1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Tucker1027]

[WishingForWarmWeather]

4 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

Looking at this from Clarksville and every run of the NAM has been worse and worse and worse and worse…

[Matthew70]

5 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

Oh heck no.  Thankfully it’s the GFS

[TellicoWx]

MRX not do an AFD around 4pm today? Noticed ice cumulation map changed

[Tucker1027]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

MRX not do an AFD around 4pm today? Noticed ice cumulation map changed

Nothing from MRX has been updated since 1:30 or so 

[Carvers Gap]

@Matthew70refused to concede that winter was over during the December chinook.  Looks like he paid his bill.  This is a nice receipt!!!  45/50 states have winter weather products issued. 24 states have winter storm warnings issued for the same storm while 8 states have ice storm warnings for that same system.  

[Stovepipe]

18z NAM has TYS topping out at 48 degrees Sunday evening.  At the same time it's hi-res version and GFS are 34.

[Tucker1027]

[Jed33]

12 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

MRX not do an AFD around 4pm today? Noticed ice cumulation map changed

They haven’t done 4PM updates in months. They update the afd around 12:45-1:45 PM and AM every day and that’s it. I assume it’s the budget cuts. I could be wrong. They very seldom, and I mean very seldom will update in the 9:45-11AM or PM range nowadays and one of those days was today. They also do their zone forecasts the same way. It’s kinda sad.

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, Jed33 said:

They haven’t done 4PM updates in months. They update the afd around 12:45-1:45 PM and AM every day and that’s it. I assume it’s the budget cuts. I could be wrong. They very seldom, and I mean very seldom will update in the 9:45-11AM or PM range nowadays and one of those days was today. They also do their zone forecasts the same way. It’s kinda sad.

Lol...shows how often I read them

[Scottie16]

Lol...shows how often I read them

Tellico keep me updated on your backyard. I wanna see how long it takes for my cold to get to you from sweetwater.


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[Greyhound]

18z NAM has TYS topping out at 48 degrees Sunday evening.  At the same time it's hi-res version and GFS are 34.

That’s crazy!!! So I guess all the data from the hurricane hunters really didn’t help these models narrow down a consensus??


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[TellicoWx]

4 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Tellico keep me updated on your backyard. I wanna see how long it takes for my cold to get to you from sweetwater.


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If you wanna watch in real time...use Wunderground PWS site. I can but I'm at work. Some of the stations update every 10 seconds, it's what I use for real time obs

[nrgjeff]

MRX ice chart looks reasonable to me. I have not looked at microclimates north of say Cleveland, Tenn. Generally seems to get the downslope foothills and cold stuck a little north side of Great Valley. I like it a lot around Chatty and surrounding mountains. 

GFS is too far south. I am not at all concerned about its local ice forecast. RAP might as well plant a Quebec flag in North Mississippi. Quebec basically has the North American ice storm of record from 1998. No I don't believe that's in the cards, but MEM 1994 (displaced south) could be.

[Matthew70]

28 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

@Matthew70refused to concede that winter was over during the December chinook.  Looks like he paid his bill.  This is a nice receipt!!!  45/50 states have winter weather products issued. 24 states have winter storm warnings issued for the same storm while 8 states have ice storm warnings for that same system.  

Might be a lot of people don’t like me after this if they don’t have electricity for a while.  Lol. 

[TellicoWx]

@Scottie16 A typical front takes 45 mins to an hour to make the trip from Sweetwater to Tellico

[ShawnEastTN]

That’s crazy!!! So I guess all the data from the hurricane hunters really didn’t help these models narrow down a consensus??


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These wide differences is partly why I don't trust the huge surface warming and think it might be over done. The other part is just climatology and frequency of occurrence. While big dramatic warmups have happened they are just less common in general. Usually if a warm up does occur it's usually like what the GFS is advertising with a degree or 2 above freezing, rarely a 20+ degree rise during warm nose. It may actually happen but my gut tells me this is over done, and my gut also tells me this low goes further east before shooting NE. One thing I do know the wild animals know something is up. Today I saw 10 deer on the move together across the back of my property, in over 20 years here I've never seen that many moving together as a herd on my property. I also saw several squirrels out digging up some of their cached acorns, even a couple chipmunks which this time of the year I don't normally see so much activity all in the same day. The wild animals know something is moving in and they are preparing.

