Jt17 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Nice 6-10. Thats what we should expect.Very close to better. Euro AI better, most short range keep it snow longer or entirely. I think small changes are possible that can make a big diff in totals. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Needed the coastal to slide ene and develop further south. Spot-on. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I think totals will come down at the next shift. Maybe 6-10” for the city and coast. 10-14” is too bullish now. Unfortunately that secondary isn’t much of a help. I’m still very much looking forward to tracking this beast, even though it’s become a glorified SWFE for the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Very close to better. Euro AI better, most short range keep it snow longer or entirely. I think small changes are possible that can make a big diff in totals. . Exactly. Even an hour delay in a changeover could mean 2” extra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Spot-on. WX/PT For the 10-14" numbers you need an intensifying coastal well south of our latitude. This one intensifies near Cape Cod, too late to wrap the cold air around at all levels. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, psv88 said: I think totals will come down at the next shift. Maybe 6-10” for the city and coast. 10-14” is too bullish now. Unfortunately that secondary isn’t much of a help. I’m still very much looking forward to tracking this beast, even though it’s become a glorified SWFE It's good to keep expectations in check... and a 24 hour storm with 6 to 10 inches of snow and sleet (followed by below freezing temps for a week) would typically thrill everyone on here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: For the 10-14" numbers you need an intensifying coastal well south of our latitude. This one intensifies near Cape Cod, too late to wrap the cold air around at all levels. WX/PT Disagree with that. We’ve had setups where we’ve cleaned up without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Disagree with that. We’ve had setups where we’ve cleaned up without it. Yep, 2/13/14 for example I don’t think was a rapidly intensifying coastal and there was widespread 10-14” amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 41 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Snow storm, January 25-26, 1994 - Storm Summary it was more of an ice storm, with the few inches freezing solid, you could not get the ice off car windows it was too thick. with no home depots around yet, you could not get salt, table salt, kitty litter or sand. i got stuck in a parking lot on the ice spinning in circles and had to be pulled off by a passing tow truck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 You dont need a rapidly intensifying coastal when it's already frigid, you just need a storm thats not going to warm up all the levels, unfortunately this storm will likely do that with it's combined primary/secondary tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yep, 2/13/14 for example I don’t think was a rapidly intensifying coastal and there was widespread 10-14” amounts. That storm was a beast. I was in Nassau and I had 5” in one hour. Was insane. if we can hang out on snow for an extra 2 hours we could snag a foot, but the consensus is for a changeover around 5 pm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The analysis is all over the place in this subform 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: It's good to keep expectations in check... and a 24 hour storm with 6 to 10 inches of snow and sleet (followed by below freezing temps for a week) would typically thrill everyone on here. As always it's about expectations rather than actual accumulations, to a silly extreme. Once you get the idea in your head that someone is going to give you 12 to 18 hundred dollars, and they only give you 6 hundred, there's actually sadness, even though virtually any other week of any winter in the last three years you'd be thrilled if someone handed you 600 dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8 minutes ago, psv88 said: I think totals will come down at the next shift. Maybe 6-10” for the city and coast. 10-14” is too bullish now. Unfortunately that secondary isn’t much of a help. I’m still very much looking forward to tracking this beast, even though it’s become a glorified SWFE for the coast We did pretty well last Feb with that smaller SWFE when the snow came in heavy right away. Same with Nov 2018 which was completely unexpected. This will have a larger overrunning surface which means theoretically a longer duration of snow. But we really have to see how this evolves overnight/in the morning. We’ll do well if we have heavy snow echos coming in like a wall for hundreds of miles to the south. If we have spotty in some places heavy snow in some places light and dry holes thrown in, we won’t. And the sleet will take over sooner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, coastalplainsnowman said: As always it's about expectations rather than amounts, to a silly extreme. Once you get the idea in your head that someone is going to give you 12 to 18 hundred dollars, and they only give you 6 hundred, there's actually sadness, even though virtually any other week of any winter in the last three years you'd be thrilled if someone handed you 600 dollars. The media doesn't help with this, if they wouldn't be calling for a foot for days and days and days but I guess it's also our choice whether we listen or ignore it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: That storm was a beast. I was in Nassau and I had 5” in one hour. Was insane. if we can hang out on snow for an extra 2 hours we could snag a foot, but the consensus is for a changeover around 5 pm. I’m thinking 8-10” total where we are, have to hedge lower with the NAM as crappy as it is and GFS cutting back. Hopefully the snowy models have a clue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 minutes ago, psv88 said: Disagree with that. We’ve had setups where we’ve cleaned up without it. Its necessary when the primary h7 trough axis passes N and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: We did pretty well last Feb with that smaller SWFE when the snow came in heavy right away. Same with Nov 2018 which was completely unexpected. This will have a larger overrunning surface which means theoretically a longer duration of snow. But we really have to see how this evolves overnight/in the morning. We’ll do well if we have heavy snow echos coming in like a wall for hundreds of miles to the south. If we have spotty in some places heavy snow in some places light and dry holes thrown in, we won’t. And the sleet will take over sooner. November 2018 was incredible. people on here seem to have trauma or something. We’ve had MANY positive busts with SWFEs. Many many. They often turn out better than expected, especially with an arctic high up north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Monty said: Its necessary when the primary h7 trough axis passes N and W That’s not what he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Local Railroad by me and tge one I started with aren't messing around. Setting up plow trains for their nwnj or southern tier routes expecting the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 9 minutes ago, psv88 said: That storm was a beast. I was in Nassau and I had 5” in one hour. Was insane. if we can hang out on snow for an extra 2 hours we could snag a foot, but the consensus is for a changeover around 5 pm. From the Bronx: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EW9616 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 November 2018 was incredible. people on here seem to have trauma or something. We’ve had MANY positive busts with SWFEs. Many many. They often turn out better than expected, especially with an arctic high up north Agree I think places will do fine. Seen the comparisons to Dec 2020 storm. Would gladly take that. Had 10-12” on north shore of Nassau with that one before short flip to sleet from what I remember. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, steve392 said: Local Railroad by me and tge one I started with aren't messing around. Setting up plow trains for their nwnj or southern tier routes expecting the worst. Do you work for Susquehanna? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just saw the Euro closer in. It got better for all. It’s got better internals than the NAM. I’m not panicking yet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 13 minutes ago, psv88 said: That storm was a beast. I was in Nassau and I had 5” in one hour. Was insane. if we can hang out on snow for an extra 2 hours we could snag a foot, but the consensus is for a changeover around 5 pm. Didn’t SWSuffolk and SE Nassau jackpot during that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Prue11 said: Didn’t SWSuffolk and SE Nassau jackpot during that storm? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Jim Cantore concerned with possible ZR moving into nyc and LI evening hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Prue11 said: Jim Cantore concerned with possible ZR moving into nyc and LI evening hours Highly doubt there’s any freezing rain, he likes the NAM I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, psv88 said: No Who was the winner on LI? Can’t find totals online Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astoriaweather Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Taken from Mid-Atlantic forum. But this looks great, if it were to verify even with a few inches shaved off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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