Southern Crippler - Get well soon Jimbo Storm Obs

[SouthboundYank]

1 hour ago, EarlGrey said:

Ive always wanted to hear some ice thunder. I’ve heard snow thunder before and it was awesome. 

I've only experienced thundersnow, in NoVA a couple times more than a decade ago...but it's an amazing and surreal phenomenon.   

42 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

The DMV (DC) area media is calling this storm Sleetzilla.

Yep, we've had a number of NoVA friends send us pics this AM. Many up there are (understandably) ticked off they didn't get their near or just over foot of snow after a week of dire winter armageddon forecasts, and instead had a switchover to sleet in the middle of the night. They currently seem to have anywhere from 5-7" of some snow and mostly sleet on the ground...and, unfortunately, many up there still have a transition to ZR to undergo yet.  :/ 

5 minutes ago, Drummer said:

Lake Wylie. 0.25-0.5in of sleet, after an initial round of very light freezing rain after midnight. Waiting on the bigger round but kids and dog are enjoying.
 

I'm an old curmudgeonly former Yankee who doesn't ever want to clean up or shovel that stuff ever again. BUT I love to see pics like this, and always wish for SC kids to experience snow whenever possible.   

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I  was moved up to northern VA for fear of the ice at home and losing power by my job. I can say in Sterling, VA we have 1/2 mile vis in sleet now and that follows about 5 inches of snow. 

Given your circumstances, I'll say...TY for your service. The NoVA temps we've heard from friends up there are somewhat brutal today...and going to get worse this week.

[Met1985]

24 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Yesterday's NAM was about 10 degrees too warm to current temp

The NAM shit the bed on thermals.  Absolutely atrocious. 

[gman]

24 degrees. Sleet coming down the hardest I’ve seen so far.

[Met1985]

25 minutes ago, DTP said:

Believe or not, the NAM actually did a pretty good job up to current in modeling the storm

For who? I beg to differ. 

[RockyKnob]

26 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Wake County has a larger population than Mecklenburg and Durham + Raleigh MSAs are bigger. Hope this helps.


.

Raleigh-Durham MSA is NOT as big as Charlotte’s MSA. 2.7 million versus 2 million. 
 

I chalk it up to the fact that the Triangle, and certainly the Triad, get more action than Charlotte. 

[Met1985]

14 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I  was moved up to northern VA for fear of the ice at home and losing power by my job. I can say in Sterling, VA we have 1/2 mile vis in sleet now and that follows about 5 inches of snow. 

Enjoy man.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

1 minute ago, RockyKnob said:

Raleigh-Durham MSA is NOT as big as Charlotte’s MSA. 2.7 million versus 2 million. 
 

I chalk it up to the fact that the Triangle, and certainly the Triad, get more action than Charlotte. 

Yeah, it was more balanced in the 00s and early 2010s, when Metrolina got more winter action. 

[Omen]

13 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I  was moved up to northern VA for fear of the ice at home and losing power by my job. I can say in Sterling, VA we have 1/2 mile vis in sleet now and that follows about 5 inches of snow. 

My employer is in Winchester. I almost pulled the trigger and got a hotel up there so I didn't have to use leave if I lost power. I'm glad I didn't since it doesn't look like I'm going to get much fzrn and I'm hearing they only 6 or 7 inches.  

[NEGA_Dawg]

We go all sleet last night. Temps are forecast to get above freezing before the line of rain hits. I dont see that happening. Its going on noon and we havent budged from 24 degrees. Could this help it fall as more sleet vs Freezing rain?

[kvegas-wx]

3 minutes ago, NEGA_Dawg said:

We go all sleet last night. Temps are forecast to get above freezing before the line of rain hits. I dont see that happening. Its going on noon and we havent budged from 24 degrees. Could this help it fall as more sleet vs Freezing rain?

Not down there in GA.  That freezing layer is probably very shallow at this point.  Wont take much to pull you above freezing.  But definitely will be ZR at the onset.

Edit - surface obs at Morganton and Blairsville GA are already showing 46°.  Probably a slightly higher elevation, sure.  But the heat is coming east.

[NEGA_Dawg]

5 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Not down there in GA.  That freezing layer is probably very shallow at this point.  Wont take much to pull you above freezing.  But definitely will be ZR at the onset.

Edit - surface obs at Morganton and Blairsville GA are already showing 46°.  Probably a slightly higher elevation, sure.  But the heat is coming east.

Im in Elbert County. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

At 11:28 AM EST, 1 N Winston-Salem [Forsyth Co, NC] Broadcast Media reports Snow of 1.30 Inch. Around 1.3 inches of snow and sleet at the WXII studios.

