Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[Kitz Craver]

And a well defined double low… not good

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

 

 

That's a perfect example of the things Messenger would notice when blasting all the hopefulls with his "Messenger Shuffles".  Convective/Cyclonic nodes out east dragging the whole system east = "No snow for you!!"

It's less common as error correction now that it was back when ( grhs) he was around posting about it.  The convective grid-scale feedback is less error prone in the guidance than back then.  These last 20 years of guidance/technology evolution have improved on that. 

That's shrunk the error spectrum/causality - like we removed a lot of that specific error type when the grid scaling stuff/boundary condition was improved. 

Now, the error is mainly related to whether the convection triggers at all.. and in what quantity - this is still error prone but in total we don't see as many late minute adjustments.  I've noticed that as these storms get closer in time, there is less escape vorticy nodes; it seems to be more of a mid range taint. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

The entire trough on the ICON didn’t swing around, stayed positive and right out to sea

Same place they should toss the model.

[Henry's Weather]

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

not that it's going to happen, but a direct hit would result in how much sn? 12-18"? 

1-2’ easily

[dryslot]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

1-2’ easily

Yeah, Good place to start, Can always adjust up if need be.

[dendrite]

RGEM was still potent with the PV lobe, but was more suppressed up here in advance. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, Good place to start, Can always adjust up if need be.

Henry's psychedelic Weather.

[Henry's Weather]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, Good place to start, Can always adjust up if need be.

Am I wrong? A full hit in this set-up would be feet

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

Am I wrong? A full hit in this set-up would be feet

Yeah I mean some of the early analogs were pretty potent. 1996, 2015, 2009. The ceiling is/was very high with this. Not sure if it still is though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Yeah I mean some of the early analogs were pretty potent. 1996, 2015, 2009. The ceiling is/was very high with this. Not sure if it still is though.

It is, it's just an unwritten weenie rule to  refrain from tossing out numbers at this point.

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM looked pretty good at 84...

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Am I wrong? A full hit in this set-up would be feet

No, Just being sarcastic, May want to calibrate the meter..........

[Henry's Weather]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Henry's psychedelic Weather.

I like this title

[dryslot]

You cant hate this.

[Henry's Weather]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No, Just being sarcastic, May want to calibrate the meter..........

Don’t get me wrong, ill take a miss… commuting is horrific

[WeatherGeek2025]

Last 5 runs of the Euro. Oldest top, new 06z bottom. to me screams trend is back and i'm back on the train. I think we go back to at least a 6-12 inches more for the Cape

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

 

Last 5 runs of the Euro. Oldest top, new 06z bottom. to me screams trend is back and i'm back on the train. I think we go back to at least a 6-12 inches more for the Cape

Phew

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Phew

i'm back on the train cuzo. i think euro ai trends back west big time today and doesn't have a good handle on nor'easters 

[Kitz Craver]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You cant hate this.

What about all the convection east?

[weatherwiz]

That is a ton of convection chasing on the 12z GFS through 72 oh my

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

What about all the convection east?

Unfortunately, Every model has it.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Phew

Yes the cape homie. Hallelujahz…

[dendrite]

AI GFS a tick east

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That is a ton of convection chasing on the 12z GFS through 72 oh my

Not going to bode well this run, It looking more like the dual lows are real.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea these small ticks back and forth at this lead time does not breed confidence we can trend it far enough NW next 3 days for a regional hit. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Not going to bode well this run.

don't count your chickens before they shit.

We might have something with development right off the coast

[CoastalWx]

AI GFS tick east.

GFS op more potent with PV lobe, but more confluence here. Shit streak ruining the 12z runs so far.

[ORH_wxman]

OP GFS gonna be east too. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

don't count your chickens before they shit.

We might have something with development right off the coast

Heights are getting compressed over the NE

[NorEastermass128]

My gut says this is a fringe or miss. Too many moving pieces and opportunity to not come together for a big hit.