Winterweatherlover Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: and a very wide range of weather conditions usually in that 75 mile radius because of the terrain and ocean Yes orange county winter climo is closer to Albany then to NYC lol even though it's way closer geographically to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 8 hours ago, Snowlover11 said: Ukmet slaps us with 10-15”+ before a flip at the tail end. It doesn't even flip on LI (at least on those Pivotal p-type maps). Rare but not unheard of. Reminds me of 2-13-14 when we never got above freezing and were getting freezing rain while other places, including some inland, were getting plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 By Chance was Any data at 12z from recon planes today yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: Would a set up like this cause thundersnow? Predicting where and when thundersnow will happen is difficult, but... this is the setup could give us that. Interestingly enough, the Great Lakes are forecasted to have Snowspouts this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 23 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: If the 0 degree line is hugging LI like that very good chance some sleet makes it up to about 30 miles north of that line. The nam will sniff this out. i was just pointing out what the model depicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breene Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 26 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: look at this map it shows 850's below freezing that shows snow all around south of long island and nyc could be sleet but nyc and north is all snow on the euro. its a great run! I don't love for Long Island going from 24hrs ago the callouts about the impressive cold air and cheering any tick north to the freeze line right at the typical south shore spot with this much time left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Icon rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, TriPol said: Predicting where and when thundersnow will happen is difficult, but... this is the setup could give us that. Interestingly enough, the Great Lakes are forecasted to have Snowspouts this weekend. especially if the mid-level warmer air starts surging north causing alot of instability in the atmosphere - question is where this will happen ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 and what can conclude from that analysis....not being snide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Breene said: I don't love for Long Island going from 24hrs ago the callouts about the impressive cold air and cheering any tick north to the freeze line right at the typical south shore spot with this much time left I definitely understand, Parts of Long Island could flip to sleet unfortunately, even NYC. I am mostly basing my forecasting off GFS and especially Euro AI. plenty of time still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Icon wants to send the S/W in the Southwest on a vacation in Cabo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said: Icon wants to send the S/W in the Southwest on a vacation in Cabo All the models have it down there. The key is it ejecting Saturday morning. It’s interesting that one piece of this storm will bring rain to Southern CA on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, NJwx85 said: All the models have it down there. The key is it ejecting Saturday morning. Yep and not being so amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 ICON showing a lot more ice this run - something to watch for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 ICON with the warm push. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 ICON jackpots New England - what a shift verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, BoulderWX said: ICON jackpots New England - what a shift verbatim. This is why you don’t trust models 4-5 days out . Especially when a specific area is in the bullseye . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Ewwwww. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, jdj5211 said: Ewwwww . That blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Yeah… for Long Island and points south, the best hope we have is that the phase is messy and the wave ejecting eastward is weaker. Runs like this are thump to sleet, verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, BoulderWX said: ICON jackpots New England - what a shift verbatim. been a trend all day-continue northward ticks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, jdj5211 said: Ewwwww . Icon is literally the crappiest model it's like looking at the old Cras 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 wonder if that's the new data being injected into the models from the balloons or whatever they did out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: ICON with the warm push . looks like the Euro timing and mixing set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Brian5671 said: been a trend all day-continue northward ticks... I think this would be on the extreme end of guidance but mixing to some degree looks likely along the coast and potentially further inland. Lots of time for further adjustments either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: Icon is literally the crappiest model it's like looking at the old Cras True-but will be interesting to see if the other models follow suit-GFS will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Icon is literally the crappiest model it's like looking at the old CrasCrappy when it’s not a great run. Good when it is a great run! As is the rule with all models. . 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 rudolph the warm nosed reindeer had robust mid level warmth and if you saw the soundings you would even say “that’s sleet” 2 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, mob1 said: That blows Still 6+ almost entire subforum 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Brian5671 said: True-but will be interesting to see if the other models follow suit-GFS will be interesting Yes if Euro AI follows suit than it'll be very concerning if you want snow! GFS flip flops the best model now is euro ai in my opinion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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