[DTP]

17 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

For who? I beg to differ. 

Upstate SC- my neck of the woods....modeled the precip shield down here almost exactly how it actually played out

 

agreed on the thermals- they were off by a wide margin

[kvegas-wx]

5 minutes ago, NEGA_Dawg said:

Im in Elbert County. 

So basically SC near Greenville.  Who knows man.  We're talking death CAD here on the Lee side of the apps.  All I can offer is this and best wishes for some warmth this afternoon:

..ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Damaging icing expected. Additional light sleet
  accumulations and ice accumulations around one half of an inch.
  Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...The mountains of northeast Georgia, upstate South
  Carolina, and portions of southwest North Carolina.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Monday.

 

[USCG RS]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

There’s no two ways to spin this- serious forecast bust. Thankfully for those in ice areas

I would argue not yet. What's coming through is nothing to sneeze at. 

[Clemsonlady]

Clemson

27 degrees currently

Overnight mix of sleet and snow
Driveway just shoveled
Showed at least inch to 2 inches

Currently ice still falling… trees are also just now icing

We got lucky up till now
Guess we will see when the heavy precip passes.


.

[NorthHillsWx]

32 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I  was moved up to northern VA for fear of the ice at home and losing power by my job. I can say in Sterling, VA we have 1/2 mile vis in sleet now and that follows about 5 inches of snow. 

Glacier level: unheard of here

[PeeDeeWx]

25 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

For who? I beg to differ. 

Nailed it for most of SC. In regard to moisture at least.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[olafminesaw]

The HRRR just keeps trending colder. I don't think it's out of the question the final band is mixed with sleet. In fact that is what it is showing on P-type map

[KrummWx]

55 minutes ago, sarcean said:

Wrong. Charlotte metro population is 2.9 million. RDU metro population doesn't come close to that (1.5 million).

Oof. The Raleigh-Cary metro population is 1.5M and the Durham-Chapel-Hill population is 610k. Combined we get 2.1M and it's still smaller in land area than CLT metro by OMB (read: denser throughout). And everyone knows the 2 metros connect seamlessly. There are parts of Raleigh that are closer to downtown Durham than they are downtown Raleigh and vice versa. Shared suburbs and employment centers (RTP). When you combine Raleigh, Durham and Cary's (all border each other) population you get 988,000 people over only 318 square miles (1,020,000 at 326 if you add Morrisville) vs Charlotte at 945k with 308 square miles. The CLT MSA and CSA are insanely huge, so it's easy to artificially inflate your population numbers. Lastly, the Triangle is a tech-heavy metro, lots of compsci and lifesci dorks. That will auto-lend itself to more weatherdorks as science people usually enjoy other sciences. Charlotte is just generic banks, insurance, investments, etc.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

The HRRR just keeps trending colder. I don't think it's out of the question the final band is mixed with sleet. In fact that is what it is showing on P-type map

If we get a heavy thunder sleet band this storm won’t be a bust lol

[NorthHillsWx]

Currently 20.9 with snow flurries. Yes, flurries 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The HRRR just keeps trending colder. I don't think it's out of the question the final band is mixed with sleet. In fact that is what it is showing on P-type map

Winston-Salem has already under seige by Sleetzilla for about 15 hours now.

[KrummWx]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Currently 20.9 with snow flurries. Yes, flurries 

Again I say: NWS needs to send a team to study this. I'm 0.7 miles from North Hills and it's quiet as a mouse. Not a single flake. I remember last year storm you had twice as much snow as me too, less than a mile away. Totally bizarre.

[NorthHillsWx]

Anyone thinking this wedge would break- I got news for you

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Cary

https://x.com/hurricanetrack/status/2015442535603216595?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, KrummWx said:

Again I say: NWS needs to send a team to study this. I'm 0.7 miles from North Hills and it's quiet as a mouse. Not a single flake. I remember last year storm you had twice as much snow as me too, less than a mile away. Totally bizarre.

We ain’t talking much lol. Gotta stare at my black truck

[SnowDawg]

Over 60% without power in Rabun county and rapidly going up. Even with a brief period just above freezing likely later, I'm very concerned about how things get when the heavy winds arrive.

[Brick Tamland]

4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The HRRR just keeps trending colder. I don't think it's out of the question the final band is mixed with sleet. In fact that is what it is showing on P-type map

The models that showed mostly freezing rain instead of sleet with last night's precip and the precip overnight were wrong, so really no reason to think this will be different.