January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[FreezingDrizzle]

My son now lives in Fairmount, Philadelphia.

Mt. Holly shows his snow accumulation as 7 to 12 inches, not counting Sunday overnight into Monday.

Is this realistic?  I'm thinking more like 5 to 10 inches considering a change to sleet and/or freezing rain.  Any thoughts?

[The Iceman]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

But 20 years ago this setup would never have pushed the mix line that far N and W as this one. And I understand this is more 700-800 mb layer stuff, but still. Yes, climo always N and W i agree. But when did i78 become the line? This is 4th or 5th time since 2018.

20 years ago was VD 2007. That had a stronger primary further west but then again that's why we are going to get way more snow with this one. I need to go back and look at the surface maps, but this storm is starting to remind me of that one with the huge high overhead. 

 

Edit: found it! look familiar? Like I said not as strong with the primary as 07 but looks fairly similar set up to me.

 

[RedSky]

2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Doesn’t power outages start or so around 0.25” liquid of Frz Rain growing more concerned for central Delaware County. 

The NAM doesn't show it it could be some phantom thing from the euro have to see future runs

 

 

[The Iceman]

1 minute ago, FreezingDrizzle said:

My son now lives in Fairmount, Philadelphia.

Mt. Holly shows his snow accumulation as 7 to 12 inches, not counting Sunday overnight into Monday.

Is this realistic?  I'm thinking more like 5 to 10 inches considering a change to sleet and/or freezing rain.  Any thoughts?

Go with what Mt. Holly says, none of us in here are as qualified as those guys. Really though there is little difference practically between 5-10 and 6-12". Maybe a tenth of freezing rain at the end but I wouldn't expect serious ice problems. 

[MGorse]

6 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Doesn’t power outages start or so around 0.25” liquid of Frz Rain growing more concerned for central Delaware County. 

It depends on whether it is planar/flat or radial ice. Forecasts are planar/flat ice accretion which is less than radial ice. For trees and power lines, it is the greater radial ice accretion that causes the problems (generally above 0.25 inches of accretion).

[JTA66]

Everyone take a deep breath. We still haven't been NAM'd yet. I'm sure it's coming. 

[Violentweatherfan]

50 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

 

Perhaps its a more ..."efficient" transfer of the primary to the costal low. That seems to be driving the earlier/faster evolution/colder/more southern solutions

There really is no transfer, it’s redevelopment off the coast 

[Narberth Chedva]

1 minute ago, JTA66 said:

Everyone take a deep breath. We still haven't been NAM'd yet. I'm sure it's coming. 

somebody get the "go home NAM you're drunk" images from storage in preparation

[Birds~69]

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

But 20 years ago this setup would never have pushed the mix line that far N and W as this one. And I understand this is more 700-800 mb layer stuff, but still. Yes, climo always N and W i agree. But when did i78 become the line? This is 4th or 5th time since 2018.

I know what you're talking about.    I78 was never mentioned years back...Iceman is a younger lad. 

[The Iceman]

Just now, Birds~69 said:

I know what you're talking about.    I78 was never mentioned years back...Iceman is a younger lad. 

Yeah I came of age in the warmer years, it’s always been this sleet crap for me 

[jrodd321]

Wsw 11-15 for Nw burbs. Buckle up boys.

[jrodd321]

12 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Go with what Mt. Holly says, none of us in here are as qualified as those guys. Really though there is little difference practically between 5-10 and 6-12". Maybe a tenth of freezing rain at the end but I wouldn't expect serious ice problems. 

Think we’re looking good for a foot Justin good 45 miles NW of Philly.

[Birds~69]

Just now, The Iceman said:

Yeah I came of age in the warmer years, it’s always been this sleet crap for me 

Believe it or not, just N of Philly was the "line" back in the day. Sometimes it panned out, sometimes it didn't. Now it never pans out. If Philly turns over so am I about a hour later. But I78 was never "the line". Hell, when I was young I wouldn't know where the Fvck I78 was located. Probably would have asked my Mother or Father...

[Ralph Wiggum]

15 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

20 years ago was VD 2007. That had a stronger primary further west but then again that's why we are going to get way more snow with this one. I need to go back and look at the surface maps, but this storm is starting to remind me of that one with the huge high overhead. 

 

Edit: found it! look familiar? Like I said not as strong with the primary as 07 but looks fairly similar set up to me.

