The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[NorthHillsWx]

If this ain’t a damn sign, got sun shining through the clouds now 

[ncstatered21]

I got my expectations up about two hours ago because it appeared the dry slot was shrinking...then BOOM...back even stronger. Precip stalled just west of us...sigh

I’m with you there. That line is moving straight north right on the western edge of Wake Co.


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[lilj4425]

Even Charleston is seeing snow. Poor Raleigh can’t catch a break. 

[Isopycnic]

Oh my!

[SouthWake33]

What is your point? Getting f'd yet again

There’s a cliff diving thread for a reason.


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[eyewall]

The returns almost looked like they stalled in their eastward progress 

[Aleksey]

My poor thread.  

Man your thread was about bullseye for me in NE GA. Our biggest snow since 2011 and multiple deformation bands right over MBY. I wish I could post videos in here because holy crap you would have thought it was up in Michigan or that area. This storm just sat over NE GA and bombed us. The western trend really helped us out all week and this was a true NE GA snowstorm!


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[PackGrad05]

For what it's worth, the most recent HRRR did prolong the end of the event another 1-3 hours for Wake...  So if we begin by 7PM, we could have over 6 hours of precipitation.

[kvegas-wx]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If this ain’t a damn sign, got sun shining through the clouds now 

Thats nuts.  I'm not trying be mean here, just observing.  But it is insane that over 50 miles we can observe sun and no accums at your location and near white conditions and 7" of snow in Winston.  Eyewall's drive back from GSO earlier must have been unbelievable.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

The returns almost looked like they stalled in their eastward progress 

It’s hitting subsidence from coastal. Coastal is cooking now. It isn’t back building. We’re cooked, blanked 

[StantonParkHoya]

Someone down east is going to get 15+


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[StantonParkHoya]

It’s hitting subsidence from coastal. Coastal is cooking now. It isn’t back building. We’re cooked, blanked 

May be time to open the bottle


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[lilj4425]

2 minutes ago, Aleksey said:

Man your thread was about bullseye for me in NE GA. Our biggest snow since 2011 and multiple deformation bands right over MBY. I wish I could post videos in here because holy crap you would have thought it was up in Michigan or that area. This storm just sat over NE GA and bombed us. The western trend really helped us out all week and this was a true NE GA snowstorm!


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Awesome. How much did you get? 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

Someone down east is going to get 15+


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Just FaceTimed with friend in Morehead city, it is near blizzard there 

[ncstatered21]

For what it's worth, the most recent HRRR did prolong the end of the event another 1-3 hours for Wake...  So if we begin by 7PM, we could have over 6 hours of precipitation.

Yeah this looked much more promising than it did yesterday. Drops at least 2.5”. But I think all the Raleigh folks in here are surely already hurt cause this was literally a knife’s edge.


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[27596WXNUT]

From the Fish for you guys in the triangle.  
 

Greg Fishel post:

Winter Storm Update 3:30pm Sat Jan 31
Sponsored by Blanton’s Air, Plumbing & Electric

The following is an example of what you will get if you subscribe to my Patreon channel. It's much more in depth and I create videos, complete with graphics and statistics Monday through Friday, and over the weekend if conditions warrant. To check it out, go to https://patreon.com/fishweather.

Now, here is what I just posted on my Patreon channel: 

I am not shocked about the lack of snow so far in the Triangle. I believe I stated several times that to me, the most favorable time for heavy hitting was late Saturday afternoon into the wee hours of Sunday morning. Now, if it looks like this at 9pm tonight, I'll be genuinely concerned!

As the storm offshore begins to rapidly intensify, the flow surrounding it will strengthen as well, and we will get into what we call a pattern of strong warm advection. Now snow lovers, don't fret. in this case "warm" is a relative term! But the process of warm advection is a contributor to upward motion and I expect that to maximize here in the coming hours. Thus, I am not giving up on my 4-7" prediction. And remember, 4-7 means 4 to 7, not 7!

Now I want to be brutally honest with you because I saw someone giving me credit I didn't entirely deserve. It is true that midweek, I called into question the outrageous snow totals the American model was spitting out, as much as 18" at one point. So I was right about that. But I did backtrack slightly when I conceded that 4-7" of snow was possible, especially with the unusually high solid to liquid ratios. So if we get less than 4", I will have to confess that I went too high. There are many models out there right now telling me I'm wrong. Time will tell. As I said earlier, I'm looking at processes, not a computer program spitting out numbers. I didn't need to suffer through 4 years of calculus at Penn State to read numbers to people. I just wish all the clickbaiters out there that showed the outrageous snow totals earlier in the week would have the guts to admit they overdid it. Not holding my breath on that one.

So that's really about it. It's a wait and see game from now until 1-2am Sunday morning. I'm doing the best I can with what I know and my over 46 years of experience. I'm not perfect but I promise you if I'm wrong, it won't be due to lack of effort.

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, 27596WXNUT said:

From the Fish for you guys in the triangle.  
 

Greg Fishel post:

Winter Storm Update 3:30pm Sat Jan 31
Sponsored by Blanton’s Air, Plumbing & Electric

The following is an example of what you will get if you subscribe to my Patreon channel. It's much more in depth and I create videos, complete with graphics and statistics Monday through Friday, and over the weekend if conditions warrant. To check it out, go to https://patreon.com/fishweather.

Now, here is what I just posted on my Patreon channel: 

I am not shocked about the lack of snow so far in the Triangle. I believe I stated several times that to me, the most favorable time for heavy hitting was late Saturday afternoon into the wee hours of Sunday morning. Now, if it looks like this at 9pm tonight, I'll be genuinely concerned!