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[TellicoWx]

15 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

MRX ice chart looks reasonable to me. I have not looked at microclimates north of say Cleveland, Tenn. Generally seems to get the downslope foothills and cold stuck a little north side of Great Valley. I like it a lot around Chatty and surrounding mountains. 

GFS is too far south. I am not at all concerned about its local ice forecast. RAP might as well plant a Quebec flag in North Mississippi. Quebec basically has the North American ice storm of record from 1998. No I don't believe that's in the cards, but MEM 1994 (displaced south) could be.

The earlier chart made more sense as far as here in Monroe Co...New one upped the totals for Tellico and the Skyway which would be almost unheard of if it happened.

If it was a model output, it would honestly go in the trash bin here.

[nrgjeff]

Broadly, the case for the warmup is a robust southern flow. This is much stronger than a usual winter system. Column is TOTALLY saturated up to 400 mb or higher, offering little chance for evaporative cooling regardless of how strong the lift. Recon actually helped models key in on the kinetic strength and moisture depth. I don't wanna be the downer, but we always knew it could go either way. Went warmer. Also remember in the day 8-14 range CPC highlighted this as a Heavy Rain event. Well, we're almost full circle.

[John1122]

We're down 9 degrees the last hour. 

 

[TellicoWx]

@nrgjeffnot at all saying it's wrong for Chatty btw, just it doesn't make sense here for the foothill/mtn.

[ShawnEastTN]

Case for the warmup is a robust southern flow. This is much stronger than a usual winter system. Column is TOTALLY saturated up to 400 mb or higher, offering little chance for evaporative cooling regardless of how strong the lift. Recon actually helped models key in on the strength and moisture depth. I don't wanna be the downer, but we always knew it could go either way. Went warmer. Also remember in the day 8-14 range CPC highlighted this as a Heavy Rain event. Well, we're almost full circle.

I don't think you are being a downer at all, I would really rather not have a huge ice storm.

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[Carvers Gap]

11 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Broadly, the case for the warmup is a robust southern flow. This is much stronger than a usual winter system. Column is TOTALLY saturated up to 400 mb or higher, offering little chance for evaporative cooling regardless of how strong the lift. Recon actually helped models key in on the kinetic strength and moisture depth. I don't wanna be the downer, but we always knew it could go either way. Went warmer. Also remember in the day 8-14 range CPC highlighted this as a Heavy Rain event. Well, we're almost full circle.

In sports, they say if you "turn the corner" enough...you might end up right where you started. 

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

I don't think you are being a downer at all, I would really rather not have a huge ice storm.

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No power would kind of put a dent in tracking future winter storms.  Give me some light snow Thursday w/ that front.

[TellicoWx]

Not sure if it was mentioned at 12z, but looping 18z Euro AI at hr 36..it is now slower bringing my area above freezing

[Greyhound]

In sports, they say if you "turn the corner" enough...you might end up right where you started. 

Speaking of sports, saw this on Twitter/X




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[Carvers Gap]

And ya'll.  I can tell you after Helene...you don't want to be without power.  No hot water.  No wifi.  No way to easily charge phones without a generator.  And internet w/ your cell provider is iffy as everyone else is on it as well.  During the fall...no AC is not pleasant either.  I can't imagine doing that with below zero temps.  We have alternate power and heating sources, but whew - it's work without power.   During Helene, we had boil water advisories to boot - sucked!!!!  At night, candles are great but flashlights are better.  I went out and bought a bunch of candles and extra lights after Helene.  Generators are incredibly valuable.  I wish I had solar chargers for phones.  

[AMZ8990]

Local Mets in Memphis seem to be basing their totals off the GFS for west tn 

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Greyhound said:

Speaking of sports, saw this on Twitter/X




.

Feels like -20.  Nope.  Haha.

[TellicoWx]

I've went from .1" before hitting freezing at 6z to .5" on the 18z...Euro AI

 

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