“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Diggiebot said:

Isn’t this an extreme cold setup. Saturday is going to be frigid. Wouldn’t this keep things south and make it harder to bump north or does this system carry so much warm gulf air north that it can override the cold. It seems like a really unusual setup overall. 

Just depends how quickly and proficiently they phase.

[Ocean Effect]

ICON Big Hit

[MuddyWx]

Yea icon is days and days... phaser. Looked less amped at the beginning 

[MuddyWx]

[CCHurricane]

Secondary low is back on the menu re: ICON on Monday night thru Tuesday morning.

[OrangeCTWX]

Icon is a beaut

[Prismshine Productions]

Half the damn country... One system

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[CoastalWx]

We fake that. Develops the secondary 

[MuddyWx]

loopdy loop.. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Wow. Icon slays. Gets eastern areas with the coastal. That’s how you get 12-18

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We fake that. Develops the secondary 

Wil be interesting to see if there's a substantive change in the 500h evolution with the recon data on the Baja low added.  

[ma blizzard]

2 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

loopdy loop.. 

theres the high end evolution 

[Prismshine Productions]

Kuchie gives Ray 19", Boston 24.3" and one jackpot NNE of Boston 34"

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[Prismshine Productions]

theres the high end evolution 

Got a little more ceiling even on that if the coastal develops quicker

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[MuddyWx]

fun start to 0z

[ROOSTA]

Steady as she goes!
Doesn't feel the same as say a few years ago, my ties to New England have faded.
Priorities change, how precious time is!

[MuddyWx]

sadly that icon evolution is an outlier in its own ensemble suite. ens didn't change much

[WxWatcher007]

We gotta get back into high gear. Mid-Atlantic has 4x the weenies in their thread right now. Even the southeast forum is beating us.

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Imagine the melts if it turns into a snow to rain situation...lol

Tbh the mid level support isn’t there to anchor the high. Given the intensity of the trailing shortwave it’s not much to see it slide east and become that giant surface high that merges with the WAR that we’ve seen happen so many times before….

The Canadian surface high kicking east like 24 hours sooner is basically the only thing that needs to change to take on a high amplitude MJO phase 7 look which we will be in at go time…

Not much given still 100 hours out. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs sees a tad slower through 66. Wonder if that helps the final outcome 

[Prismshine Productions]

We gotta get back into high gear. Mid-Atlantic has 4x the weenies in their thread right now. Even the southeast forum is beating us.

Tbdf they are more snow starved than we are

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[Prismshine Productions]

Gfs sees a tad slower through 66. Wonder if that helps the final outcome 

Slightly lesser heights over us too, this should be more in line with 12z or slightly better

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[ORH_wxman]

Looks like the GFS will not whiff on the phase like 18z did. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Tbdf they are more snow starved than we are

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No they aren't..they have done better relative to average past several years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Tbh the mid level support isn’t there to anchor the high. Given the intensity of the trailing shortwave it’s not much to see it slide east and become that giant surface high that merges with the WAR that we’ve seen happen so many times before….

The Canadian surface high kicking east like 24 hours sooner is basically the only thing that needs to change to take on a high amplitude MJO phase 7 look which we will be in at go time…

Not much given still 100 hours out. 

Even if it theoretically tuned to rain, there would still be a hell of a dump first.

[jbenedet]

There is sooo much long wave spacing out west to get this further north.

That ridge axis out west keeps inching west. It’s basically in general position where we open up inland runner risk…

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

There is sooo much long wave spacing out west to get this further north.

That ridge axis out west keeps inching west. It’s basically in general position where we open up inland runner risk…

It's not going inland with that PV there.

[MuddyWx]

AIGFS beefed up

[OrangeCTWX]

Much much better than 18z

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's not going inland with that PV there.

 

This is wonky. The dual surface lows..

What I’m thinking is more that the lead wave fizzles and the trailing surface reflection is our main storm up here…

An how that would change the mid level evolution if that lead wave is dampened completely.