As the storm offshore begins to rapidly intensify, the flow surrounding it will strengthen as well, and we will get into what we call a pattern of strong warm advection. Now snow lovers, don't fret. in this case "warm" is a relative term! But the process of warm advection is a contributor to upward motion and I expect that to maximize here in the coming hours. Thus, I am not giving up on my 4-7" prediction. And remember, 4-7 means 4 to 7, not 7!

Now I want to be brutally honest with you because I saw someone giving me credit I didn't entirely deserve. It is true that midweek, I called into question the outrageous snow totals the American model was spitting out, as much as 18" at one point. So I was right about that. But I did backtrack slightly when I conceded that 4-7" of snow was possible, especially with the unusually high solid to liquid ratios. So if we get less than 4", I will have to confess that I went too high. There are many models out there right now telling me I'm wrong. Time will tell. As I said earlier, I'm looking at processes, not a computer program spitting out numbers. I didn't need to suffer through 4 years of calculus at Penn State to read numbers to people. I just wish all the clickbaiters out there that showed the outrageous snow totals earlier in the week would have the guts to admit they overdid it. Not holding my breath on that one.

So that's really about it. It's a wait and see game from now until 1-2am Sunday morning. I'm doing the best I can with what I know and my over 46 years of experience. I'm not perfect but I promise you if I'm wrong, it won't be due to lack of effort.

The Fish is giving up. That’s how I read this 

[Aleksey]

Awesome. How much did you get? 

Officially 4.2” in Winder. It’s done now, we had 3 different times where snow rates were around 1” per hour. It is 5° wind chill right now and looks like you’re up in the Midwest, specifically Michigan lol man I wish I could send videos in here!


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[suzook]

Just now, Aleksey said:

Officially 4.2” in Winder. It’s done now, we had 3 different times where snow rates were around 1” per hour. It is 5° wind chill right now and looks like you’re up in the Midwest, specifically Michigan lol man I wish I could send videos in here!


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Historic storm! Glad you cashed in. Just to your west barely got flurries. Amazing storm. Question is, how long will you be snowed in?

[Snowncanes]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The Fish is giving up. That’s how I read this 

Please take this to the cliff diving thread. It’s been like 30 posts. He literally says in the post his reasoning we will still see snow, and when, and y’all aren’t seeing it fall outside right this minute so you’re jumping off the cliff 

[Blacksburg Coach]

Still snowing in Blacksburg, looks like it's starting to fill in again. Temps falling.

[IDKMBFFJ]

Garner, NC. Got a light dusting around 9am and it's already gone. Nothing else since. What happened to the 6-10"? 

 

Edit: Thanks wral

[Aleksey]

Historic storm! Glad you cashed in. Just to your west barely got flurries. Amazing storm. Question is, how long will you be snowed in?

Absolutely historic by our means haha my sister lives 30 miles west of me and they only got a light dusting. Extremely sharp cutoffs. We ended up with more than Athens, and they were supposed to get more than us. Roads actually aren’t bad because the wind was super heavy it’s been blowing around all afternoon. Mostly wet roads but not really snow covered. Tomorrow we get up to 34°, not much to melt, but by Tuesday it should be all gone. One for the ages down here and one I’ll remember forever!


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[ncstatered21]

The Fish is giving up. That’s how I read this 

Giving up? You read it that way? Hmm. I mean with the orientation changing as the low moves away and higher snow ratios…there’s a chance.

I didn’t read it as him giving up.


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[Blacksburg Coach]

2 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

Please take this to the cliff diving thread. It’s been like 30 posts. He literally says in the post his reasoning we will still see snow, and when, and y’all aren’t seeing it fall outside right this minute so you’re jumping off the cliff 

I tried to prep them a couple days ago, the mid range just wasn't looking good for someone in that area. 

[Snowncanes]

Just now, Blacksburg Coach said:

I tried to prep them a couple days ago, the mid range just wasn't looking good for someone in that area. 

Im in the area too. Snowed for about 10 minutes and that’s all I’ve seen. It sucks, especially seeing everyone else in the state with 5”+. But this thread isn’t for complaining for 3 pages, it’s for the info of the storm. Which btw our ULL went neutral and will probably go negative in the next hour and deepen the surface low. Theres still time. 

[Blacksburg Coach]

1 minute ago, Snowncanes said:

Im in the area too. Snowed for about 10 minutes and that’s all I’ve seen. It sucks, especially seeing everyone else in the state with 5”+. But this thread isn’t for complaining for 3 pages, it’s for the info of the storm. Which btw our ULL went neutral and will probably go negative in the next hour and deepen the surface low. Theres still time. 

I'm pulling for you guys, even up here in the mountains I've had the energy leap frog us and it's so disappointing.

[27596WXNUT]

Just now, Snowncanes said:

Im in the area too. Snowed for about 10 minutes and that’s all I’ve seen. It sucks, especially seeing everyone else in the state with 5”+. But this thread isn’t for complaining for 3 pages, it’s for the info of the storm. Which btw our ULL went neutral and will probably go negative in the next hour and deepen the surface low. Theres still time. 

I was  encouraged my Fish’s post.   He’s been around this area for years.  Longer than pretty much any other met.   And now he can shoot straight since the WRAL chains are off. 
 

I think we could pick a few inches really quick this evening and tonight but we will see.   

[Blacksburg Coach]

[Snowncanes]

2 minutes ago, 27596WXNUT said:

I was  encouraged my Fish’s post.   He’s been around this area for years.  Longer than pretty much any other met.   And now he can shoot straight since the WRAL chains are off. 
 

I think we could pick a few inches really quick this evening and tonight but we will see.   

I agree, everywhere has been getting 1/2”-1” rates all day. Once that builds in here all we need is 3-6 hours of snow to get 3” out of it. Ratios are super high, and it will accumulate quickly with the sun down and temps in the teens. Patience is key. I know it sucks right now