Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[Typhoon Tip]

                                        Anomalous upper pattern appears to finally be emerging into well-established and very stable/persistent index signal. 

This could have been the opener for the arriving February thread, however, I feel this has some statistical significance that is higher than the background climo;  it should be isolated at this time when considering these very recent ensemble trends shown below.  These are 00z cycle of the Euro/GEFs/GEPs, left to right, centered on 168 hours.   

Note, the previous cycle were quite vague if qualitatively non-existent compared to these panels. This is a sudden thrust into emergence, of a well-established and persistent multi-sourced index signal. 

 

The operation renditions of the evolution of this are little unusual, for the time being... hints there of a 'hook in latter' scenario, where the flow rotates around and any system might appear initially destined to run away out to sea... However, as the deep layer rotates in time, the surface reflection is captured ... moves due N or even NW.  This veneer of this Euro suggests something of blizzard from NYC-BOS ... 00z centered on 150 hours.

 

I haven't delved into details though and wouldn't given to this still emerging.   I feel this may be a back NW emergence ... like the Boxing Day storm in 2010, but doing so perhaps along different time scales.  

Lastly, this can be juggernaut.  It is more of a subsume model phasing type. This is not an isentropic driven ordeal.  It has ceiling potential that much higher in terms of deeper tropospheric structure.  The implications/threat spectrum are thus more than just snow totals.  This comes with an assortment of wind/tide/snow/problems to infrastructure ... the usual suspects.  Subsumers are powerful because when you have a SPV fragmentation biding time, and then as an interloping S/Stream impulse passes underneath, the cold of N and the latency of warmth from the S or directly infused.  For muse, the N/Stream pounces S- it's like 'predatory wave behavior'   If you put the 500 mb heights into loop, you can see how it comes down and seems to engulf ... giving the allusion of ingesting the S/stream. And then the new total has grown in amplitude and implication.  

 

 

 

 

[dryslot]

If this one does materialize, It has a slow crawl look to it, Someone on the EC is going to get a HECS out of this.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

If this one does materialize, It has a slow crawl look to it, Someone on the EC is going to get a HECS out of this.

lots to sort out but at least for the moment, they all look like pieces of cryo-dystopic candy 

[dryslot]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

lots to sort out but at least for the moment, they all look like pieces of cryo-dystopic candy 

It would be a slow dopamine drip..ha ha 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, I just saw the 06z Euro... primitive albeit impressive attempt at continuity. 

[mahk_webstah]

I believe you’ve been honking about this for at least a week so I’m glad you started the thread

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, I just saw the 06z Euro... primitive albeit impressive attempt at continuity. 

I think all the ingredients are there for something special, I like the low positioning at this lead on the EPS. 

[Typhoon Tip]

 

Really fundamentally flawless in this 06z operational Euro and it's D6 ... not D9...  But again, I'm more confidence established on some kind of system in this window, because as I've been pointing out for well over a week, the indexes have been firing warning shots across the bow the whole time. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

Really fundamentally flawless in this 06z operational Euro and it's D6 ... not D9...  But again, I'm more confidence established on some kind of system in this window, because as I've been pointing out for well over a week, the indexes have been firing warning shots across the bow the whole time. 

I’ve been quietly following and appreciate your analysis of this period. It looks like a really explosive setup. 

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

Really fundamentally flawless in this 06z operational Euro and it's D6 ... not D9...  But again, I'm more confidence established on some kind of system in this window, because as I've been pointing out for well over a week, the indexes have been firing warning shots across the bow the whole time. 

I made mention of this period as well as one i liked, Feb 1st-2nd time frame.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I think all the ingredients are there for something special, I like the low positioning at this lead on the EPS. 

Yes... one idiosyncrasy as we observe this thing in these early pages ... there is a preponderance of very deep members.  

That's been a thing with this for the past week's worth of modeling... the variance has been very all or nothing. I find that particular behavior interesting.  Either the model in question has nothing ... or something sub-980 bombing.   That's red flag as to potential - which we already know is there... but the member variance is typically narrower and closer to a mean that is more middling. 

Sub 980s are spread NW    

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, dryslot said:

I made mention of this period as well as one i liked, Feb 1st-2nd time frame as well.

In fact, you favored it over this storm. Let’s hope you were right!

[dryslot]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

In fact, you favored it over this storm. Let’s hope you were right!

Yes, Being as far out as it was, I felt better about it.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yes... one idiosyncrasy as we observe this thing in these early pages ... there is a preponderance of very deep members.  

That's been a thing with this for the past week's worth of modeling... the variance has been very all or nothing. I find that particular behavior interesting.  Either the model in question has nothing ... or something sub-980 bombing.   That's red flag as to potential - which we already know is there... but the member variance is typically narrower and closer to a mean that is more middling. 

Sub 980s are spread NW    

Typically in the past, At this lead, You have a buckshot look but this one seems to have better clustering and many members west of the mean with some sub 980mb members.

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

In fact, you favored it over this storm. Let’s hope you were right!

Hard to compare?  

I realize you're making conjecture and it's all good and fair.  But this thing ending today, and that thing in 6 days are apples and oranges in the atmospheric setting and governing kinematics.  

So favoring has to just be whether it exists or not ... 

