The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[USCG RS]

6 minutes ago, PeeDeeWx said:

Can you dumb this down for me? Are you basically saying that the dry air shouldn’t be as egregious because it’s so cold the snow will form below it?? Thanks!

Snow growth regions, especially in the south, tend to be at or just below the 500mb (h5) level. However, the cold down here is very anomalous, as such, the best snow growth region will be shunted to the 700mb (h7) level for this storm. 

So for this storm when a forecaster is looking at h5 and sees very low relative humidity (RH), they are seeing low moisture and thus low snow growth potential. However, h7 is full of RH and in this case, this is where we should be looking for snow growth (commonly known as DGZ - Dendrite Growth Zone). As such, while h5 might look like a dry slot or poor snow growth, this forecast should rely on h7 which looks great. 

[CaryWx]

24 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

Engaging full weenie mode

Updated RAH map overlays (as of 12:57 pm) appear to have gotten a bump. My location jumped from 2-4" x2 Saturday day/night to this:

Tonight

Snow likely, mainly after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 17. Wind chill values as low as 10. Northeast wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Saturday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 21. Wind chill values as low as 5. North wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 14. Wind chill values as low as zero. North wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

 

Yep those are increases from the 2"-4"s they had earlier

[ncstatered21]

26 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

Engaging full weenie mode

Updated RAH map overlays (as of 12:57 pm) appear to have gotten a bump. My location jumped from 2-4" x2 Saturday day/night to this:

Tonight

Snow likely, mainly after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 17. Wind chill values as low as 10. Northeast wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Saturday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 21. Wind chill values as low as 5. North wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 14. Wind chill values as low as zero. North wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

 

Yeah I checked last night and I think this is up a few inches. I think it is more starting to line up with RAH maps earlier for total snow depth. 

Secondly...I have been in North Carolina a long time...but I'm not sure where "Holly Swings, NC" is...LOL

[Louise]

9 minutes ago, Louise said:

Yes, watched him. Seems he thinking our area, just outside west of Spex, is dry slotted for a lot of this event. Hope he’s wrong.

Oops that’s Apex, not Spex. Don’t think I like Brad P., jk

[CaryWx]

5 minutes ago, ncstatered21 said:

Yeah I checked last night and I think this is up a few inches. I think it is more starting to line up with RAH maps earlier for total snow depth. 

Secondly...I have been in North Carolina a long time...but I'm not sure where "Holly Swings, NC" is...LOL

It's Holly Sprigs!

[eyewall]

NWS also upped Raleigh by a couple of inches in the point and click too. The map is still from early this morning.

[PeeDeeWx]

11 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Snow growth regions, especially in the south, tend to be at or just below the 500mb (h5) level. However, the cold down here is very anomalous, as such, the best snow growth region will be shunted to the 700mb (h7) level for this storm. 

So for this storm when a forecaster is looking at h5 and sees very low relative humidity (RH), they are seeing low moisture and thus low snow growth potential. However, h7 is full of RH and in this case, this is where we should be looking for snow growth (commonly known as DGZ - Dendrite Growth Zone). As such, while h5 might look like a dry slot or poor snow growth, this forecast should rely on h7 which looks great. 

Great stuff. Seems the Mets would know this, right??

[eyewall]

3 minutes ago, PeeDeeWx said:

Great stuff. Seems the Mets would know this, right??

It makes meteorological sense but I have no idea what other mets are thinking. I mean if you are saturated enough in the DGZ no matter the height of it you can get snow. DGZ temps are typically between -12C and -18C. 

[Regan]

I guess not… or Brad is just really dug in. He’s not dumb though. Ugh. 
 

Allan H just said he’s editing his map. Oh no. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

18 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Snow growth regions, especially in the south, tend to be at or just below the 500mb (h5) level. However, the cold down here is very anomalous, as such, the best snow growth region will be shunted to the 700mb (h7) level for this storm. 

So for this storm when a forecaster is looking at h5 and sees very low relative humidity (RH), they are seeing low moisture and thus low snow growth potential. However, h7 is full of RH and in this case, this is where we should be looking for snow growth (commonly known as DGZ - Dendrite Growth Zone). As such, while h5 might look like a dry slot or poor snow growth, this forecast should rely on h7 which looks great. 

This is golden education. Thank you 

[NorthHillsWx]

Will be interesting to see RAH afternoon update. They introduced “heavy snow” and upped totals for most of central NC, as noted here 

[SEwakenosnowforu]

4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It makes meteorological sense but I have no idea what other mets are thinking. I mean if you are saturated enough in the DGZ no matter the height of it you can get snow. DGZ temps are typically between -12C and -18C. 

