1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Daniel Boone]

I wonder what the Setup was for the Record 3 Day Snowstorm back in early December 1886 that buried Knoxville under 2 Feet of Snow ? 

[MattPetrulli]

Anyone know single day snowfall record for Sevierville? I tried finding records but couldn't and asked MRX but they haven't responded yet. Asking incase it gets surpassed this weekend. 

 

[Scottie16]

Icon is loading the barrel at 102 hours.


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[Scottie16]

Icon at 108




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[Wurbus]

I think the Icon is caving and pulling the baja low onshore

[Jeff Co Vol]

1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

Anyone know single day snowfall record for Sevierville? I tried finding records but couldn't and asked MRX but they haven't responded yet.

 

[TellicoWx]

Icon with a bang to open 0z

[Reb]

Icon mirroring the Euro at first glance

[Scottie16]

I’m not so weenie anymore. This could be devastating for some.


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[TellicoWx]

Icon

[Daniel Boone]

10 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

I wonder what the Setup was for the Record 3 Day Snowstorm back in early December 1886 that buried Knoxville under 2 Feet of Snow ? 

I couldn't find the Map. Used to find old one's dating way back. Did find it was a Miller A that ran up the Coast. Apparently a slow mover . Probable blocking upstream. It was Dec. 3-6 th.

[Tucker1027]

I’m not so weenie anymore. This could be devastating for some.


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Does not look fun for us in Chattanooga


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[John1122]

The ICON was still more progressive than the Euro, but managed to dump 10-12 inches. 

Chattanooga gets nearly an inch of QPF on there with temps from 26 to 29. 

[Wurbus]

Good run by the Icon. Moves the system out a little faster than Euro, but good trends from that model. Brought that baja low inland, unlike 12z. Hopefully GFS finally caves to that solution.

[WintryMixmaster]

1 minute ago, Tucker1027 said:

Does not look fun for us in Chattanooga


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Even in Knoxville, I don't like how close we are to that snow/ice line. A 50-100 mile jog north would put us in a world of pain, and a north trend with this kind of system seems like something that could easily happen. This reminds me of that arcade game where you have to steer the marble down the sidewinder-shaped course to the goal, except each model suite between now and Saturday is a new turn north or south and the goal is a snowstorm for the whole valley. Suppression! Cutter! More suppression! Notably, I could never win that game...

[tnweathernut]

Just now, John1122 said:

The ICON was still more progressive than the Euro, but managed to dump 10-12 inches. 

Chattanooga gets nearly an inch of QPF on there with temps from 26 to 29. 

In the January 1988 storm, there’s a freezing rain report from Chattanooga and a surface temp of 25

[Vol4Life]

2 minutes ago, WintryMixmaster said:

Even in Knoxville, I don't like how close we are to that snow/ice line. A 50-100 mile jog north would put us in a world of pain, and a north trend with this kind of system seems like something that could easily happen. This reminds me of that arcade game where you have to steer the marble down the sidewinder-shaped course to the goal, except each model suite between now and Saturday is a new turn north or south and the goal is a snowstorm for the whole valley. Suppression! Cutter! More suppression! Notably, I could never win that game...

Totally agree.  Plus, even though I’m in Knox, I would love for Chattanooga to get all snow

[WintryMixmaster]

1 minute ago, Vol4Life said:

Totally agree.  Plus, even though I’m in Knox, I would love for Chattanooga to get all snow

I feel like every big storm that's hit since I got here has had some kind of screw axis. Maryville/the foothills got screwed in January 2024. Chattanooga got screwed in March 2022. Knoxville north got screwed (a little, relative to forecast) by the January 2025 storm while Chattanooga cashed in. Now that I lived here long enough I can see why its so hard to have the whole valley from Bristol down to Chattanooga score from the same storm. I'd take rain over ice though if that warm nose is going to creep up the valley

[ShawnEastTN]

Even in Knoxville, I don't like how close we are to that snow/ice line. A 50-100 mile jog north would put us in a world of pain, and a north trend with this kind of system seems like something that could easily happen. This reminds me of that arcade game where you have to steer the marble down the sidewinder-shaped course to the goal, except each model suite between now and Saturday is a new turn north or south and the goal is a snowstorm for the whole valley. Suppression! Cutter! More suppression! Notably, I could never win that game...

Not to forget there will likely be a band of sleet and graupel between the ZR and the snow. While sleet isn't devastating to infrastructure it is devastating to my feelings when I get stuck under it. Would suck to get 3" of sleet while just up the road gets a foot plus snow. Sleet just eats snow totals right up.

My first post of the season, glad to have something fun to track, feels like it's been forever since this type of storm.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[MattPetrulli]

19 minutes ago, Jeff Co Vol said:

That's sevier county including Mt Leconte I believe.

[TellicoWx]

Wouldn't take the line verbatim on a global..resolution is too large. Can't say 100% without the Sharpy, but 850s dont make the line as scary looking as the output does.

[WintryMixmaster]

2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Not to forget there will likely be a band of sleet and graupel between the ZR and the snow. While sleet isn't devastating to infrastructure it is devastating to my feelings when I get stuck under it. Would suck to get 3" of sleet while just up the road gets a foot plus snow. Sleet just eats snow totals right up.

My first post of the season, glad to have something fun to track, feels like it's been forever since this type of storm.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

 

Especially if it's snow to mix to snow, which Knox County would be if we shifted the ICON like 30 more miles north. My back already hurts imagining shoveling that

[Jeff Co Vol]

1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

That's sevier county including Mt Leconte I believe.

Could be

[Vol4Life]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

Wouldn't take the line verbatim on a global..resolution is too large. Can't say 100% without the Sharpy, but 850s dont make the line as scary looking as the output does.

Good to know!

[WintryMixmaster]

Just now, TellicoWx said:

Wouldn't take the line verbatim on a global..resolution is too large. Can't say 100% without the Sharpy, but 850s dont make the line as scary looking as the output does.

Yeah definitely not taking the ICON of all models at this range as verbatim, but I feel like usually when a global model has the line in the southern valley, the higher res models start creeping that north county by county once they get into range. Granted I haven't lived here as long as most posters here so they probably know the microclimates best. I actually felt better about the suppression solution lol

[TellicoWx]

Now southern counties west of plateau is a slightly different story on 850s..nose nudges up there a little more.

[ShawnEastTN]

Now southern counties west of plateau is a slightly different story on 850s..nose nudges up there a little more.

Yeah Bradley and Polk often get more warm nose nudging in it seems from this type of setup, even more than Hamilton I believe.

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[Wurbus]

High is a little stronger on the GFS this run. Coming in around 1051-1052 through 81

[John1122]

The GFS looks like it's more connected to the Baja Low. Likely to look more like the Icon if it continues. 

[Wurbus]

Looks like the baja low is closer to the coast and it is trying to pull it in