Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[Jt17]

Nice 6-10. Thats what we should expect.

Very close to better. Euro AI better, most short range keep it snow longer or entirely. I think small changes are possible that can make a big diff in totals.


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[Wxoutlooksblog]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Needed the coastal to slide ene and develop further south.

Spot-on.

WX/PT

[psv88]

I think totals will come down at the next shift. Maybe 6-10” for the city and coast. 10-14” is too bullish now. Unfortunately that secondary isn’t much of a help. 
 

I’m still very much looking forward to tracking this beast, even though it’s become a glorified SWFE for the coast

[ILoveWinter]

6 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Very close to better. Euro AI better, most short range keep it snow longer or entirely. I think small changes are possible that can make a big diff in totals.


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Exactly. Even an hour delay in a changeover could mean 2” extra.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

5 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Spot-on.

WX/PT

For the 10-14" numbers you need an intensifying coastal well south of our latitude. This one intensifies near Cape Cod, too late to wrap the cold air around at all levels. 

WX/PT

[Metasequoia]

Just now, psv88 said:

I think totals will come down at the next shift. Maybe 6-10” for the city and coast. 10-14” is too bullish now. Unfortunately that secondary isn’t much of a help. 
 

I’m still very much looking forward to tracking this beast, even though it’s become a glorified SWFE 

It's good to keep expectations in check... and a 24 hour storm with 6 to 10 inches of snow and sleet (followed by below freezing temps for a week) would typically thrill everyone on here.

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

For the 10-14" numbers you need an intensifying coastal well south of our latitude. This one intensifies near Cape Cod, too late to wrap the cold air around at all levels. 

WX/PT

Disagree with that. We’ve had setups where we’ve cleaned up without it.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Disagree with that. We’ve had setups where we’ve cleaned up without it.

Yep, 2/13/14 for example I don’t think was a rapidly intensifying coastal and there was widespread 10-14” amounts. 

[weatherpruf]

41 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Snow storm, January 25-26, 1994 - Storm Summary

it was more of an ice storm, with the few inches freezing solid, you could not get the ice off car windows it was too thick. with no home depots around yet, you could not get salt, table salt, kitty litter or sand. i got stuck in a parking lot on the ice spinning in circles and had to be pulled off by a passing tow truck. 

[Winterweatherlover]

You dont need a rapidly intensifying coastal when it's already frigid, you just need a storm thats not going to warm up all the levels, unfortunately this storm will likely do that with it's combined primary/secondary tracks.

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, 2/13/14 for example I don’t think was a rapidly intensifying coastal and there was widespread 10-14” amounts. 

That storm was a beast. I was in Nassau and I had 5” in one hour. Was insane. 
 

if we can hang out on snow for an extra 2 hours we could snag a foot, but the consensus is for a changeover around 5 pm. 

[Snowguy66]

The analysis is all over the place in this subform

[coastalplainsnowman]

6 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

It's good to keep expectations in check... and a 24 hour storm with 6 to 10 inches of snow and sleet (followed by below freezing temps for a week) would typically thrill everyone on here.

As always it's about expectations rather than actual accumulations, to a silly extreme.  Once you get the idea in your head that someone is going to give you 12 to 18 hundred dollars, and they only give you 6 hundred, there's actually sadness, even though virtually any other week of any winter in the last three years you'd be thrilled if someone handed you 600 dollars.

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I think totals will come down at the next shift. Maybe 6-10” for the city and coast. 10-14” is too bullish now. Unfortunately that secondary isn’t much of a help. 
 

