Southern Crippler - Get well soon Jimbo Storm Obs

[StantonParkHoya]

Yes. Light, fine snow north Raleigh.


.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The HRRR just keeps trending colder. I don't think it's out of the question the final band is mixed with sleet. In fact that is what it is showing on P-type map

Dylan Hudler has a great explanation for this remarkable setup:  

What a wild event so far for central NC.

The sub-freezing layer is so cold, snow and sleet is actually forming in the lowest couple thousand feet of the atmosphere in an environment that would otherwise only favorable for freezing rain.

Some of the strongest CAD I've ever seen.

[kvegas-wx]

According to the pawprint method, I have to be close to 1.5" of all things frozen here in Kernersville (Triad).  "Paws" in the action currently.  Waiting for the final assault.

[eolian]

37 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

For who? I beg to differ. 

South of i85 in the upstate of SC it nailed the dry slot.

we got 1/2 of sleet so far with zero freezing rain.

” if it lasts for the 2nd half.”

[tarheelwx]

My NWS forecast for Colfax has max wind today and tonight at 7 mph.   What’s up with that?

TW

[Cyric297]

3 minutes ago, KrummWx said:

Again I say: NWS needs to send a team to study this. I'm 0.7 miles from North Hills and it's quiet as a mouse. Not a single flake. I remember last year storm you had twice as much snow as me too, less than a mile away. Totally bizarre.

Agreed.  I'm 1.8 miles northwest near Sanderson and its nothing up here.  Also I have a temp of 23.4f, but thats on a crappy amazon temp guage.  NorthHillsWx are you in one of the high rises or something? 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, Cyric297 said:

Agreed.  I'm 1.8 miles northwest near Sanderson and its nothing up here.  Also I have a temp of 23.4f, but thats on a crappy amazon temp guage.  NorthHillsWx are you in one of the high rises or something? 

Temp could be sus. It’s frozen over 

[NorthHillsWx]

7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Yes. Light, fine snow north Raleigh.


.

Glad I ain’t the only one who saw it lol. Got people saying I’m blind 

[Isopycnic]

19.2f/17dp

sneet flizzard

.60 accum

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Clemson 

https://x.com/tropicalupdate/status/2015449391104958743?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

[Met1985]

29 minutes ago, DTP said:

Upstate SC- my neck of the woods....modeled the precip shield down here almost exactly how it actually played out

 

agreed on the thermals- they were off by a wide margin

Yeah true.  Precipitation did back off a lot. 

[64Storm]

As many expected the CAD is not eroding nearly as quickly as modeled here in the northern Atlanta 'burbs. Most hourly forecasts show us being above freezing by now and headed to the low 40s this afternoon. But still sitting at 30.

[Met1985]

21 minutes ago, PeeDeeWx said:

Nailed it for most of SC. In regard to moisture at least.

Yeah very true. 

[Met1985]

9 minutes ago, eolian said:

South of i85 in the upstate of SC it nailed the dry slot.

we got 1/2 of sleet so far with zero freezing rain.

” if it lasts for the 2nd half.”

Yup very true. 

[Upstate Tiger]

Radar doesn’t look impressive but we’re getting the heaviest snow and sleet since really early this morning. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[AirNelson39]

Cool view of the CAD

[DTP]

14 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Radar doesn’t look impressive but we’re getting the heaviest snow and sleet since really early this morning. 

Starting to fill back in over the eastern Upstate as well- we just had a heavier burst of sleet and snow S of CLT about 15 minutes ago....didn't last very long, however 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

3 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

Cool view of the CAD

What app?

[DTP]

2 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

Cool view of the CAD

Very cool- you could do a really neat graphical with an x,y,z as well to give it a third dimension

Pretty friggin impressive as far as CAD events go

[64Storm]

Looks like WeatherBug app to me. My personal favorite. It has great maps.

[USCG RS]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

WRAL had the triangle in the “crippling” category yesterday 

So from an Emergency/Risk Management perspective, I don't think they were wrong to use that word. This still isn't over and if we get hit with a squall line of heavy freezing rain, this will be major to potentially crippling. You're talking heavy to maybe torrential freezing rain with temps in the 20s and then wind. That's disaster. 

As I have said before, this is a situation where you pull out all the stops. Even if it turns out to be wrong, which we still hope it does. But here is what I've seen, a multitude of inconvenient to potentially dangerous scenarios coming together to form a potentially crippling scenario. 

1) Anomolously deep cold. Now we also have a glaze of ice and sleet, so everything that falls is going to stick. 

