February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[psuhoffman]

53 minutes ago, Shad said:

Well the last 3 runs of the GFS have been completely different for this time period so take it with a grain of salt

You think we shouldn’t take the op gfs at 200 hours too seriously? 

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, bncho said:

GFS tries with the Feb 20 @CAPE potential

It did a thing on my house 

[psuhoffman]

47 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

CMC looks weird.  At least on pivotal.  Jumps precip all around us

it was a weaker version of Feb 5 2010.  Much weaker which duh Nina. But synoptically the same idea and progression.  -PNA, pac wave ejects and is forced east under a block and can’t gain any latitude. 
 

Take the CMC and amp that wave a bit more and that’s our win scenario 

[GreyHat]

31 minutes ago, bncho said:

GFS tries with the Feb 20 @CAPE potential

I welcome the rain in delmarva. 

[Chris78]

The Euro AI looks pretty damn good I think. Temps iffy but evolution and track look awesome.

 

[stormtracker]

Euro so close

[stormtracker]

Looks like another sleet bomb, lol.  But close enough.  Nice QPF

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Euro so close

I mean verbatim that would do it, right? Looking forward to the WxBell version of that panel

[stormtracker]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I mean verbatim that would do it, right? Looking forward to the WxBell version of that panel

Yeah, you have the good maps.  Looks like non frozen snow?

Also has some pre-party event at 162

[NorthArlington101]

AIFS. Haven't seen a storm like this in a bit...

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I mean verbatim that would do it, right? Looking forward to the WxBell version of that panel

Obviously, something fell before that panel which means probably a start as snow. Once you get to the red doted line, you're likely losing some part of mid levels.

[NorthArlington101]

Also I am feeling happy that I dodged the trip to Aspen for PD weekend. I knew that timeframe was unacceptable. 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

AIFS. Haven't seen a storm like this in a bit...

The 1990s called, they want their snowstorm back

[mitchnick]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

The 1990s called, they want their snowstorm back

Hey...1990's! My youth! I missed it then, so don’t take it from me now.

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Hey...1990's! My youth! I missed it then, so don’t take it from me now.

I’m never gonna kick a 7” snow storm out of bed!

[psuhoffman]

@Stormchaserchuck1 the 2 times recently we got significant Atlantic side help during the 2nd half of the winter during a -PNA period we did stay cold and somewhat snowy. Late Jan early Feb 2021 and March 2018. I don’t think the blocking coming up will equal those two BUT we have a much colder antecedent airmass also so those two might wash out.  

[NorthArlington101]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, you have the good maps.  Looks like non frozen snow?

Also has some pre-party event at 162

The ~162 event is a modeled ice storm but temps are very marginal. Probably the elusive 31 and rain. Close enough at range though

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m never gonna kick a 7” snow storm out of bed!

But what if a 20”er is texting you a booty call? 

[NorthArlington101]

PD storm starts at 186 also as frza

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

PD storm starts at 186 also as frza

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m never gonna kick a 7” snow storm out of bed!

What's this....the 8th modeled snowstorm on the AI thus season?  Hard to get excited at this point. But we hope.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Takes til 204 to flip DC to backend snow

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The ~162 event is a modeled ice storm but temps are very marginal. Probably the elusive 31 and rain. Close enough at range though

That’s the lead wave. The main event is slightly better 

[NorthArlington101]

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

What's this....the 8th modeled snowstorm on the AI thus season?  Hard to get excited at this point. But we hope.

In fairness it’s run 4 times a day and taking every time it spits out one random run at 200+ hours with snow isn’t fair to categorize it as “predicting a snowstorm”. This is only the 3rd time it was consistently hitting a specific storm for multiple runs. One is them ended up good. The other not. We will see. 

[LP08]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

We know the euro over does fzra….but I want nothing to do with another sleet storm haha

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’d assume some of that ZR is sleet. We know the euro doesn’t show sleet very well. 

[psuhoffman]

Euro says I might see my lawn sometime in May 

[Ji]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Euro says I might see my lawn sometime in May 

weird how the AI models led the way. Today is the first time we have seen the OP models join the fray. All the big models show a storm now lol. Euro,GFS,Canadian

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Ji said:

weird how the AI models led the way. Today is the first time we have seen the OP models join the fray. All the big models show a storm now lol. Euro,GFS,Canadian

I showed you yesterday how the EPS was so close and if that Baja wave just ejected a bit more energy…boom.  Once in a long while I know what I’m talking about. 
 

There are still 5000 little things that can go wrong. Over amping becomes an issue if it ejects too much. Remember Jan 25!  This time we won’t have arctic cold to offset a hostile track. But when guidance was squashing the thing I knew there was a good chance it came back because it needed a slight adjustment in a way models often are biased.