1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Tucker1027]

All the 18z models with ice totals 

[WintryMixmaster]

9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And ya'll.  I can tell you after Helene...you don't want to be without power.  No hot water.  No wifi.  No way to easily charge phones without a generator.  And internet w/ your cell provider is iffy as everyone else is on it as well.  During the fall...no AC is not pleasant either.  I can't imagine doing that with below zero temps.  We have alternate power and heating sources, but whew - it's work without power.   During Helene, we had boil water advisories to boot - sucked!!!!  At night, candles are great but flashlights are better.  I went out and bought a bunch of candles and extra lights after Helene.  Generators are incredibly valuable.  I wish I had solar chargers for phones.  

On a related note, it also sucks to be without water. My pipes froze during last winter's MLK day weekend cold snap because I mistakenly assumed my house was better insulated than it was... luckily no damage when they thawed, but it definitely reminded me how easy it is to take for granted something as simple as being able to go to the bathroom or wash your hands by turning a knob. Definitely going to drip the taps this week!

[WintryMixmaster]

4 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

All the 18z models with ice totals 

Some major differences there... I imagine there's a fine line between sleet vs freezing rain at 31 degrees vs plain rain at 32 degrees. A couple degrees in the mid-lower levels of the atmosphere could make this a lot better or a lot worse for a lot of people

[Carvers Gap]

15 minutes ago, WintryMixmaster said:

On a related note, it also sucks to be without water. My pipes froze during last winter's MLK day weekend cold snap because I mistakenly assumed my house was better insulated than it was... luckily no damage when they thawed, but it definitely reminded me how easy it is to take for granted something as simple as being able to go to the bathroom or wash your hands by turning a knob. Definitely going to drip the taps this week!

100%.  We had one pipe bust in ours years back in our current home due to a cold snap.  Our drain from our AC also busted - which reminds me!  We keep a heated coil on it nowadays.

I remember during 1985 sitting under our house trying to fix a split copper pipe(inserting a new section) and trying to sweat that pipe.  At -22F, everything refreezes instantly.  It kept blowing out the joint when we tried to put things back together.  We finally had to go get cardboard and put it on the ground in order to withstand the cold.  Also that winter, my dad and I put a starter in a 1972 Impala in the K-Mart parking lot here in Kingsport.  Those two days were the coldest of my life.  Great memories, but so cold.

[tnwxwatcher]

Been a while since I have posted. Just trying to get a handle on all of this inbound weather. My wife and I have to be to work in the morning at 4am in Alcoa to pick up deliverys to take to Sevier County, Pigeon Forge, Gatlinburg and then Morristown area tomorrow morning. About what time is this all supposed to start tomorrow? Trying to be sure if it safe enough to time it to make it to all of those places and back in time or re-schedule.

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[Holston_River_Rambler]

4 minutes ago, tnwxwatcher said:

Been a while since I have posted. Just trying to get a handle on all of this inbound weather. My wife and I have to be to work in the morning at 4am in Alcoa to pick up deliverys to take to Sevier County, Pigeon Forge, Gatlinburg and then Morristown area tomorrow morning. About what time is this all supposed to start tomorrow? Trying to be sure if it safe enough to time it to make it to all of those places and back in time or re-schedule.

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IMO if you can get all that done before noon you will be fine, of course no idea what Sevier county traffic will be like. 

[tnwxwatcher]

Thanks so much! That is very helpful. We will plan accordingly.

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[TellicoWx]

18z Euro AI vs 6z Euro Ai at same timeframe...definitely trending toward the HP tongue wrapping around the southern end of valley

[dwagner88]

I don't think there will be much if any accretion at 32. If the lower elevations down here maintain 32, I think the problems are minor. I suspect area mountaintops will be a disaster zone. Could even extend to the higher ridge tops in the eastern and northern suburbs.

[Greyhound]

Hurricane recon flying in the Gulf and off the Cali coast getting more data.


