The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[BornAgain13]

AI GFS is another Big Hit. Slight tick north

[Tony Sisk]

Just now, USCG RS said:

It's the chance of precip. 70% chance of heavy snow. 

Thanks!!

[Ravens94]

More confluence this run 

[Snowncanes]

1 minute ago, Snowncanes said:

AiGFS has the low closing off further north like the RGEM. Dives it down through extreme NE Alabama. Neutral to slightly negative tilt too. Looks like a great run 

Regular GFS closes it off in Illinois at hr 66. Looks to be fairly similar if not slightly east of AI. But still a great look

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, Snowncanes said:

AiGFS has the low closing off further north like the RGEM. Dives it down through extreme NE Alabama. Neutral to slightly negative tilt too. Looks like a great run 

Based on analogs this would make sense. But be careful, AI is going more off of historical outcomes than necessarily physics. You need both and I'm not sure AI is quite there yet. Could be right... But caution is needed. AI is not proven reliable. Granted, what model is at this point. 

[ILM2714]

Wilmington seems to be on the edge on a good amount of not much at all…thoughts?

[WinstonSalemArlington]

From BAM

[WinstonSalemArlington]

25 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

I just looked at the point forecast for RDU, and if my math isn’t failing me thats 11” and still snowing lol. Also 20mph gusts through the height of the storm. Crazy.

Hoist those blizzard watches!

[WinstonSalemArlington]

BAM

[Buddy1987]

@wncsnow @BornAgain13 @olafminesaw @NorthHillsWx what you guys seeing? Confluence def a thing thus far at 12Z from a couple models but precip shield still looks intact at 72 from last run.

[olafminesaw]

A bit of Fujiwara effect going on between the low forming in the Bahamas and along the coast. Could lead to either a track more to the East, or some pretty incredible totals if the Bhama low can swing the primary low back to the west end stall out

[USCG RS]

That confluence can also shunt the TPV south and perhaps it will act to capture and not kick. 

[Ravens94]

Coastal/ENC are in a great spot for this.  Gfs caving 

[NorthHillsWx]

Death band over Raleigh at hour 90

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

@wncsnow @BornAgain13 @olafminesaw @NorthHillsWx what you guys seeing? Confluence def a thing thus far at 12Z from a couple models but precip shield still looks intact at 72 from last run.

Changes mostly noise I think, which is good because it continues to be on the amplified end of the spectrum

[Ravens94]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

1 minute ago, Ravens94 said:

Coastal/ENC are in a great spot for this.  Gfs caving 

Heavy snow getting to the eastern Triad

[NorthHillsWx]

Monster GFS run again. For central and eastern NC

[olafminesaw]

GFS is going to be a big hit, but again, I would tread with caution given the complexity of the interaction as the low bombs out and consolidated

[KrummWx]

GFS w 2' of snow at RDU by 93

[Ravens94]

Gfs smokes the coast to Raleigh. 

[Buddy1987]

Congrats to you all I40 south and east!

[NorthHillsWx]

976 just off the cape will do just fine…

[Justicebork]

Stationary low bombing out off Hatteras basically all night Saturday.

[StantonParkHoya]

This is unbelievable for ENC. Someone is going to get 2'.

[Omen]

[DTP]

10 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Early guess at 36 has me say the trends at 12Z are not western folks friends put it that way. Don't like the fact things are tending to stay more positively tilted and east.

W edge has to tilt about 20-30 degrees eastward at the base for it to be optimal, all other other things being equal....the southward dig and overall location of the trough base is a good sign, however 

[UnionCountyNCWX]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

This is unbelievable for ENC. Someone is going to get 2'.

Close to Three foot in some spots on that run

[wncsnow]

Good run for us western folks too. Less of a precip minima over the escarpment 

[NorthHillsWx]

Going to be another legendary run for RDU folks