 

Absolutely. We were doing a comp.over in the mid atl sub the other day between the 2 storms.  Very similar structurally.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Yeah I came of age in the warmer years, it’s always been this sleet crap for me 

What does warmer years mean? Post-1997? Post-2015?

[JTA66]

10 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

There really is no transfer, it’s redevelopment off the coast 

I feel like I should know this, but what's the difference?

[Violentweatherfan]

1 minute ago, JTA66 said:

I feel like I should know this, but what's the difference?

Surface Low pressure system dies out and then redevelops off the coast… for every action there is an opposite reaction.

[Hurricane Agnes]

23 minutes ago, FreezingDrizzle said:

My son now lives in Fairmount, Philadelphia.

Mt. Holly shows his snow accumulation as 7 to 12 inches, not counting Sunday overnight into Monday.

Is this realistic?  I'm thinking more like 5 to 10 inches considering a change to sleet and/or freezing rain.  Any thoughts?

Fairmount is near the Art Museum downtown so there is a warmer microclimate due to the building density down there.  I still think this will definitely be a "warning criteria" storm, i.e., >6".

[The Iceman]

11 minutes ago, jrodd321 said:

Think we’re looking good for a foot Justin good 45 miles NW of Philly.

I think you're in a great spot for a foot John, enjoy! I don't think you'll see a ton of mixing either, if any. Smart man moving further NW 

[The Iceman]

10 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

What does warmer years mean? Post-1997? Post-2015?

Post 1997

[Violentweatherfan]

I remember learning that back Eastern US Weather, poster named OKPowdah wrote a paper about Miller B storms I’ll see if I can find it

[Birds~69]

I'm quite amazed how down people are? Maybe not a all-timer but a damn nice storm. Most don't have to worry about work/driving, AFC/NFC championship games are on so basically you can drink/eat yourself silly and watch the snow fall and football all day long. Borderline heaven if you ask me... 

[anthonyweather]

32 minutes ago, FreezingDrizzle said:

My son now lives in Fairmount, Philadelphia.

Mt. Holly shows his snow accumulation as 7 to 12 inches, not counting Sunday overnight into Monday.

Is this realistic?  I'm thinking more like 5 to 10 inches considering a change to sleet and/or freezing rain.  Any thoughts?

Really what's the difference? is that extra inch or two going to change his lifestyle?

 

[Violentweatherfan]

3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I'm quite amazed how down people are? Maybe not an all-timer but a damn nice storm. Most don't have to worry about work/driving, AFC/NFC championship games are on so basically you can drink/eat yourself silly and watch the snow fall and football all day long. Borderline heaven if you ask me... 

Daytime snow too!

[Lady Di]

2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I'm quite amazed how down people are? Maybe not a all-timer but a damn nice storm. Most don't have to worry about work/driving, AFC/NFC championship games are on so basically you can drink/eat yourself silly and watch the snow fall and football all day long. Borderline heaven if you ask me... 

It will be sleeting here (IMBY) by game time.  At least I can have a champagne and egg breakfast, so I am not all that down. All our forums are very active with this huge storm.  Hoping all make out OK, I've been reading all of them.

[JTA66]

12 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Surface Low pressure system dies out and then redevelops off the coast… for every action there is an opposite reaction.

I guess I'm asking what's the difference between a "transfer" and a "redevelopment"? I've always used those terms interchangeably. Just trying to increase my knowledge.

[Birds~69]

4 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Daytime snow too!

And super cold so no stickage problems.

I don't think salt works (or not as well) under 20F (?, could be wrong) and have no clue how brine handles <20F temps...

[Hurricane Agnes]

5 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

Really what's the difference? is that extra inch or two going to change his lifestyle?

 

You probably haven't driven downtown when there was a bare coating of packed down rutted snow with a layer of ice and water on top on the major streets, where buses start spinning or slide around when turning a corner! Don't ask me why I would know the issues. 

[Violentweatherfan]

1 minute ago, JTA66 said:

I guess I'm asking what's the difference between a "transfer" and a "redevelopment"? I've always used those terms interchangeably. Just trying to increase my knowledge.

I don’t think it’s possible for a surface low to “give or transfer energy”. Even the graphic that was posted mentions redevelopment. 

[Narberth Chedva]

9 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

Really what's the difference? is that extra inch or two going to change his lifestyle?

 

every inch matters, that's what I always say