2) Potentially catastrophic ice accumulation, especially on infrastructure that is already strained due to over burdening and infrastructure that may not have been replaced from Helene. 

3) Exceedingly cold weather coming in with potential high end power losses and houses not designed to insulate against this type of cold. 

4) Potentially impassable roadways for days. Meaning municipal and emergency services can't drive either. 

5) More potential winter weather within a shorter time frame behind this. 

6) The majority of the country is being hit with a significant winter storm. So we don't have a Calvary coming to assist for some time. 

7) Potentially strong winds behind the storm, after ice has accumulated. 

Combining all these together, you have the risk of a catastrophic event. 

As a way of showcasing what I mean - I like to use the example of United Airlines Flight 232. This flight was an Md10 aircraft, which despite its later track record is and was a very safe aircraft. 

For this incident, the engine over the tail exploded. This caused a catastrophic blow out which led to a complete loss of hydraulics and thus loss of control of the aircraft. 

But here's why I bring this up: it was a series of very unfortunate events which led to a full catastrophe. 

1) The engine exploded due to a minor hairline crack in one of the engine fins. This eventually led to the fin breaking, causing the catastrophic implosion. This was missed by several technicians, in part because the airline designed their own maintenance plan, causing a divergence from the manufacturer recommendations in some slight manners. This removed a redundancy which may have picked up on the crack. 

2) The aircraft was designed with three separate hydraulic lines so a loss of hydraulics was theoretically/statistically almost impossible. Unfortunately, these three lines met in the tail, exactly where the engine imploded. 

3)The engine was designed to contain an implosion. However, Because they were at altitude and the engine was running in such low density air, the pressure did not push it back so much as allowing it to shoot downward. Combined with the force of the explosion, which was not normal for an aircraft engine, even one that explodes. 

4) The engine also was able to explode at the exact millisecond so as to send the broken fin into the fuselage, severing the hydraulic lines below it. Exactly where the three sets of hydraulic met. Thus a full loss of hydraulics. 

5) There was no training (to my knowledge) for piloting and aircraft with no controls. 

6) There happened to be one of the foremost experts for this aircraft sitting in the cabin. This saved a plethora of lives but not all as the pilots were able to devise a way to use thrust to guide the aircraft, though it was exceedingly hard to do so. 

7) The pilots actually guided the aircraft to an airport and was very close to landing successfully when a gust of wind combined with the issue of thrust and loss of hydraulics to cause the aircraft to dip to one side, crashing down the runway in pieces at it landed. 

Despite this, 184 persons survived. 296 were on board (112 perished). 

I use this example to show the shear number of things which had to go wrong for this event to even to line up to be catastrophic. Even then, it could have been worse. 

So from a risk management point of view, you have the lining up of a series of unfortunate incidents combining together to provide a potentially catastrophic scenario. When you see these types of events lining up, you don't hold back on preparations or warning. 

Side note - argument for better communication of the pitfalls... I agree wholeheartedly. This way if we are wrong, we don't get the boy who cried wolf reputation and then something truly hits. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Winston-Salem

[NorthHillsWx]

Gotta be one of the strongest wedges we’ve ever seen

[DTP]

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

So from an Emergency/Risk Management, I don't think they were wrong to use that word. This still isn't over and if we get hit with a squall line of heavy freezing rain, this will be major to potentially crippling. You're talking heavy to maybe torrential freezing rain with temps in the 20s and then wind. That's disaster. 

As I have said before, this is a situation where you pull out all the stops. Even if it turns out to be wrong, which we still hope it does. But here is what I've seen, a multitude of inconvenient to potentially dangerous scenarios coming together to form a potentially crippling scenario. 

1) Anomolously deep cold. Now we also have a glaze of ice and sleet, so everything that falls is going to stick. 

2) Potentially catastrophic ice accumulation, especially on infrastructure that is already strained due to over burdening and infrastructure that may not have been replaced from Helene. 

3) Exceedingly cold weather coming in with potential high end power losses and houses not designed to insulate against this type of cold. 

4) Potentially impassable roadways for days. Meaning municipal and emergency services can't drive either. 

5) More potential winter weather within a shorter time frame behind this. 

6) The majority of the country is being hit with a significant winter storm. So we don't have a Calvary coming to assist for some time. 

7) Potentially strong winds behind the storm, after ice has accumulated. 

Combining all these together, you have the risk of a catastrophic event. 

As a way of showcasing what I mean - I like to use the example of United Airlines Flight 232. This flight was an Md10 aircraft, which despite its later track record is and was a very safe aircraft. 

