Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, hooralph said:

Find someone to love and hold on to it like the UKMET and that weird snow hole over NYC.

It’s gotten snowier each run. Looks great 

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

still watching that trend on the hourly models and hrr once again brings the mix line up and then starts to drop it south of li…. Really hope this isn’t fake 

It's advancing a little further every run. At 21z now it's sleeting in Staten Island and barrier islands, from the 0z run at the same time the sleet was around Perth Amboy. It still dumps a lot beforehand but it's noticeable by 10 miles or so. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

My Final snowmap call

[Snowguy66]

Totals might be great, but can't make out the geography. You need a better map of the area.


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[Snowguy66]

Like I pointed out the other day. Whenever the models show a long duration event, it rarely happens. I'm still excited for this event. Hopefully it over performs.


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[wthrmn654]

Upton is back online

[mriceyman]

My Final snowmap call

Where the hell you find that map to go over


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[wthrmn654]

My temps running 3 degrees cooler then forecast at 11 right now

[psv88]

High Res RGEM a bit less snowy from its insane 12z. About a foot for everyone now 

[NorthShoreWx]

I'm usually reluctant to do forecasts because I am not schooled in forecasting...unless I am very confident in the forecast.  Here is my high confidence forecast:

In a few days the north shore of LI will look like it had 14" of snow a few days ago.

 

13/-3 now

[jm1220]

Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

I'm usually reluctant to do forecasts because I am not schooled in forecasting...unless I am very confident in the forecast.  Here is my high confidence forecast:

In a few days the north shore of LI will look like it had 14" of snow a few days ago.

Hope you're right and I'm wrong. I think we get 10" total snow/sleet. South shore 8". 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I'm usually reluctant to do forecasts because I am not schooled in forecasting...unless I am very confident in the forecast.  Here is my high confidence forecast:

In a few days the north shore of LI will look like it had 14" of snow a few days ago.

You’re a lock for a foot plus up there. Enjoy it. 

[psv88]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Hope you're right and I'm wrong. I think we get 10" total snow/sleet. South shore 8". 

He’s much further northeast than us. He’ll get a foot in my opinion. 

[NorthShoreWx]

13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hope you're right and I'm wrong. I think we get 10" total snow/sleet. South shore 8". 

You might be right. I'm saying what I think will be the after effect of it it in a few days.  There's more than one way to get there.  When it comes to forecasting snow amounts and tricky p-types, I'm a bit of a snowflake 

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

He’s much further northeast than us. He’ll get a foot in my opinion. 

We’re all getting surprised tomorrow. I like the trends I really like the trend of pushing the sleet line south & hearing some of the soundings even though show sleet would be snow 

[nycsnow]

Btw just for fun euro ai is 12+ for most 

[NorthShoreWx]

16 minutes ago, psv88 said:

He’s much further northeast than us. He’ll get a foot in my opinion. 

Not sure precisely where you are, but my best guess is 7 or 8 miles tops (maybe less) as the crow flies.  Plus I'm only at 122 feet.  Spots near you are up to 300.  I'll gladly take the foot.  Molte grazie.

Addendum: either way, our streets are going to look the same in a few days, and it will be a good look.

[psv88]

Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

Not sure precisely where you are, but my best guess is 7 or 8 miles tops (maybe less) as the crow flies.  Plus I'm only at 122 feet.  Spots near you are up to 300.  I'll gladly take the foot.  Molto grazie.

I’m at the intersection of the SAG and the northern state. That 7/8 miles seems right

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Ratio chart. Onset liquid equivalent to snow is going to be bonkers. Other factors may slightly differ in ratios itself such as winds and upper air conditions.

[NorthShoreWx]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

I’m at the intersection of the SAG and the northern state. That 7/8 miles seems right

That intersection is 8 road miles for me; less for the proverbial crow.  There's some pretty good hills just to the sw of the interchange.

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Not sure precisely where you are, but my best guess is 7 or 8 miles tops (maybe less) as the crow flies.  Plus I'm only at 122 feet.  Spots near you are up to 300.  I'll gladly take the foot.  Molto grazie.

Addendum: either way, our streets are going to look the same in a few days, and it will be a good look.

About a 20 minute drive from the middle of Smithtown straight down 25.

I agree, what we get won't be going anywhere for a good 10 days. It'll be a tundra. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

28 minutes ago, mriceyman said:

Where the hell you find that map to go over


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what do you mean? 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Ratio chart. Onset liquid equilivent to snow is going to be bonkers. Other factors may slightly differ in ratios itself such as winds and upper air conditions.

Where does this come from? I've seen it snow in the single digits and accumulate like sand because at too cold temps the flakes start to resemble needles that don't accumulate efficiently. Lower surface temps don't mean better ratios. Why Some Snowflakes Look Like Needles - BelowClouds.com

[kat5hurricane]

13 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Btw just for fun euro ai is 12+ for most 

The Euro AI has been really consistent as has the UKMET, lets hope they're on to something. The AI has been performing well this winter

[NorthShoreWx]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Where does this come from? I've seen it snow in the single digits and accumulate like sand because at too cold temps the flakes start to resemble needles that don't accumulate efficiently. Lower surface temps don't mean better ratios. Why Some Snowflakes Look Like Needles - BelowClouds.com

Yeah, trying to associate ratios with surface temps is a fools game.  I've seen some of the best ratios right at 32.

Bxstormwatcher...no offense intended

[Bxstormwatcher360]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Where does this come from? I've seen it snow in the single digits and accumulate like sand because at too cold temps the flakes start to resemble needles that don't accumulate efficiently. Lower surface temps don't mean better ratios. Why Some Snowflakes Look Like Needles - BelowClouds.com

Which is why I mentioned,winds and upper air conditions. Surface temps are not exclusive to exact ratios anyway. If it feels like sand then there was some warmer air intrusion somewhere.

[psv88]

0z Euro is great. 10+ for everyone. 
 

Until tomorrow

[Bxstormwatcher360]

4 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Yeah, trying to associate ratios with surface temps is a fools game.  I've seen some of the best ratios right at 32.

Bxstormwatcher...no offense intended

None taken..it is a general rule but not exactly what happens. But it is basic info for the newbies . Lol

[SnowGoose69]

This looks pretty close.  7-9 or 8-10 for LI/NYC area unless little mixing happens

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=ne

[Snowlover11]

Think I suffered a stroke after trying to read Weathergeek’s weenie map.