ORFDawg2013 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 5 minutes ago, CaryWx said: It can stop now for real! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Latest GFS model run is a nothingburger. Out to sea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebaney Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Is there any scientific explanation why Wake County is in the screw zone more often than not? I am in eastern Wake and I seem to consistently have less than others. I know we joke about it but curious if there is a meteorological reason or just irony/coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowncanes Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, Stebaney said: Is there any scientific explanation why Wake County is in the screw zone more often than not? I am in eastern Wake and I seem to consistently have less than others. I know we joke about it but curious if there is a meteorological reason or just irony/coincidence. This storm is actually a good example of it. If we don’t get the snow from the ULL sometimes the surface low can form too far east for us to get meaningful snow from that. Kinda in that no man’s zone. Also at the edge of the typical cad wedge so not as cold as the triad and foothills in that scenario. And not far enough east for cold air to catch up to moisture coming over the mountains. Lots of ways to fail here lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 HRRR looks good coastal winding up at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 HRRR 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 7 minutes ago, Stebaney said: Is there any scientific explanation why Wake County is in the screw zone more often than not? I am in eastern Wake and I seem to consistently have less than others. I know we joke about it but curious if there is a meteorological reason or just irony/coincidence. simplest answer..Classic definition of being "in the middle" Not quite west or north enough enough to benefit from cooler temps, not quite east or south enough to be too warm for most winter storms. so we get everything possible that falls between these two extremes..which tends to be just meh. average. most times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 7 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: Latest GFS model run is a nothingburger. Out to sea. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 HRRR is a near flush hit run for NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Doom and gloom on this board over a possible epic storm. You guys like snow, right? We are chasing snow in the south. Isn't the reason that we track because of the possibility of a super rare event, and that's exciting? Stop chasing every model run, they are all wrong. That is what makes this a fun hobby, that they all might be wrong. Your gf didn't dump you if the gfs comes in south. Let's keep it in perspective. I hope y'all score! No, I am not that new here 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: HRRR is a near flush run for NC will hug it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Still think it will be less. Very dry air here. Gonna take a bit to actually get precip on the ground. I think the models are overestimating the amount of precip that actually makes it to the ground, especially in the metro ATL area.I agree with the Atlanta and metro area, but not out towards winded. 0.3” QPF with 15:1 to 20:1 ratios. Athens will most definitely be getting hit hard with 3-6”. West of Barrow county is where QPF will be super low and around 0.1”. Athens looks to be at 0.3”-0.4” of QPF which would easily lay down 3-6”. The cutoff is west of Barrow into mid Gwinnett. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowncanes Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Pretty sizable change at 500 at 12 hours. Yeah thats a big change for 12hr… wonder how it changes downstream. Must’ve had some recon ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 45 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said: This truly might be the new king if it verifies. It’s been the most consistent of any model. I might actually agree with this. I haven't really seen it oscillate at all, with regards to QPF location. Just up/down with amounts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, Snowncanes said: Yeah thats a big change for 12hr… wonder how it changes downstream. Must’ve had some recon ingested. The block is even stronger in the NE so its essentially slowing the trough. This will be interesting to watch its definitely different at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowncanes Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, Ravens94 said: The block is even stronger in the NE so its essentially slowing the trough. This will be interesting to watch its definitely different at 500 Speculation, but could let the southern energy round the bottom of the trough and beat the cutoff. Would help pull the low in closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Funny seeing the cliff diving for those not getting 10”. I’m 61 and followed winter weather since 1976. The only 10” storms I remember in the upstate were the PD 1 1979, March 1983, and January 1988. Point being, it’s a rare thing to get 10” of snow in the SE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, Snowncanes said: Speculation, but could let the southern energy round the bottom of the trough and beat the cutoff. Would help pull the low in closer I agree should result in a more negative tilt since its held back/west we will see! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Coastal already forming better at 30. Everything offshore is south with the stronger confluence in the NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 6 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: Funny seeing the cliff diving for those not getting 10”. I’m 61 and followed winter weather since 1976. The only 10” storms I remember in the upstate were the PD 1 1979, March 1983, and January 1988. Point being, it’s a rare thing to get 10” of snow in the SE. 62 and right there with you. We may pull for opposing teams, but we could be friends!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Coastal already forming better at 30. Everything offshore is south with the stronger confluence in the NE Heavy banding along the NC coastal plain at 33 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 ULL is lagging this should be a bomb for ENC Ignore the blotchy radar its still suffering from CF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: ULL is lagging this should be a bomb for ENC She’s winding up at 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYweatherguy Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 NAM is a little west of the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Man ENC and the coast is going to get buried this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, NYweatherguy said: NAM is a little west of the 18z run. That means more snow in Jorja? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Snow really expanded in Ga at 42. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYweatherguy Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, neatlburbwthrguy said: That means more snow in Jorja? Yes, expands pretty far to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Early changes result in big implications downstream 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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