The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[wxfool]

36 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Good grief! 30” in Carteret and Craven counties!!!

There were snowdrifts up to 8' on the Crystal Coast from that event.

[WXNewton]

I like these storms that pop up and we are just a day or two away from getting NAM'ed

[olafminesaw]

Euro AI Rock Steady in the general evolution (6z vs 12z)

[Upstate Tiger]

The 3/1/1980 storm was a bit of a disappointment in the upstate.  Friday the 29th was sunny and temp climbed to 60.  
 

NWS issued a WSW that afternoon and forecast of temp falling to 30 by morning and remaining steady or falling through Saturday, with 8”-10” of snow.
 

The temp was at 30 at daybreak and did drop through the day.  But a warm nose kept the upstate sleet all day. We accumulated a couple inches of sleet.  

Every time it transitioned to snow and we thought the changeover had occurred, it would go back to sleet.  We were slightly saved by a ULL that night that gave us a quick 2”-3”.  So not a total bust.  

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, Upstate Tiger said:

The 3/1/1980 storm was a bit of a disappointment in the upstate.  Friday the 29th was sunny and temp climbed to 60.  
 

NWS issued a WSW that afternoon and forecast of temp falling to 30 by morning and remaining steady or falling through Saturday, with 8”-10” of snow.
 

The temp was at 30 at daybreak and did drop through the day.  But a warm nose kept the upstate sleet all day. We accumulated a couple inches of sleet.  

Every time it transitioned to snow and we thought the changeover had occurred, it would go back to sleet.  We were slightly saved by a ULL that night that gave us a quick 2”-3”.  So not a total bust.  

March 1st is also a tricky time to snow in the South. Yes it can, but the sun angle is STRONG by then so any BL problems are amplified. Not as much the case late Jan.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

25 minutes ago, wxfool said:

There were snowdrifts up to 8' on the Crystal Coast from that event.

Dang

[Upstate Tiger]

4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

March 1st is also a tricky time to snow in the South. Yes it can, but the sun angle is STRONG by then so any BL problems are amplified. Not as much the case late Jan.

And unlike 1980, the preceding days will not be mild.  

[Orange county]

3 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

And unlike 1980, the preceding days will not be mild.  

And this is why the next week or ten days would be nice................

[KrummWx]

I wonder what the record for longest stretch of highs in the 30s is for RDU? This is as long a stretch as I can remember since I moved here in 2012

[olafminesaw]

6 minutes ago, KrummWx said:

I wonder what the record for longest stretch of highs in the 30s is for RDU? This is as long a stretch as I can remember since I moved here in 2012

14 days 21 hours in 1977. With a decent snowpack it may start pushing towards the top of the list

[kvegas-wx]

48 minutes ago, wxfool said:

There were snowdrifts up to 8' on the Crystal Coast from that event.

Or was it just a dusting on a sand dune?  

[NC DataDude]

1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Correct. Down East NC has a larger one-time snowstorm total than Toronto, Ontario.

I so remember that storm.  My dad and I made a 7' snowman. LOL Had 11' snow drifts in Greenville, NC.

[wxfool]

Just now, kvegas-wx said:

Or was it just a dusting on a sand dune?  

Too funny!   I was only 7 at the time. Never even realized it was possibly to snow at the beach.

[WXNewton]

Looking back at the trend of the 12z GFS, I expect it to look pretty good at 18z with one more tick back to the west and closing off sooner. We will soon see!

[Brick Tamland]

Euro, ICON, and Canadian all with monster storms here and the GFS with a big one, too. This is looking good. 

[olafminesaw]

Really neat loop and a word of caution 

https://x.com/TomNiziol/status/2015858077736546666?s=20

[WarmNoseHater]

30 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Euro, ICON, and Canadian all with monster storms here and the GFS with a big one, too. This is looking good. 

this sounds familiar......

[Brick Tamland]

ICON at 114.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

ICON at 114.

Four and a half days away 

[Brick Tamland]

End of the ICON. Still a lot more to come after this.

[Shad]

thats through Saturday at 1pm

[neatlburbwthrguy]

Does the ICON not have snow in north Ga as it did this morning? 

[BornAgain13]

18z ICON looks good! Hopefully GFS keeps coming back this way

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

Does the ICON not have snow in north Ga as it did this morning? 

18z only goes out 120 hours. 

[HKY_WX]

ICON EPS . Love the location of the HP. Generally a very good spot for SECS Miller A's.

 

[neatlburbwthrguy]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

18z only goes out 120 hours. 

Makes sense thank you

[olafminesaw]

Just now, HKY_WX said:

ICON EPS . Love the location of the HP. Generally a very good spot for SECS Miller A's.

 

Nice, gotta focus on the big picture pieces. All the pieces are on the board,just need to nail down phasing/timing of all the energy. Will be a few more days of model mayhem before we can start focusing on the details

[SEwakenosnowforu]

1 hour ago, KrummWx said:

I wonder what the record for longest stretch of highs in the 30s is for RDU? This is as long a stretch as I can remember since I moved here in 2012

I think it was 2018 but RDU went almost 5 straight days without getting above freezing. Maybe 4 days

[Snowncanes]

AIGFS way south with the low. Doesn’t phase early enough and slides south. Still a little QPF but mostly light stuff from the northern stream energy.

[olafminesaw]

AI GFS digs the trough much more this run