For this incident, the engine over the tail exploded. This caused a catastrophic blow out which led to a complete loss of hydraulics and thus loss of control of the aircraft. 

But here's why I bring this up: it was a series of very unfortunate events which led to a full catastrophe. 

1) The engine exploded due to a minor hairline crack in one of the engine fins. This eventually led to the fin breaking, causing the catastrophic implosion. This was missed by several technicians, in part because the airline designed their own maintenance plan, causing a divergence from the manufacturer recommendations in some slight manners. This removed a redundancy which may have picked up on the crack. 

2) The aircraft was designed with three separate hydraulic lines so a loss of hydraulics was theoretically/statistically almost impossible. Unfortunately, these three lines met in the tail, exactly bow where the engine imploded. 

3)The engine was designed to contain an implosion. However, Because they were at altitude and the engine was running in such low density air, the pressure did not push it back so much as allowing it to shoot downward. Combined with the force of the explosion, which was not normal for an aircraft engine, even one that explodes. 

4) The engine also was able to explode at the exact millisecond so as to send the broken fin into the fuselage, severing the hydraulic lines below it. Exactly where the three sets of hydraulic met. Thus a full loss of hydraulics. 

5) There was no training (to my knowledge) for piloting and aircraft with no controls. 

6) There happened to be one of the foremost experts for this aircraft sitting in the cabin. This saved a plethora of lives but not all as the pilots were able to devise a way to use thrust to guide the aircraft, though it was exceedingly hard to do so. 

7) The pilots actually guided the aircraft to an airport and was very close to landing successfully when a gust of wind combined with the issue of thrust and loss of hydraulics to cause the aircraft to dip to one side, crashing down the runway in pieces at it landed. 

Despite this, 184 persons survived. 296 were on board (112 perished). 

I use this example to show the shear number of things which had to go wrong for the even to line up to be catastrophic. Even then, it could have been worse. 

So from a risk management point of view, you have the lining up of a series of unfortunate incidents combining together to provide a potentially catastrophic scenario. When you see these types of events lining up, you don't hold back on preparations or warning. 

Side note - argument for better communication of the pitfalls... I agree wholeheartedly. This way if we are wrong, we don't get the boy who cried wolf reputation and then something truly hits. 

Good analogy/comparison

 

Swiss cheese model in this case- the recent UPS crash in Louisville was under similar circumstances.....also a DC-10 crash in 79' (DC-10 was the predecessor model of MD-10s)- Boeing was also at fault here- removing the engine from the pylon was a long and time consuming process, so most airline maintenance just skipped the whole step altogether and took the whole assembly off at once....then jammed it back together with a forklift

Plus you can't check for metal fatigue with the pylon still attached to the engine 

[IceQueen706]

If this has been answered already, sorry for asking again, but having conflicting radars.  In Clayton, GA in Rabun County.  Shows we will be getting thunderstorms in some future radars and others are showing freezing rain.  Which is correct??

[USCG RS]

Just now, IceQueen706 said:

If this has been answered already, sorry for asking again, but having conflicting radars.  In Clayton, GA in Rabun County.  Shows we will be getting thunderstorms in some future radars and others are showing freezing rain.  Which is correct??

Unfortunately, it looks like both. There is a potential for thunder freezing rain. 

[64Storm]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Gotta be one of the strongest wedges we’ve ever seen

The models way underestimated the CAD strength in the Atlanta metro. Concerning for this next band coming through.

[DTP]

2 minutes ago, IceQueen706 said:

If this has been answered already, sorry for asking again, but having conflicting radars.  In Clayton, GA in Rabun County.  Shows we will be getting thunderstorms in some future radars and others are showing freezing rain.  Which is correct??

Both I would imagine

This is an oddball storm

[USCG RS]

6 minutes ago, DTP said:

Good analogy/comparison

 

Swiss cheese model in this case- the recent UPS crash in Louisville was under similar circumstances.....also a DC-10 crash in 79' (DC-10 was the predecessor model of MD-10s)- Boeing was also at fault here- removing the engine from the pylon was a long and time consuming process, so most airline maintenance just skipped the whole step altogether and took the whole assembly off at once....then jammed it back together with a forklift

Plus you can't check for metal fatigue with the pylon still attached to the engine 

100%. And I won't comment further on this specific incident after this post... But when I saw the incident, i was immediately reminded American Airlines Flight 191 In Chicago (As you stated) . Turns out it was exactly that. 

So it's beyond Boeings fault, it's pure negligence, because this EXACT scenario caused the United States deadliest aircraft  passenger accident in 1979.