1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS is a true over-running event.  First wave rolls in flat w/ energy being held back over Texas.  Next wave should be inbound in a sec...likely ice.

[GBOVolz]

12z GFS is snow for the northern 2/3 of the forum for the first wave.  [mention=1186]tnweathernut[/mention], that sure looks like it is going to string out into two waves...or more.

And this has been shown off and on for a few days up until yesterday afternoon


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[Carvers Gap]

Whew, dog....would I hate to have to be making a forecast for this.  At 99, there is a slp sitting right over Hatteras w/ precip strung back to New Mexico.

[Carvers Gap]

Haha.  So much fun.  At 102, there is the ICON's Panhandle slp w/ frozen precip over the forum area...ice to sleet to snow the further one heads to NW TN.

[tnweathernut]

Almost unbelievable, but the NBM at 12z is almost unchanged.  Surely it changes this afternoon.............?

[Wurbus]

Wow....if that happens Knoxville going to be out of power for a while. 6-8" of snow with .5-1" of ice on top and probably another layer of snow on top of the ice.

[Carvers Gap]

And now we wait for what appears to be an inland runner at 108.  Absolutely no way any model would have this worked out quiet yet...if that is even real.  The 12z ICON is very similar to the GFS FWIW.

[Coach B]

Just now, tnweathernut said:

Almost unbelievable, but the NBM at 12z is almost unchanged.  Surely it changes this afternoon.............?

The NBM....and the actual forecast from the NWS always seem to lag model changes by quite a bit. 

[Scottie16]

Whew, dog....would I hate to have to be making a forecast for this.  At 99, there is a slp sitting right over Hatteras w/ precip strung back to New Mexico.

I would absolutely not be on socials if I were a met.


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[Carvers Gap]

Haha.  An inland runner out of all of that.  

[Scottie16]

GFS struggled with CAD but it’s another trend. No model has this figured out.


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[dwagner88]

No snow at all for Chattanooga proper on that GFS run. Just ice.

[ladyjmayo]

3 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

Wow....if that happens Knoxville going to be out of power for a while. 6-8" of snow with .5-1" of ice on top and probably another layer of snow on top of the ice.

That would be absolute insanity. 

[Scottie16]

Haha.  An inland runner out of all of that.  

Coulda been crazy. Haha


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[GBOVolz]

Ratio clown map looks stout but no idea how much of that is sleet


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[kvskelton]

2 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

No snow at all for Chattanooga proper on that GFS run. Just ice.

Maybe just a touch between hours 72 and 75? Regardless, that would be brutal for Chattanooga if that GFS run verifies.

[Wurbus]

With all that being said, the GFS has handled the baja low very differently from every other model since this started a few days go. Hopefully we will get a consensus once the low is sampled today.

[Silas Lang]

Wait, so a surface low off the gulf and off the coast per GFS? How common is that? 

Man, this looks complicated. No wonder for the yoyo results. 

[Wurbus]

Canadian looks similar to last run. Amped and thermals are a mess.

[Carvers Gap]

So, snow w/ the first wave(prior to this slide).  Then, it is a classic overrunning event w/ waves just riding the west-east gradient.  The last of the energy kicks out and that low in the Panhandle transfers its energy to the low at Hatteras.  E TN ends w/ heavy snow.  12-14" of snow for areas about 50 miles north of the Tenn state line - statewide.  Has to be crazy amounts of ice south of it.  I am only describing the model....I make ZERO claim as to its accuracy and not sure I even agree w/ it.  However, that is a plausible scenario if the low doesn't consolidate and the high is strong.  I continue to struggle to believe that it is going to rain w/ a 1050 hp leading this off...but I know it can happened.  IF that is the likely evolution of the system...just about zero chance this is even remotely nailed down.

[dwagner88]

GFS and Canadian are a disastrous ice storm for southern areas. Time to start rooting for a 33 degree rain. Looks like a snowy solution is out for the southern valley.

[Scottie16]

Carver,

My soundings show supercell activity with the Canadian and GFS.


Curious if that would indicate thundersnow possibly?


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[tnweathernut]

If you remove the American modeling, you'd have a much cleaner picture.   Keeping the American modeling a consideration leads one to believe a wide range of possibilities are still on the table.  As much as I'd like to lean on all things American, it's almost impossible in this situation.  

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEM is an ice storm for the eastern 2/3 of the forum.  I have barely looked at the synoptics as I was watching the GFS.

[Scottie16]

GFS and Canadian are a disastrous ice storm for southern areas. Time to start rooting for a 33 degree rain. Looks like a snowy solution is out for the southern valley.

Not by a long shot. This is far from over for the whole east coast.


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[housemtnTN]

What a mess, kinda like this system!

Is it typical for them to fly into stuff like this when it's not a hurricane??

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Scottie16 said:

Carver,

My soundings show supercell activity with the Canadian and GFS.


Curious if that would indicate thundersnow possibly?


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Strong rates falling into below freezing temps is not without precedent.  

[GBOVolz]

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[Matthew70]

The Euro is king.  Bet the house on the Euro.  It says mostly rain.  That’s what it will be.  The GFS is on an island by itself.  GEM/UKIE/EURO vs American models.  It’s check mate.

[nrgjeff]

Speaking of the NBM, it keeps spitting out crippling ice forecasts.
Its snow is robust north of there, but more like a foot than these 18-24 inch forecasts. Ensemble could dampen out the heaviest snow band, so there's upside. Just this ice. wow once in 20 years.