January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[WEATHER53]

AtDCA temp went from 34 to 45 in one hour and dp from  27 to 10 and rh 76% to 24% ,  wind switch coincided but still odd and ominous forbidding sign 

[caviman2201]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The UK ptype maps had a glitch...shows snow in places that are clearly above freezing at 850 at 15z Sunday.  It still has a good thump legit for the area, 6-8" from what I can tell DC north to PA line... but the maps have to be thrown out because its not calculating precip type correctly 

It looks like the snowfall maps weren't affected by it - just the ptype map... at least on Pivotal

[yoda]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

AtDCA temp went from 34 to 45 in one hour and dp from  27 to 10 and rh 76% to 24% ,  wind switch coincided but still odd and ominous forbidding sign 

Not sure i follow

[zgummy]

18 minutes ago, wdcrob said:

As presented that's an astonishing map.  Are those #s even possible?

"The sleet to water ratio typically ranges from 2:1 to 4:1, meaning 2 to 4 inches of sleet (ice pellets) will melt down into 1 inch of liquid water"

Those areas show 2-4"+ QPF, so totally possible! 

 

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

Definitely starting to get more of that gfs look. Just needs to cool off/shift se a little more.

 

Low moves 350 miles south. No wonder we are so hamstrung by our “tools” 

[HighStakes]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Not sure i follow

make that two!

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Low moves 350 miles south. No wonder we are so hamstrung by our “tools” 

Starting to figure out it’s probably not an apps runner with that cold ass air

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Low moves 350 miles south. No wonder we are so hamstrung by our “tools” 

There isn't really a defined, closed circulation low there, it's a trough axis with elongated low pressure along it...slight changes of where exactly the "lowest" pressure point is along the trough axis at any given moment can change where that map decides to place the "L" which makes the change look more significant that it was.  

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

It looks like the snowfall maps weren't affected by it - just the ptype map... at least on Pivotal

I don't have access to the Kuchera maps...the UK 10-1 maps are always inflated because they include ice as snow, which in setups like this...makes them look better than they are.  

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There isn't really a defined, closed circulation low there, it's a trough axis with elongated low pressure along it...slight changes of where exactly the "lowest" pressure point is along the trough axis at any given moment can change where that map decides to place the "L" which makes the change look more significant that it was.  

Part of the reason I’m rather bullish on this getting a little colder and not giving a ton of credibility to the NAM runs thermals. For one, an incredibly anomalous airmass. Two, the wave and the LP aren’t that intense to flood the ML’s with a crazy warm nose. I think the cold will fight back here. 

[JakkelWx]

Trying to figure out if this really means anything, considering its BAMWX lol:

https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2014741841628074006

[Jebman]

19 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Development has begun!

 

I can confirm - rain is developing in south central Texas at this time. Winter storm is a go - I repeat, winter storm is a go - Positive developments underway!

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Part of the reason I’m rather bullish on this getting a little colder and not giving a ton of credibility to the NAM runs thermals. For one, an incredibly anomalous airmass. Two, the wave and the LP aren’t that intense to flood the ML’s with a crazy warm nose. I think the cold will fight back here. 

After seeing the entire 12z suite I think the issue with the NAM is simply it's weak sauce south of the PA line with the WAA precip.  Had the nam looked like EVERYTHING ELSE wrt that it would have been colder.  

[DDweatherman]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

After seeing the entire 12z suite I think the issue with the NAM is simply it's weak sauce south of the PA line with the WAA precip.  Had the nam looked like EVERYTHING ELSE wrt that it would have been colder.  

100%. Glad it made the other positive changes, moved snow totals south and did get wetter. 

[caviman2201]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't have access to the Kuchera maps...the UK 10-1 maps are always inflated because they include ice as snow, which in setups like this...makes them look better than they are.  

Here u go

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Trying to figure out if this really means anything, considering its BAMWX lol:

https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2014741841628074006

Interesting but the US high res models aren't showing colder/snowier solutions than the GGEM/UK/Euro so...not sure what the point is from a functional POV 

[Solution Man]

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

After seeing the entire 12z suite I think the issue with the NAM is simply it's weak sauce south of the PA line with the WAA precip.  Had the nam looked like EVERYTHING ELSE wrt that it would have been colder.  

I've seen it as the anti GFS, an outlier to the opposite extreme.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, caviman2201 said:

Here u go

Love seeing it trend south with the big totals west of the apps as well. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Here u go

Thanks...any way you would show through the rest of the storm for those of us further north...I think we get a little more snow after 18z north of 70 

But that looks like a slight improvement from 6z, in line with most of the other 12z guidance 

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Here u go

Definitely increase on the Ukmet!!!

[mappy]

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