1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[tnwxwatcher]

[mention=10822]tnwxwatcher[/mention] I would not be surprised if precip. starts quite a bit earlier than most models were showing last night based on the obs. above. 
I still think noon is a good call for travel getting worse, but if possible, I'd try to finish up those deliveries in Sevier county in as safe and an expeditious way as possible. 

Good Morning, we have adjusted our schedule and are returning back in soon.

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[Uncle Nasty]

Don't forget, we have an Obs Thread.  Not to say that you can not post them here, but for the sake of a clean thread, it would be good to transition those posts to the other location.

I saw it after I posted, and then accidentally posted it here again. Moved to correct it. Thanks for starting the OBS.

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[Holston_River_Rambler]

8 minutes ago, tnwxwatcher said:

Good Morning, we have adjusted our schedule and are returning back in soon.

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Sorry about that, but I was pretty confident you'd have until noon and I still don't think we see bad roads (other than usual East TN drivers) until after 12, but better safe than sorry. 

[tnwxwatcher]

Sorry about that, but I was pretty confident you'd have until noon and I still don't think we see bad roads (other than usual East TN drivers) until after 12, but better safe than sorry. 

Thank you all so much! We are returning back home now to Knoxville. Sure appreciate all the updates and analysis here!!

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[bearman]

There seems to be a lot of dry air across the northern two thirds of Tennessee. The southern areas are getting snow or sleet.   You can see this by the radar signature over Nashville and the hole that surrounds the radar site.  Don't know how this is going to affect the forecast or if it will effect it at all.

[fountainguy97]

hoping to dodge a bullet here. High-res models have some 35-50 mph gusts here during and after the freezing rain.  Thankfully the zr amounts arnt scary high on high res. But wouldn't take much.

 

[tnweathernut]

11 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

hoping to dodge a bullet here. High-res models have some 35-50 mph gusts here during and after the freezing rain.  Thankfully the zr amounts arnt scary high on high res. But wouldn't take much.

How much zr will be a problem for trees if wind gusts sre 30+?

.3-.4?

I would think as dry as it’s been that would help 

[fountainguy97]

3 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

.3-.4?

I would think as dry as it’s been that would help 

Yeah that's my guess too. The hrrr gives me .25-.3 but the other high res are much higher.

[Weatheriscool]

The NAM is just incessant on giving my area an ice storm on top of the snow and then snow on top of the ice! Nearly .80 of ice is enough to cause issues 

[WishingForWarmWeather]

10 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

The NAM is just incessant on giving my area an ice storm on top of the snow and then snow on top of the ice! Nearly .80 of ice is enough to cause issues 

Same and the NWS increased their forecast amount for Clarksville :/

[Weatheriscool]

1 hour ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

Same and the NWS increased their forecast amount for Clarksville :/

Would have been helpful to know 24 hours ago could have gotten things like candles etc. for when we lose power

[fountainguy97]

Hrrr near term trending colder each run. No surprise, I think the nam and fv3 thermals will be closer to reality.

[WishingForWarmWeather]

17 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

Would have been helpful to know 24 hours ago could have gotten things like candles etc. for when we lose power

I stocked up like the euro was the only model out there while praying things ended up like the gfs was the only model out there

[Greyhound]

Would have been helpful to know 24 hours ago could have gotten things like candles etc. for when we lose power

I don’t want to sound like a jerk, but that’s on you. There’s over 2,000 posts on here about the potential of this storm.


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[nrgjeff]

Memphis looks to keep mostly snow and sleet this first wave. Concerns remain on Sunday. Reliable models are split between more sleet or a slug of freezing rain. 

Nashville is of course subject to everything running cold. Several hours of all rain off ramp is in jeopardy. Sleet remains an exit ramp. Otherwise, major ice storm there - continuation of North Miss to southern Mid-Tenn.

Chattanooga will stay ice longer than forecast into tonight. CAD is c0ck blocking the warm nose.

[GBOVolz]

Would have been helpful to know 24 hours ago could have gotten things like candles etc. for when we lose power

Inexpensive necessities for a potential winter storm is stuff that I always have on hand. It’s confusing that you did not know that the weather was updated 24 hours ago for your location but you are on a weather chat board.


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[Weatheriscool]

Not going to be pretty if NWS forecast verifies for my area

[Golf757075]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z ensembles(EPS, GEPS) and 18z ensembles(AIFS-EPS, GEFS) all have a trough over the east  for most of their runs with maybe a 2-3 respite.  The Euro Weeklies continue that pattern well into February and maybe even early March.  The MJO-CPC is basically stalled in cold phases through mid-Feb when those runs end.  It looks likely that our cold and wintry pattern continues for a time - no guarantees.  IF that verifies, we all may be ready for spring when it finally arrives.

Ive heard talk about a possible pv split. Some type of SSW. Hope it happens to extend cold. Just prefer it not be cold and dry lol. 

[nrgjeff]

BNA 00Z sounding is still saturated to 700 mb. Can't dry out the column once saturated to 400 mb.

Could be some super cooled freezing drizzle across the Valley when it gets cold enough - if that sounding holds. Would be the first time I have seen Chattanooga fail to dry out in a cold chasing rain system. Well why not? System has yet another curveball. 

[jaxjagman]

We got all our stuff back yesterday afternoon,then last night the internet crashed about 830,was back on this morning.

Charged our phones in the car,using the phone at all was a pain in the ass,most of the time it was one bar if you got lucky with no wi-fi.

Our area looks like a tornado hit with no house damage unless you had a tree fall on it

[*Flash*]

Yeah, to Jax's point, much of metro and points south has looked like a warzone in recent weeks. Almost as if an EF-0 tornado the size of a county swept through. Definitely an historic storm that no one will miss. Hopefully, next year we'll be able to secure more fond winter memories. Wish more people could have had my outcome in the sense we didn't lose power against a better sleet/freezing rain ratio. 

 

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Yeah, to Jax's point, much of metro and points south has looked like a warzone in recent weeks. Almost as if an EF-0 tornado the size of a county swept through. Definitely an historic storm that no one will miss. Hopefully, next year we'll be able to secure more fond winter memories. Wish more people could have had my outcome in the sense we didn't lose power against a better sleet/freezing rain ratio. 

 

Dads on a sled never works out very well...lol

[*Flash*]

46 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Dads on a sled never works out very well...lol

True, but it’s for the love of the game.  I embrace my limitations as long as the kiddos are maxing on fun.

[jaxjagman]

10 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

True, but it’s for the love of the game.  I embrace my limitations as long as the kiddos are maxing on fun.

Oh yeah,enjoy every moment of it.Kids love it !!

I have to call my lawn people out,i havent even picked up my yard yet.

Like @Mathew was saying earlier we dont need to have any severe right now here,the trees are still stressed and damaged,we had some gust of just winds last Sat morning and knocked our power out for about 6 hrs