Kitz Craver Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 And a well defined double low… not good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 10 minutes ago, metagraphica said: That's a perfect example of the things Messenger would notice when blasting all the hopefulls with his "Messenger Shuffles". Convective/Cyclonic nodes out east dragging the whole system east = "No snow for you!!" It's less common as error correction now that it was back when ( grhs) he was around posting about it. The convective grid-scale feedback is less error prone in the guidance than back then. These last 20 years of guidance/technology evolution have improved on that. That's shrunk the error spectrum/causality - like we removed a lot of that specific error type when the grid scaling stuff/boundary condition was improved. Now, the error is mainly related to whether the convection triggers at all.. and in what quantity - this is still error prone but in total we don't see as many late minute adjustments. I've noticed that as these storms get closer in time, there is less escape vorticy nodes; it seems to be more of a mid range taint. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said: The entire trough on the ICON didn’t swing around, stayed positive and right out to sea Same place they should toss the model. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: not that it's going to happen, but a direct hit would result in how much sn? 12-18"? 1-2’ easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, Henry's Weather said: 1-2’ easily Yeah, Good place to start, Can always adjust up if need be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 RGEM was still potent with the PV lobe, but was more suppressed up here in advance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Yeah, Good place to start, Can always adjust up if need be. Henry's psychedelic Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah, Good place to start, Can always adjust up if need be. Am I wrong? A full hit in this set-up would be feet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: Am I wrong? A full hit in this set-up would be feet Yeah I mean some of the early analogs were pretty potent. 1996, 2015, 2009. The ceiling is/was very high with this. Not sure if it still is though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said: Yeah I mean some of the early analogs were pretty potent. 1996, 2015, 2009. The ceiling is/was very high with this. Not sure if it still is though. It is, it's just an unwritten weenie rule to refrain from tossing out numbers at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 RGEM looked pretty good at 84... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 5 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Am I wrong? A full hit in this set-up would be feet No, Just being sarcastic, May want to calibrate the meter.......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Henry's psychedelic Weather. I like this title 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 You cant hate this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: No, Just being sarcastic, May want to calibrate the meter.......... Don’t get me wrong, ill take a miss… commuting is horrific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Last 5 runs of the Euro. Oldest top, new 06z bottom. to me screams trend is back and i'm back on the train. I think we go back to at least a 6-12 inches more for the Cape 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: Last 5 runs of the Euro. Oldest top, new 06z bottom. to me screams trend is back and i'm back on the train. I think we go back to at least a 6-12 inches more for the Cape Phew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Phew i'm back on the train cuzo. i think euro ai trends back west big time today and doesn't have a good handle on nor'easters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: You cant hate this. What about all the convection east? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 That is a ton of convection chasing on the 12z GFS through 72 oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said: What about all the convection east? Unfortunately, Every model has it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Phew Yes the cape homie. Hallelujahz… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 AI GFS a tick east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That is a ton of convection chasing on the 12z GFS through 72 oh my Not going to bode well this run, It looking more like the dual lows are real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Yea these small ticks back and forth at this lead time does not breed confidence we can trend it far enough NW next 3 days for a regional hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Not going to bode well this run. don't count your chickens before they shit. We might have something with development right off the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 AI GFS tick east. GFS op more potent with PV lobe, but more confluence here. Shit streak ruining the 12z runs so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 OP GFS gonna be east too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: don't count your chickens before they shit. We might have something with development right off the coast Heights are getting compressed over the NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 My gut says this is a fringe or miss. Too many moving pieces and opportunity to not come together for a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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