1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Weatheriscool]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I don't think so.

I admire your optimism lol

[Weatheriscool]

Just now, TellicoWx said:

AIFs is on the northern end, GFS on southern end...as @Carvers Gapsaid earlier today, the cone is shrinking each passing run

Well that does make sense. I shouldn't get attached to one model run, plenty of eye candy coming up between now and the event!

[TellicoWx]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Most of that in the forum area is frozen.  Some of you might sneak above freezing for a bit.  Snow or ZR.  Trended south.   I threw in the both full run and storm clown map if you wanted it.

 

Crazy how the second system almost tracks the same on all 18z runs so far

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Weatheriscool said:

I admire your optimism lol

It isn't optimism.  It is the 18z Euro.  Boom.

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

It isn't optimism.  It is the 18z Euro.  Boom.

Op...went boom?

 

Sorry, only got the free pivotalweather 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Weatheriscool said:

Well that does make sense. I shouldn't get attached to one model run, plenty of eye candy coming up between now and the event!

If the Euro locks in over the next 2-3 runs along w/ the EPS....I think that is a very good thing.  I have learned never to speak in absolutes in this hobby.  Arrogance would be a pathway to egg on my face!  

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, TellicoWx said:

Op...went boom?

Basically a repeat of 12z.  Consistency and a big run which stops at 144.

[Weatheriscool]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Basically a repeat of 12z.  Consistency and a big run which stops at 144.

Maps? 

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Weatheriscool said:

Maps? 

The 12z map is almost identical.  I will grab one in a minute if someone else doesn't post it.  Just remember, the 18z is still mid-storm when that map cuts off.  Maybe take 50 miles off the north side - maybe.

[Mrwolf1972]

Euro 18z looks same as the 12z

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Euro 18z looks same as the 12z

Thank you!  And that is still mid-storm.  It is still snowing over the entire forum area at that hour (144).

[Mrwolf1972]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

And that is still mid-storm.  It is still snowing over the entire forum area at that hour (144).

Yep 

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Euro 18z looks same as the 12z

That's not even kuchera...12:1 to 15:1

[Matthew70]

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Most of that in the forum area is frozen.  Some of you might sneak above freezing for a bit.  Snow or ZR.  Trended south.   I threw in the both full run and storm clown map if you wanted it.   

 

Does these maps include ice & sleet?

Also that is 10:1 ratios.  It will be higher than that.  Maybe we all will get to say 

ITS PUKING SNOW!!!!

[Kasper]

4 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Euro 18z looks same as the 12z

[Weatheriscool]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Thank you!  And that is still mid-storm.  It is still snowing over the entire forum area at that hour (144).

That's crazy that it's still snowing lol

[Weatheriscool]

So what is everyone general thoughts on the pattern is this one and done or could we have another system in February?

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Weatheriscool said:

That's crazy that it's still snowing lol

Here are two slides.  The second slide is when the map cuts off.

 

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, Matthew70 said:

Does these maps include ice & sleet?

Also that is 10:1 ratios.  It will be higher than that.  Maybe we all will get to say 

ITS PUKING SNOW!!!!

Euro doesn't include sleet/ice in its raw output data..unless host site algos it

[John1122]

That Euro was the whole hog. 12+ most everywhere and still snowing. 

[Carvers Gap]

When the AIFS and Euro get close to a similar solution...that is a good thing.  Very slight trend south on the 18z Euro...50 miles?  Looks like maybe some coastal backing to boot.

[John1122]

Ratio European. Still rolling state wide at this time. 

 

[TellicoWx]

Whoever is just on the north side of the pink line is going to get smashed on the Euro setup.

[Carvers Gap]

Some Kuchera, ice, and sleet maps for the 18z Euro...

 

[TellicoWx]

Those southern TN border counties would be in bad shape 4"-8" encapsulated with ice on top, then back to snow potentially

[Math/Met]

I haven't logged in for a long time. Figured this might be a good time. Hope everyone is doing well.

[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, Math/Met said:

I haven't logged in for a long time. Figured this might be a good time. Hope everyone is doing well.

Great to have you back.  You may have picked a really good time to reappear.

[Matthew70]

3 minutes ago, Math/Met said:

I haven't logged in for a long time. Figured this might be a good time. Hope everyone is doing well.

Good to see you!  Welcome back!

[brewman22001]

I haven't logged in for a long time. Figured this might be a good time. Hope everyone is doing well.

Welcome back!! Definitely some fun stuff going on!! I’m super pumped for this weekend!!


.

[Bigbald]

10 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Ratio European. Still rolling state wide at this time. 

 

This has to be an all timer modeled amount within 5 days