 00z

The tilt is arguably more important than location, especially with the origin of this. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, nj2va said:

What does this mean?  

Good game

[bncho]

Sorry Randy. Looking at h5 it did looked better—you were right in that regard. Hope you can forgive me for that unmerited criticism.

[overcautionisbad]

Just now, nj2va said:

What does this mean?  

Good game

 What gamers say when a game is over or they consider it over

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

What does this mean?  

We need the 12 year olds out of here is what it means. 

[Nomz]

GFS: Good, waiting for north trend
NAM: Good
Canadian: looked good before weird surface modeling

Euro OP: West
Euro AIFS: West
Icon: West
UKL West

[wxmeddler]

Interesting

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Probably.  I compare h5 first to try to see where things are going.  After that, the sfc didn't correspond in later panels.  Can't help that, but yeah maybe a met would have seen it coming

I didn’t look at any h5 to say one way or another, just if something woulda got picked up. Seems like the biggest factor as I said in another comment is basing this off the tilt of the closed UL. Even if this originates a bit west of the prior runs, the real improvement needs to come in the orientation of things with that. 

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Probably.  I compare h5 first to try to see where things are going.  After that, the sfc didn't correspond in later panels.  Can't help that, but yeah maybe a met would have seen it coming

Please ignore the prepubescents.  

[SnowBeau]

 

“Euro is East!” - fish, probably

[Ji]

GFS: Good, waiting for north trend
NAM: Good
Canadian: looked good before weird surface modeling

Euro OP: West
Euro AIFS: West
Icon: West
UKL West

What?

[Alfoman]

Trying to figure out why the Euro ended up with that surface translation even with more west ticks at 500: 

Looks like we just end up more positively tilted for longer (you can see the difference below at hr 87) and there is slightly worse spacing with the kicker out west. This one is going to drive us crazy with small shifts like that making the difference in the end. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

Interesting

In what way? I sure would like to know why the surface results have basically looked better at 6z and 18z than they have at 0 & 12z

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

Interesting

Interesting indeed. I’m looking for the hint, and through that frame I’m having a harder time finding it. Dropping in further west and ridge is pumped a bit higher in the rockies/PNW. Heights slightest bit lower in east but shouldn’t hurt it as badly at that hour. Must show up more in the next frame or two.