mriceyman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 My Final snowmap callWhere the hell you find that map to go over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 My temps running 3 degrees cooler then forecast at 11 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 High Res RGEM a bit less snowy from its insane 12z. About a foot for everyone now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I'm usually reluctant to do forecasts because I am not schooled in forecasting...unless I am very confident in the forecast. Here is my high confidence forecast: In a few days the north shore of LI will look like it had 14" of snow a few days ago. 13/-3 now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, NorthShoreWx said: I'm usually reluctant to do forecasts because I am not schooled in forecasting...unless I am very confident in the forecast. Here is my high confidence forecast: In a few days the north shore of LI will look like it had 14" of snow a few days ago. Hope you're right and I'm wrong. I think we get 10" total snow/sleet. South shore 8". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said: I'm usually reluctant to do forecasts because I am not schooled in forecasting...unless I am very confident in the forecast. Here is my high confidence forecast: In a few days the north shore of LI will look like it had 14" of snow a few days ago. You’re a lock for a foot plus up there. Enjoy it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, jm1220 said: Hope you're right and I'm wrong. I think we get 10" total snow/sleet. South shore 8". He’s much further northeast than us. He’ll get a foot in my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Hope you're right and I'm wrong. I think we get 10" total snow/sleet. South shore 8". You might be right. I'm saying what I think will be the after effect of it it in a few days. There's more than one way to get there. When it comes to forecasting snow amounts and tricky p-types, I'm a bit of a snowflake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: He’s much further northeast than us. He’ll get a foot in my opinion. We’re all getting surprised tomorrow. I like the trends I really like the trend of pushing the sleet line south & hearing some of the soundings even though show sleet would be snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Btw just for fun euro ai is 12+ for most 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 16 minutes ago, psv88 said: He’s much further northeast than us. He’ll get a foot in my opinion. Not sure precisely where you are, but my best guess is 7 or 8 miles tops (maybe less) as the crow flies. Plus I'm only at 122 feet. Spots near you are up to 300. I'll gladly take the foot. Molte grazie. Addendum: either way, our streets are going to look the same in a few days, and it will be a good look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, NorthShoreWx said: Not sure precisely where you are, but my best guess is 7 or 8 miles tops (maybe less) as the crow flies. Plus I'm only at 122 feet. Spots near you are up to 300. I'll gladly take the foot. Molto grazie. I’m at the intersection of the SAG and the northern state. That 7/8 miles seems right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Ratio chart. Onset liquid equivalent to snow is going to be bonkers. Other factors may slightly differ in ratios itself such as winds and upper air conditions. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, psv88 said: I’m at the intersection of the SAG and the northern state. That 7/8 miles seems right That intersection is 8 road miles for me; less for the proverbial crow. There's some pretty good hills just to the sw of the interchange. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 5 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Not sure precisely where you are, but my best guess is 7 or 8 miles tops (maybe less) as the crow flies. Plus I'm only at 122 feet. Spots near you are up to 300. I'll gladly take the foot. Molto grazie. Addendum: either way, our streets are going to look the same in a few days, and it will be a good look. About a 20 minute drive from the middle of Smithtown straight down 25. I agree, what we get won't be going anywhere for a good 10 days. It'll be a tundra. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 28 minutes ago, mriceyman said: Where the hell you find that map to go over . what do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said: Ratio chart. Onset liquid equilivent to snow is going to be bonkers. Other factors may slightly differ in ratios itself such as winds and upper air conditions. Where does this come from? I've seen it snow in the single digits and accumulate like sand because at too cold temps the flakes start to resemble needles that don't accumulate efficiently. Lower surface temps don't mean better ratios. Why Some Snowflakes Look Like Needles - BelowClouds.com 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 13 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Btw just for fun euro ai is 12+ for most The Euro AI has been really consistent as has the UKMET, lets hope they're on to something. The AI has been performing well this winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Where does this come from? I've seen it snow in the single digits and accumulate like sand because at too cold temps the flakes start to resemble needles that don't accumulate efficiently. Lower surface temps don't mean better ratios. Why Some Snowflakes Look Like Needles - BelowClouds.com Yeah, trying to associate ratios with surface temps is a fools game. I've seen some of the best ratios right at 32. Bxstormwatcher...no offense intended 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Where does this come from? I've seen it snow in the single digits and accumulate like sand because at too cold temps the flakes start to resemble needles that don't accumulate efficiently. Lower surface temps don't mean better ratios. Why Some Snowflakes Look Like Needles - BelowClouds.com Which is why I mentioned,winds and upper air conditions. Surface temps are not exclusive to exact ratios anyway. If it feels like sand then there was some warmer air intrusion somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 0z Euro is great. 10+ for everyone. Until tomorrow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Yeah, trying to associate ratios with surface temps is a fools game. I've seen some of the best ratios right at 32. Bxstormwatcher...no offense intended None taken..it is a general rule but not exactly what happens. But it is basic info for the newbies . Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 This looks pretty close. 7-9 or 8-10 for LI/NYC area unless little mixing happens https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean§or=ne 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Think I suffered a stroke after trying to read Weathergeek’s weenie map. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 My final guess is 5-7 south of NYC, 7-10 NYC metro, 9-12 coastal CT/Lower Hudson valley. Somewhere near Boston or Southern NH jackpots with 20+ . Hoping I bust low though and we all get crushed. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Euro is aggressive in bringing in the mixing during the afternoon, but a nice thump before then. Hopefully the thump will be as advertised since the sleet will likely be here mid to late afternoon. I'd be happy with 7 or 8 before the mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Precip is racing in. Faster start time = more snow. Even if it changed over by 5 pm,that's 12 hours of heavy snow,if it started at 5am. Ill let everyone do their own math for shits and giggles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Euro is aggressive in bringing in the mixing during the afternoon, but a nice thump before then. Hopefully the thump will be as advertised since the sleet will likely be here mid to late afternoon. I'd be happy with 7 or 8 before the mixing. Short term models presenting the possibility of the sleet line retreating after a few hours and bringing a few hours of good snow at the end. If it never turns back to snow it might finish with 7-9 inches, but if it does might get 10-12 inches . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 5 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said: Precip is racing in. Faster start time = more snow. Even if it changed over by 5 pm,that's 12 hours of heavy snow,if it started at 5am. Ill let everyone do their own math for shits and giggles. Faster in, faster out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, Snowguy66 said: Totals might be great, but can't make out the geography. You need a better map of the area. . 1 hour ago, mriceyman said: Where the hell you find that map to go over . 1 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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