The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[chris624wx]

5 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

It can stop now

for real!

[Coach McGuirk]

Latest GFS model run is a nothingburger.  Out to sea.

[Stebaney]

Is there any scientific explanation why Wake County is in the screw zone more often than not? I am in eastern Wake and I seem to consistently have less than others. I know we joke about it but curious if there is a meteorological reason or just irony/coincidence. 

[Snowncanes]

Just now, Stebaney said:

Is there any scientific explanation why Wake County is in the screw zone more often than not? I am in eastern Wake and I seem to consistently have less than others. I know we joke about it but curious if there is a meteorological reason or just irony/coincidence. 

This storm is actually a good example of it. If we don’t get the snow from the ULL sometimes the surface low can form too far east for us to get meaningful snow from that. Kinda in that no man’s zone. Also at the edge of the typical cad wedge so not as cold as the triad and foothills in that scenario. And not far enough east for cold air to catch up to moisture coming over the mountains. Lots of ways to fail here lol

[Ravens94]

HRRR looks good coastal winding up at the end of the run. 

[wncsnow]

HRRR 

[wxdawg10]

7 minutes ago, Stebaney said:

Is there any scientific explanation why Wake County is in the screw zone more often than not? I am in eastern Wake and I seem to consistently have less than others. I know we joke about it but curious if there is a meteorological reason or just irony/coincidence. 

simplest answer..Classic definition of being "in the middle"

Not quite west or north enough enough to benefit from cooler temps, not quite east or south enough to be too warm for most winter storms.  so we get everything possible that falls between these two extremes..which tends to be just meh. average. most times

[Grayman]

7 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Latest GFS model run is a nothingburger.  Out to sea.

Huh?

[NorthHillsWx]

HRRR is a near flush hit run for NC

[digital snow]

Doom and gloom on this board over a possible epic storm. You guys like snow, right? We are chasing snow in the south. Isn't the reason that we track because of the possibility of a super rare event, and that's exciting? Stop chasing every model run, they are all wrong. That is what makes this a fun hobby, that they all might be wrong. Your gf didn't dump you if the gfs comes in south. Let's keep it in perspective. I hope y'all score!

No, I am not that new here

[wxdawg10]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

HRRR is a near flush run for NC

will hug it.

[Aleksey]

Still think it will be less. Very dry air here. Gonna take a bit to actually get precip on the ground. I think the models are overestimating the amount of precip that actually makes it to the ground, especially in the metro ATL area.

I agree with the Atlanta and metro area, but not out towards winded. 0.3” QPF with 15:1 to 20:1 ratios. Athens will most definitely be getting hit hard with 3-6”. West of Barrow county is where QPF will be super low and around 0.1”. Athens looks to be at 0.3”-0.4” of QPF which would easily lay down 3-6”. The cutoff is west of Barrow into mid Gwinnett.


.

[Snowncanes]

2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

Pretty sizable change at 500 at 12 hours. 

Yeah thats a big change for 12hr… wonder how it changes downstream. Must’ve had some recon ingested. 

[HKY_WX]

45 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

This truly might be the new king if it verifies. It’s been the most consistent of any model.

I might actually agree with this. I haven't really seen it oscillate at all, with regards to QPF location. Just up/down with amounts. 

[Ravens94]

Just now, Snowncanes said:

Yeah thats a big change for 12hr… wonder how it changes downstream. Must’ve had some recon ingested. 

The block is even stronger in the NE so its essentially slowing the trough. This will be interesting to watch its definitely different at 500 

[Snowncanes]

Just now, Ravens94 said:

The block is even stronger in the NE so its essentially slowing the trough. This will be interesting to watch its definitely different at 500 

Speculation, but could let the southern energy round the bottom of the trough and beat the cutoff. Would help pull the low in closer 

[Upstate Tiger]

Funny seeing the cliff diving for those not getting 10”.  I’m 61 and followed winter weather since 1976.  The only 10” storms I remember in the upstate were the PD 1 1979, March 1983, and January 1988.  Point being, it’s a rare thing to get 10” of snow in the SE.  

[Ravens94]

Just now, Snowncanes said:

Speculation, but could let the southern energy round the bottom of the trough and beat the cutoff. Would help pull the low in closer 

I agree should result in a more negative tilt since its held back/west we will see!

[Ravens94]

[Ravens94]

Coastal already forming better at 30. Everything offshore is south with the stronger confluence in the NE

[Tony Sisk]

6 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Funny seeing the cliff diving for those not getting 10”.  I’m 61 and followed winter weather since 1976.  The only 10” storms I remember in the upstate were the PD 1 1979, March 1983, and January 1988.  Point being, it’s a rare thing to get 10” of snow in the SE.  

62 and right there with you. We may pull for opposing teams, but we could be friends!!!

[Upstate Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

Coastal already forming better at 30. Everything offshore is south with the stronger confluence in the NE

Heavy banding along the NC coastal plain at 33

[Ravens94]

ULL is lagging this should be a bomb for ENC

Ignore the blotchy radar its still suffering from CF.

[Upstate Tiger]

1 minute ago, Ravens94 said:

ULL is lagging this should be a bomb for ENC

She’s winding up at 39

[NYweatherguy]

NAM is a little west of the 18z run.

[Ravens94]

Man ENC and the coast is going to get buried this run

[neatlburbwthrguy]

Just now, NYweatherguy said:

NAM is a little west of the 18z run.

That means more snow in Jorja?

[Upstate Tiger]

Snow really expanded in Ga at 42. 

[NYweatherguy]

Just now, neatlburbwthrguy said:

That means more snow in Jorja?

Yes, expands pretty far to the west. 

[Ravens94]

Early changes result in big implications downstream