1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I'm having to use imgur for gifs instead of giphy now because of resolution problems, so you may have to refresh the page to make the gif go in motion after you see it the first time. 

[John1122]

When the phase happens with energy going over gl with the energy in the Pac NW and Baja, we get the SE ridge in response and poleward she goes. 

When we need a triple phase bomb further east these things fly to the 4 corners of the globe to avoid it. 

[Reb]

Does anyone have the GEFS outputs?

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

With regards to the GFS, it looks to me like the shortwave that was phasing just kicked out in front of it so quick, it helps to suppress heights to the east

There is still a small shortwave diving down through Oregon and CA that phase with the Baja low, but the larger piece stays separate. 

Yes.  That is what it looked like on the surface.  The bulk of it comes out first.  Now which model would be guilty of holding too much energy back?

[Mrwolf1972]

Don't know if this is correct one 

 

[*Flash*]

1 hour ago, Reb said:

 

Truck yeah!

[Mrwolf1972]

Or this one

[Mrwolf1972]

Euro has started

[Holston_River_Rambler]

3 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

 

Don't know if this is correct one

 

I prefer this one 

[Reb]

Euro AIFS went north, lets see what his big brother says.

[Mrwolf1972]

2 minutes ago, Reb said:

Euro AIFS went north, lets see what his big brother says.

But it don't stay above freezing long quick back below

[Mrwolf1972]

Just now, Mrwolf1972 said:

But it don't stay above freezing long quick back below

A step in the positive. 

[Mrwolf1972]

Looks so much like gfs here

[Mrwolf1972]

Then we loose it. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro is a smidge south with the lp nosing into TN from the gulf vs 12z at hour 87z. 

[Tucker1027]

This is a model war….. and the loser might not recover.


.

[Mrwolf1972]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Euro is a smidge south with the lp nosing into TN from the gulf vs 12z at hour 87z. 

Yes the LP stays south of Tennessee just to amped

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I don’t think that seems a great run at first glance but I do think there was a nod towards the GFS wrt having the shortwaves less in sync. 

[Reb]

1 minute ago, Tucker1027 said:

This is a model war….. and the loser might not recover.


.

We will make @AMZ8990 the scapegoat since he created the thread. That's how this works, right?

[Mrwolf1972]

Unlinke the 12z the lp didn't go north into the mountains it stays in ga

[Holston_River_Rambler]

And of course pretty much all the panels but the H5 ones are populating on weatherbell lol 

[Mrwolf1972]

Baby steps we still have 2 days and tomorrow we will get the info from the flight. 

[Silas Lang]

2 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Unlinke the 12z the lp didn't go north into the mountains it stays in ga

I will take the better low placement regardless! I still think Euro is too warm. Wonder if we will see a sort of middle ground develop between models. Honestly anything but inches of ice would be nice at this point. 

[WishingForWarmWeather]

Can someone give us a Play by Play of the Euro or another panel of where it has the ice line when it’s over TN? Sorry if I’m asking for too much just at work and can’t see it right now. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Found the 500mb panels on pivotal and there is def less phasing between the big northern stream shortwave and the Baja low. Certainly not like the mess that started this last night at 18z.

cannot make a gif right now 

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, Tucker1027 said:

Updated from Channel 3


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If that’s correct.  It’s lights out & a true disaster for TN. 

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I will never say anything bad about the GFS again if that comes to fruition.   My man is not giving up without a fight.

Let’s all hug the gfs.  Make it feel loved. 

[Stovepipe]

 

@Carvers Gap Full speed ahead!!

[Reb]

Just now, Kasper said:

Let’s hope not @Stovepipeyou got something for this??

He has retreated to only bringing the lulz it appears

[Matthew70]

3 minutes ago, Reb said:

He has retreated to only bringing the lulz it appears

We all need some laughs after the letdown.  The Euro says what frozen precip.  By the time it’s done going north we’re gonna be sunny and 70s with severe storms of tornadoes.