I’m still very much looking forward to tracking this beast, even though it’s become a glorified SWFE for the coast

We did pretty well last Feb with that smaller SWFE when the snow came in heavy right away. Same with Nov 2018 which was completely unexpected. This will have a larger overrunning surface which means theoretically a longer duration of snow. But we really have to see how this evolves overnight/in the morning. We’ll do well if we have heavy snow echos coming in like a wall for hundreds of miles to the south. If we have spotty in some places heavy snow in some places light and dry holes thrown in, we won’t. And the sleet will take over sooner. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, coastalplainsnowman said:

As always it's about expectations rather than amounts, to a silly extreme.  Once you get the idea in your head that someone is going to give you 12 to 18 hundred dollars, and they only give you 6 hundred, there's actually sadness, even though virtually any other week of any winter in the last three years you'd be thrilled if someone handed you 600 dollars.

The media doesn't help with this, if they wouldn't be calling for a foot for days and days and days but I guess it's also our choice whether we listen or ignore it.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

That storm was a beast. I was in Nassau and I had 5” in one hour. Was insane. 
 

if we can hang out on snow for an extra 2 hours we could snag a foot, but the consensus is for a changeover around 5 pm. 

I’m thinking 8-10” total where we are, have to hedge lower with the NAM as crappy as it is and GFS cutting back. Hopefully the snowy models have a clue. 

[Monty]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Disagree with that. We’ve had setups where we’ve cleaned up without it.

Its necessary when the primary h7 trough axis passes N and W

[psv88]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

We did pretty well last Feb with that smaller SWFE when the snow came in heavy right away. Same with Nov 2018 which was completely unexpected. This will have a larger overrunning surface which means theoretically a longer duration of snow. But we really have to see how this evolves overnight/in the morning. We’ll do well if we have heavy snow echos coming in like a wall for hundreds of miles to the south. If we have spotty in some places heavy snow in some places light and dry holes thrown in, we won’t. And the sleet will take over sooner. 

November 2018 was incredible. 
 

people on here seem to have trauma or something. We’ve had MANY positive busts with SWFEs. Many many. They often turn out better than expected, especially with an arctic high up north 

[psv88]

Just now, Monty said:

Its necessary when the primary h7 trough axis passes N and W

That’s not what he said. 

[steve392]

Local Railroad by me and tge one I started with aren't messing around.  Setting up plow trains for their nwnj or southern tier routes expecting the worst. 

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

That storm was a beast. I was in Nassau and I had 5” in one hour. Was insane. 
 

if we can hang out on snow for an extra 2 hours we could snag a foot, but the consensus is for a changeover around 5 pm. 

From the Bronx:

[EW9616]

November 2018 was incredible. 
 
people on here seem to have trauma or something. We’ve had MANY positive busts with SWFEs. Many many. They often turn out better than expected, especially with an arctic high up north 

Agree I think places will do fine. Seen the comparisons to Dec 2020 storm. Would gladly take that. Had 10-12” on north shore of Nassau with that one before short flip to sleet from what I remember.


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[sussexcountyobs]

4 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Local Railroad by me and tge one I started with aren't messing around.  Setting up plow trains for their nwnj or southern tier routes expecting the worst. 

Do you work for Susquehanna?

[psv88]

Just saw the Euro closer in. It got better for all. It’s got better internals than the NAM. I’m not panicking yet

[Prue11]

13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

That storm was a beast. I was in Nassau and I had 5” in one hour. Was insane. 
 

if we can hang out on snow for an extra 2 hours we could snag a foot, but the consensus is for a changeover around 5 pm. 

Didn’t SWSuffolk and SE Nassau jackpot during that storm?

[psv88]

Just now, Prue11 said:

Didn’t SWSuffolk and SE Nassau jackpot during that storm?

No 

[Prue11]

Jim Cantore concerned with possible ZR moving into nyc and LI evening hours 

[nycsnow]

Just now, Prue11 said:

Jim Cantore concerned with possible ZR moving into nyc and LI evening hours 

Highly doubt there’s any freezing rain, he likes the NAM I guess

[Prue11]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

No 

Who was the winner on LI? Can’t find totals online 

[Astoriaweather]

Taken from Mid-Atlantic forum. But this looks great, if it were to verify even with a few inches shaved off.