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[fountainguy97]

Not sure if this means much for 00z but sref is coming south.

we are not too far from possibly getting this thing south of the mountains. But my gut tells me we won't quite make it and it'll ride the apps 

[Tucker1027]

Not sure if this means much for 00z but sref is coming south.
we are not too far from possibly getting this thing south of the mountains. But my gut tells me we won't quite make it and it'll ride the apps 

GFS gonna win this war


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[Mrwolf1972]

What happens if it goes up NC side will it change much 

[Matthew70]

1 minute ago, Tucker1027 said:

GFS gonna win this war


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Would that not be awesome.  Even the 18z euro trended south. 

[fountainguy97]

Just now, Mrwolf1972 said:

What happens if it goes up NC side will it change much 

The valley wouldn't see as big of a warm surge. But I don't think we avoid the apps runner. 
 

But it also won't cut through middle TN 

[TellicoWx]

6 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

The valley wouldn't see as big of a warm surge. But I don't think we avoid the apps runner. 
 

But it also won't cut through middle TN 

And some of the pieces that normally protect my area gets weakened or taken away.

[housemtnTN]

Just saw on Ryan Hall, from what I'vegathered this system is apparently capable of or is in the process of creating thunder snow/sleet/ice.

[GBOVolz]

Just saw on Ryan Hall, from what I'vegathered this system is apparently capable of or is in the process of creating thunder snow/sleet/ice.

I posted this yesterday… these are lighting strikes being picked up by the 3K NAM



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[Scottie16]

Things are definitely trending to being colder than forecasted


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[Matthew70]

Nashville is now included in a major impact.

[housemtnTN]

4 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

I posted this yesterday… these are lighting strikes being picked up by the 3K NAM



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That's so cool. The last and only time I ever saw thundersnow was in 1998 in the tri cities. I was a kid then, we had goten nearly 2ft of snow.

[Scottie16]

Snow moving into Memphis & Mississippi.


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[Carvers Gap]

@fountainguy97

National Weather Service Morristown TN
816 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 813 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

- Tonight will remain dry with seasonally cool temperatures.

- A significant winter storm will impact the region, primarily
  Saturday PM through Saturday night. All types of precipitation
  (rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow) are expected.

- The heaviest snow and sleet accumulations (around 3 inches or
  locally higher) are most likely along the Tennessee/Kentucky
  state line and into southwest Virginia. The heaviest ice
  accumulations (over 0.25 inches) are most likely along the
  Cumberland Plateau/southern plateau, central and northeast East
  Tennessee, and just north of Interstate 40/81. Snow
  accumulations will be more limited further south with ice
  accumulations more uncertain along the foothills and southern
  Valley.

- High winds expected across the foothills of the mountains and
  ridge tops on Saturday night into Sunday.

- Extreme cold temperatures are expected Monday into Tuesday with
  highs well below freezing and overnight lows approaching or
  falling below 0. Lower wind chills are expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 813 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Based on the latest model data and recent trends, Unicoi, Carter,
and Johnson Counties have been added into the Winter Storm
Warning. The better snow accumulations, nearing 2 inches or more,
look to be in Johnson County. All counties look to see ice
accumulations at or above 0.25 inches in some portion of them.
This is less confident in places like Elizabethton and Hampton due
to local downsloping effects, but other portions of Carter County
are expected to see more significant ice accumulations. This also
better matches up with places to our south and east.

 

[GBOVolz]

The way this thing has gone for the past week, I have absolutely no reason to believe it’s gonna play out the way the mods say it’s going to. Either it’s gonna snow way more than anybody thinks it’s going to or it’s gonna rain the whole time.


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[Carvers Gap]

Of note above from MRX regarding NE TN...Carter and Unicoi counties have been added to the WSW.

[fountainguy97]

lol. A 67 page thread for this type of forecast..

One thing this storm has done is created a very hostile environment on Facebook for any meteorologist. The comments under this are just sad honestly. 

 

[Mrwolf1972]

Hrr at 24 just put lp in middle tn

[Math/Met]

23 minutes ago, housemtnTN said:

That's so cool. The last and only time I ever saw thundersnow was in 1998 in the tri cities. I was a kid then, we had goten nearly 2ft of snow.

That was an incredible snowstorm. It's hard to even explain to people how hard it snowed for a relatively short period of time. Wish I had video from that.

[housemtnTN]

It really was incredible. The most vivid memory I have of it was from just looking up outside at night and seeing the sheer size of the flakes combined with the thunder and lightning.