1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[WishingForWarmWeather]

9 minutes ago, brewman22001 said:

Actually, I don’t think they know what it’s gonna do. It’s changed every run, so until we’re 12 hours out from it, I’m not buying into anything. I’ve learned that if you don’t like the weather here wait five minutes it’ll change.. I’ve already bought two things of milk and a lot of vanilla flavoring and sugar for the tons of snow cream I was gonna make. We need to tell this system I’m already too bought into it.


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Ooo - how do I make this with my son?

[GBOVolz]

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[Matthew70]

8 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

Definitely dropped amounts.  

[TellicoWx]

Think we are still a ways from the final solution...trend loop the 850 and you can see how it has bounced 50-100 miles one way or the other. That small change changes the angle degree up the valley. Due to its shape a 10°-20° change can be the difference between a nose attempting to ram into the Apps (lessens how far it blasts north) or runs it parallel (allows it to free run to 40/KY line). Phasing changes the 850 wind speed (the turbo charger for the nose). The combo of those two will make it seem like the system "jumped" all of a sudden run to run...jmo.

 

Edit...wind angle degree 

[brewman22001]

Ooo - how do I make this with my son?

8–10 cups fresh, clean snow (approx. 1/2 gallon)
1.5 cup milk (whole milk or half-and-half recommended for creaminess)
1 cup granulated sugar (adjust to taste)
3 tsp vanilla extract

I live mine extremely sweet. You can adjust any of those ingredients to how you prefer.

Let’s get some snow in here where we can make some


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[Nash_LSU]

13 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

If the NBM is still on board, so am I. 

[ShawnEastTN]

What’s the 00z NBM totals look like?

0z NMB, yanked from James Spann, as I don't have a pro account on Pivotal.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[Hurricaneguy]

6 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

0z NMB, yanked from James Spann, as I don't have a pro account on Pivotal.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

 

 Thank you! No surprise NBM went down in East TN after that Euro run 

[fountainguy97]

00z nam starting off with a major trend toward a early phase.

[ShawnEastTN]

1 minute ago, Hurricaneguy said:

 Thank you! No surprise NBM went down in East TN after that Euro run 

Yeah not entirely surprising, don't really see a change in ice accumulation though which I would have expected to increase with the 18z Euro.

[Daniel Boone]

Just now, Hurricaneguy said:

 Thank you! No surprise NBM went down in East TN after that Euro run 

Yep. The other was the 18Z. It looked like the 18Z Euro hadn't been used in it. Must have been 12Z in it. Ensembles are used in the NBM as well.

[Tucker1027]

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[WintryMixmaster]

4 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

00z nam starting off with a major trend toward a early phase.

Yeah that's not what we wanted to see... does the long range NAM still have a bias towards over-amping things? Because it already has sleet from Knoxville southwest at 84 hours

[TellicoWx]

2 minutes ago, WintryMixmaster said:

Yeah that's not what we wanted to see... does the long range NAM still have a bias towards over-amping things? Because it already has sleet from Knoxville southwest at 84 hours

Thing could show 12" of snow right over the top of me and would say same thing.."it's bias is toward a trash can". outside 24-36 hrs. Physics engine is so fine tuned to micros, that outside that window..chaos theory has consumed it lol.

[WishingForWarmWeather]

22 minutes ago, brewman22001 said:

8–10 cups fresh, clean snow (approx. 1/2 gallon)
1.5 cup milk (whole milk or half-and-half recommended for creaminess)
1 cup granulated sugar (adjust to taste)
3 tsp vanilla extract

I live mine extremely sweet. You can adjust any of those ingredients to how you prefer.

Let’s get some snow in here where we can make some


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Can’t wait!!

[WintryMixmaster]

7 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Thing could show 12" of snow right over the top of me and would say same thing.."it's bias is toward a trash can". outside 24-36 hrs. Physics engine is so fine tuned to micros, that outside that window..chaos theory has consumed it lol.

My NAM rule is usually, "if it shows a lot of warmth or a warm nose, it's right. If it shows an unusual amount of snow or snow that no other model shows, it's wrong"

[John1122]

The NAM at the end show a classic winter storm set up for our area. A big 1045H in SE Minnesota with subzero cold under it. Precip sliding West to East. The sleet area is literally about 1 degree in the upper levels from being snow. With no flow off the gulf at that hour, it should be snow. 

[Carvers Gap]

Ain't no way in hell I am using the NAM at range - good or bad.  Haha.  

[Vol4Life]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

The NAM at the end show a classic winter storm set up for our area. A big 1045H in SE Minnesota with subzero cold under it. Precip sliding West to East. The sleet area is literally about 1 degree in the upper levels from being snow. With no flow off the gulf at that hour, it should be snow. 

Looked pretty juicy too…which could just be the NAM over amping

[Vol4Life]

ICON 00z is on deck.  Out to about 30 on Pivotal.

[1234snow]

That piece of Montana energy has been there, but it doesn't get connected with the Baja energy on the good runs today. On 18z it did and three pieces phased. It could be the final look, but triple phasers are rare. That said, your area still got huge snow totals on the 18z from what I could tell. I did decently as well. If you'd told me a week ago that I'd be in like to get 6+ inches of snow with some freezing rain, I'd have jumped on it all day. But once you see 20 inches on a euro run and 15+ across all modeling the perspective changes. Its rare to get chances at truly historic snow events. 

I tracked that extra lobe all the way north of Alaska close to the arctic circle. On 18z Euro it dives straight down into the middle of the Baja low and other northern stream trough in Montana for the triple phase. Other runs of Euro and other models have this lobe of vorticity but had it east.

Anywho stuff like that is sitting close to the Arctic circle and is poorly sampled for bad trends or good trends.

[Matthew70]

I was catching up on th SE forum.  I had no idea J Burns had passed away.  

[Matthew70]

I’m riding the NAM because it sounds like the model to jump on board with.  Lol

[Daniel Boone]

9 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

I tracked that extra lobe all the way north of Alaska close to the arctic circle. On 18z Euro it dives straight down into the middle of the Baja low and other northern stream trough in Montana for the triple phase. Other runs of Euro and other models have this lobe of vorticity but had it east.

Anywho stuff like that is sitting close to the Arctic circle and is poorly sampled for bad trends or good trends.

Yeah, that's what Webb was alluding to ; it dropping further West. He's basically saying we don't want that to continue.

[WintryMixmaster]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, that's what Webb was alluding to ; it dropping further West. He's basically saying we don't want that to continue.

So in other words, this is a bad trend on the ICON?

[Hurricaneguy]

00z Icon rough for snow in East TN. Not the start we wanted. If GFS and Euro show this I’m stepping away for a day or so. 

[John1122]

ICON is another major major winter storm. Snow to some zr and back to snow. 

[Carvers Gap]

0z ICON is on the board w/ a southerly trend.

[John1122]

Better than 12z and 18z was heading here. 

 

[WintryMixmaster]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

ICON is another major major winter storm. Snow to some zr and back to snow. 

It seemed like the 500mb maps looked pretty different but only a minor tick north/towards more moisture from 18z