Yes, and i trust the guys at the NWS more than tv mets. NWS does not seem to be buying it at least it seems

 

I think TV Mets are saying this as a way out if it does bust! lol

[Tony Sisk]

Winter Storm Warnings now in the entire state of SC.  So that means both SC and NC are complete Winter Storm Warnings. That is super cool!

[Regan]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Will be interesting to see RAH afternoon update. They introduced “heavy snow” and upped totals for most of central NC, as noted here 

Did they? I thought their maps were reduced from yesterday. Point me in the right direction in case I’m missing something. 

[Blue Ridge]

21 minutes ago, ncstatered21 said:

Yeah I checked last night and I think this is up a few inches. I think it is more starting to line up with RAH maps earlier for total snow depth. 

Secondly...I have been in North Carolina a long time...but I'm not sure where "Holly Swings, NC" is...LOL

As noted, it’s the venerable Holly Springs! Running joke about the town’s reputation for adult activity. Not sure it’s deserved outside of an establishment or two downtown, but then again it’s probably equally as deserving as any suburb in the US

[stormwatcherJ]

Okay help me decide the debate between staying in Hillsborough or heading to the coast for this weekend...who has the better shot? And "the coast" for me would likely be Carteret County. 

[ncstatered21]

Just now, Blue Ridge said:

As noted, it’s the venerable Holly Springs! Running joke about the town’s reputation for adult activity. Not sure it’s deserved outside of an establishment or two downtown, but then again it’s probably equally as deserving as any suburb in the US

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA...well I am outside the inside joke because I didn't know this was a reputation...I also don't fall under that group. Hilarious! 

Does anyone have Kuchera for the NWS Blend? I'm curious how much the average between all the models is overcoming the potential dry area...and assuming...it is overcoming it a good amount. 

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, Regan said:

Did they? I thought their maps were reduced from yesterday. Point me in the right direction in case I’m missing something. 

Check your point click 

[Snowncanes]

1 minute ago, stormwatcherJ said:

Okay help me decide the debate between staying in Hillsborough or heading to the coast for this weekend...who has the better shot? And "the coast" for me would likely be Carteret County. 

The coast almost definitely

[Regan]

I am near RDU and I'm seeing:

1in or less tonight 

New accum 3-5 saturday

New accum 3-5 Saturday night 

[Aleksey]

NWS is calling for 3-4” for MBY and 4-6” 22 east of me. Western trend continues on. Also expecting to receive a band of heavier snow at some point late morning. Game on!


.

[USCG RS]

Just now, Regan said:

I am near RDU and I'm seeing:

1in or less tonight 

additional 3-5 saturday

additiinal 3-5 Saturday night 

I think a general 6-12 for you is not a bad forecast rn. 

[Regan]

4 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

I think a general 6-12 for you is not a bad forecast rn. 

I’ll take it, but the mets keep wiggling that rug despite models. Waiting on Allan Huffman update since he said he was editing now. 
 

if I look at this morning’s slides it’s got 6-8 over Wake 

[PackGrad05]

WRAL updated their map.

[JSB99]

3 minutes ago, Aleksey said:

NWS is calling for 3-4” for MBY and 4-6” 22 east of me. Western trend continues on. Also expecting to receive a band of heavier snow at some point late morning. Game on!


.

The trend has definitely been our friend for NE Georgia. My point and click in Gainesville now shows 3-7" for tomorrow!

[wakegrrl]

5 minutes ago, Regan said:

I am near RDU and I'm seeing:

1in or less tonight 

New accum 3-5 saturday

New accum 3-5 Saturday night 

That's what they're showing for Apex as well. Makes sense to me.

[Regan]

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

WRAL updated their map.

Yeah they removed that higher area to the west. 

[USCG RS]

6 minutes ago, Regan said:

I’ll take it, but the mets keep wiggling that rug despite models. Waiting on Allan Huffman update since he said he was editing now. 

Two things with this storm 

1) Where and exactly how the ULL progresses will result in large changes in sensible weather and thus forecasts 

2) Banding will be a large portion of this storm

Both of these are changes that can be just a few miles which is nearly impossible to predict. 

That withstanding, closer to the coast has more wiggle room here as the storm is exploding off the coast. Likewise, forum wide this looks like a good hit as the ULL is favorable for most of the area... It would appear. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Whatever happened to meteorology at the venerable WBTV? No one ever talks about their meteorologists anymore 

[CaryWx]

26 minutes ago, Regan said:

I guess not… or Brad is just really dug in. He’s not dumb though. Ugh. 
 

Allan H just said he’s editing his map. Oh no. 

Think AH is going to broaden the 'A' section further northwest possibly.