I admittedly lapsed on this most recent one.  I discussed this in the storm thread ...  But this one appears to also be an index signal if we ( or I - ) had bothered to look.  About 10 days ago there was a very coherent MJO phase 6 wave space in the RMM.   This has a strong correlation to warmer than normal across the eastern 2/3rd of the middle continent.  This timed with typical MJO lag for this same period as the storm... so what gives? Well, the intense -EPO cold load that set up right on top of it. It's really a clash of two disparate implications... the STJ that came across the Baja and went over Texas, was the MJO wave termination mechanics, then encountering a -3 SD arctic invasion.  Amazing really...  It was all MJO warm/moisture going over top an arctic dome.  There really was only weak low pressure...

[Snowcrazed71]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yes... one idiosyncrasy as we observe this thing in these early pages ... there is a preponderance of very deep members.  

That's been a thing with this for the past week's worth of modeling... the variance has been very all or nothing. I find that particular behavior interesting.  Either the model in question has nothing ... or something sub-980 bombing.   That's red flag as to potential - which we already know is there... but the member variance is typically narrower and closer to a mean that is more middling. 

Sub 980s are spread NW    

Tip...

I've come to really appreciate your knowledge and presentation when you delve into this upcoming pattern. It takes a lot to look at all look at all the pieces of the puzzle and try to put them together. It's going to be an exciting week leading up to next weekend and beyond. Thank you again for starting this thread!

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hard to compare?  

I realize you're making conjecture and it's all good and fair.  But this thing ending today, and that thing in 6 days are apples and oranges in the atmospheric setting and governing kinematics.  

So favoring has to just be whether it exists or not ... 

I admittedly lapsed on this one most recent one.  I discussed this in the storm thread ...  But this one appears to also be an index signal if we ( or I - ) had bothered to look.  About 10 days ago there was a very coherent MJO phase 6 wave space in the RMM.   This has a strong correlation to warmer than normal across the eastern 2/3rd of the middle continent.  This timed with typical MJO lag for this same period as the storm... so what gives? Well, the intense -EPO cold load that set up right on top of it. It's really a clash of two disparate implications... the STJ the cross the Baja and went through Texas, was the MJO wave termination mechanics, then encountering a -3 SD arctic invasion.  Amazing really...  It was all MJO warm/moisture going over top an arctic dome.  There really was only weak low pressure...

Yeah, Nobody was going to be sniffing ozone on today's, But this next one........

[SouthCoastMA]

A little too tucky for me verbatim. But nice look overall, and something big to track again. Can't complain

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Tip...

I've come to really appreciate your knowledge and presentation when you delve into this upcoming pattern. It takes a lot to look at all look at all the pieces of the puzzle and try to put them together. It's going to be an exciting week leading up to next weekend and beyond. Thank you again for starting this thread!

Ha Ha Ha  my company has a      ...wait for it!     SNOW DAY.            

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, Nobody was going to be sniffing ozone on today's, But this next one........

Hopefully not Islip, and rather the seagulls on https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44008

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Hopefully not Islip, and rather the seagulls on https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44008

That's always a possibility with these, That's why for here anyways, I prefer Miller B's because they tend to get going further north around our latitude

[Damage In Tolland]

Isn’t this more Feb 2-3?

[Layman]

I prefer a little more substance with the first post in these threads, but this'll do...

[Typhoon Tip]

Okay so ... some key synoptic facets.

1  the western end of the modulating SPV

2 the interloping S/Stream injecting underneath

3 the heights over the SW Atl Basin are psuedo relaxed; evidenced by larger gap in isohypses, with balanced geostrophic wind only 30 kts, and heights lower the 582 or Miami ( as proxy).  

What I'm not showing in this image is the western ridge/+PNA response, because it is yet to happen.  In two more days after this 81 hour Euro solution from 06z, the western ridge surges polarward.. right along a very complementary longitude.  This helps to trigger the N/stream's descent in latitude through the lakes - that western fragmentation of the SPV.   As this happen.. the 3 is not as shearing/destructively interfering as it would be if the heights were higher and the balanced geos. wind was strong...such that the whole structure is allowed to conserve more of it's amplitude as the phasing commences...

sex happens... and it all gives birth to a storm.   

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Isn’t this more Feb 2-3?

Yeah there's been some solutions spitting out storms at different dates between the 28th and the 3rd ... Really, the whole period is/was susceptible. However, the recent runs are honing the 1st *(see the dates on the charts being provided).   

It all would have been the same, really.   Uuuusally, though, it's the front side, between the rising inflection and max of the +PNA is when things happen.    Then if you are lucky ... it pulses with periodicity such that you get mainenance storms after the fact - but let's not get greedy just yet. haha.  The 1st is better situated relative to that and the timing et al. 

 

[Kitz Craver]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

Really fundamentally flawless in this 06z operational Euro and it's D6 ... not D9...  But again, I'm more confidence established on some kind of system in this window, because as I've been pointing out for well over a week, the indexes have been firing warning shots across the bow the whole time. 

You have been on this  for a longgggg time. Multiple weeks I believe. Impressive recognition for sure

[Typhoon Tip]

Man... haha that 06z ICON was going to be among other greats and GOATs if that were allowed to move out beyond 120 hours. 

That's a Miller A that gets captured by an N/Stream cutting off trough with a mid and u/a cold air anomally that's that like -5 SD.   Jesus Christ!   

That's like a matter coming into contact with anti-matter. 

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/2015806420986241286?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[MJO812]

Icon

[yoda]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Man... haha that 06z ICON was going to be among other greats and GOATs if that were allowed to move out beyond 120 hours. 

That's a Miller A that gets captured by an N/Stream cutting off trough with a mid and u/a cold air anomally that's that like -5 SD.   Jesus Christ!   

That's like a matter coming into contact with anti-matter. 

Look at 12z lol